Game 14: Protect Wisely!

Himashi G. wrote:WTH guys.
WTH.
I freaking told you that the Misawo thing was benign, even a town-tell.
How is it that, after a day of relative quiet from both of you, Satoru and Sunreeser, you pop out of nowhere, Two hours/15 minutes before the deadline respectively, and vote on the same person, thus overriding the impending Azumi lynch? It's almost like that's exactly what Azumi A. wanted, to keep living so she could keep defending herself and bringing minimal tangible non-self-focused conversation to the table. Funny how you all got what you wanted so cleanly, it almost felt coordinated somehow! I had a sizable pile of accusations against Azumi, and you bypassed that all because of one thing Misawo said which I told you was not scummy.
Today, there is only one option in mine humble opinion. Lynch Azumi A. and carefully inspect you two.
I'm convinced that either A)both of you are mafia just for that stunning display of blatantly anti-town cooperation, B)Satoru is and sunreeser followed along naively, or C)sunreeser jumped on the opportunity the moment she saw a lynch placed by someone other than her scumpartner Azumi in order to distance herself from Azumi when things inevitably turned bad.
As I've said to Azumi, pick your poison.

There are five town left, and three mafia. Potential-MyLo, but plurality doesn't care about what's good for muh town.
If we lynch wrong and fail to protect that night during any of the next three days, we lose. GG Mafia, why does Azumi get points but not me.
If we lynch wrong, but protect correctly, at least it's a classic LyLo. With the added information we get from today, we can make this work if we ain't st00pid.
If we lynch right, but fail to protect, it moves back to the first situation.
If we lynch right and protect right, it's 5-2, we have more leads, town is likely to win if another stupid thing doesn't happen. Town is very likely to win.

My predictions for today:
Azumi A. Will lividly fight for her life today.
Toby J. Will hopefully be more active and pressure against Sunreeser and Satoru S.
Dayton B. Will hopefully be more active and pressure against Sunreeser and Satoru S.
Himashi G. Will lividly pressure against Sunreeser and Satoru S. while voting Azumi.
Sunreeser Will either argue against Himashi G. or against Satoru, possibly will vote Azumi.
Rossi U. Will hopefully rectify the mistakes of his predecessor with an eloquent speech and pressure against Sunreeser and Satoru S.
Kimyo N. Will hopefully be more active and pressure against Sunreeser and Satoru S.
Satoru S. Will either argue against Himashi G. or against Satoru, possibly will vote Azumi.

So, in conclusion, tl;dr:

Spoiler:

Azumi noob wrote:Well, as you saw in the promise I made, which will be the only one I'm making this game, I did not push anyone towards lynching except for the arguments I gave, that they thought it was better to have me alive than having misawo alive is not something I was pushing for, remember what I said?

Azumi noob wrote:sunreeser, himashi and toby. But that idea of me has shifted more towards sunreeser, himashi and satoru. They seem to be perfect together, I have thought about what happened and how himashi picked up on that and it all fits in perfectly imo.

Azumi noob wrote:Himashi just keeps pushing people, hoping something would come out of it so he can push towards a towny, then when it's almost too late for the towny to get saved the normal way his mafia partners lynch someone else to direct even MORE attention to a possible scumteam with the towny, if someone gets saved last moment by 2 people that must be a scumteam right?

Azumi noob wrote:That's the normal thought, and himashi has been going all on about noob scumplays, no surprise for me that there's another "noob scumplay" from my part,

Azumi noob wrote:and obviously himashi points that out again, linking me to his partners is easy enough after what happened, and of course he will go for me first so you can then see I'm a towny and then he's like "Well shit, it was a towny... sorry about that, I really did think he/she was mafia... Seeing as this person was a towny the 2 who saved him/her obviously aren't mafia, that's clear now."

Azumi noob wrote:That is my prediction, don't get blinded by himashi,

Azumi noob wrote:think about what I said and form your own opinion about what happened. Don't let the thing with who is scummier blind you in this case, only think about what happened and think about who is scummier right now, what scenario is likelier or however you spell that. Think for yourselves.

Sunreeser wrote:I am sorry if I didn't make it clear on the Misawo lynch. It was deadline right about when I came on and I had to make a quick decision so I couldn't quote what I wanted in time(What does this mean even... Elaborate pls). Anyways, I want to clarify now. At that moment, I must admit that my mindset was more of "who is least scummy" rather than "who is town"(I think you mean "who is least town" and "who is mafia"). Basically, apart from Toby, Misawo and Azumi were both unclear. I took a look at both their ISOs, and came to conclusion that Misawo was the better lynch option because her posts didn't contribute to town much, while Azumi posts are deeper and more insightful. (i cri evrytiem)

Tl;dr:

I looked at the motives. Azumi seems more of a desperate townie who really wants to play while Misawo just seems like one of those who questions others but doesn't follow up, which I think is scummy. There wasn't really a clear "cut" between the two, so I had to choose who was the better lynch option, which to me, was Misawo. (Ehhh.... I guess I can see that... But I'm not really liking it.)

This doesn't mean Azumi is town. Basically, it means those two were scummy, but if I had to choose, it would be Misawo. Sorry if this wasn't clear, but it is hard to explain my thought process that happened in a rush. I understand that I am responsible of my actions. Please feel free to question me.

Sunreeser wrote:I don't think there is anything to argue against you, at least from my standpoint. (Is this buttering the butthead) If I was to compare you vs Azumi, your posts are way more "free" and less "forced" than Azumi who to me seems very desperate. (If her posts are forced, then what was going on in your mind when you thought she was a self-interested townie) Her latest posts, personally to me, are closer and closer to bold claims rather than evidence. (Aww, c'mon man, that happened yesterday!) I respect where you are coming from that you think it is unjustified, but it is truly what I think at the moment. It was a mislynch, mostly because it was from my feelings. I'll hold off my lynch for now, at least, until further discussions. Gonna rectify this and not let it happen again.

Satoru S. wrote:The difference if you think about it between me lynching Misawo and Sunreeser doing is that I have barely catched up trying not to isolate town and had my reasons. Sure sunreeser says his/her reason but is pretty much a bandwagon. (True, it was an awfully sudden movement, which is why I was/am more suspicious of her) I was hoping for some reactions behind the lynch and not the hammer itself but deadline came. (WTH, looking for reactions two hours before deadline? You had three freaking days!) I see more of azumi being defensive but don't tell me you haven't been pressuring also and redirecting to toby. ('Redirected on Toby'? When did I even...? At least you grasp, basically, my feelings about Azumi.) Tbh I see more of a mafia than a town in azumi. Also I am for the likes of sunreeser of being neutral while active pretty much and jus sharing everything out while not pressuring. Just like fillering in a way. (But you just said she was scummier than you because of the bandwagon/second vote, and now you're saying she's neutral? Are you saying that you're more townie than neutral then? You can't just *make* those posits.)  Lastly I want to talk about kimyo. He barely got in this and all but idk but is playing in more of a neutral way. Well he got barely into the game so eh. (Why the read on Kimyo but not Toby as well?) Also another factor of the game is that the mafia kill took some time to send. This might not be straightforward information and might just be the mafia playing tricks on people but maybe everybody is town in the first place. (WTH-WTH-WTH!) Well so much to think about. Also I was hoping misawo was mafia and then telling nobody to protect themselves so I could protect myself as mafia would've gone for me but then that happened. (Wait wut) Well these are my thoughts so far.

Himashi G. wrote:

Azumi noob wrote:Well, as you saw in the promise I made, which will be the only one I'm making this game, I did not push anyone towards lynching except for the arguments I gave, that they thought it was better to have me alive than having misawo alive is not something I was pushing for, remember what I said?

More on this later, I've a bigger bone to pick at the moment.

Azumi noob wrote:sunreeser, himashi and toby. But that idea of me has shifted more towards sunreeser, himashi and satoru. They seem to be perfect together, I have thought about what happened and how himashi picked up on that and it all fits in perfectly imo.

**
And Toby picked up on that thing too
Is he too good for you

i know i did say i saw toby as scum yesterday but i have to admit i was looking for scum at that moment, and with what happened I switched my view. I believe you are quite possibly a scumteam with saturo/sunreeser

Azumi noob wrote:Himashi just keeps pushing people, hoping something would come out of it so he can push towards a towny, then when it's almost too late for the towny to get saved the normal way his mafia partners lynch someone else to direct even MORE attention to a possible scumteam with the towny, if someone gets saved last moment by 2 people that must be a scumteam right?

1/10 this time, because not very funny
Ever heard of something called "The Law of Parsimony"? Simply put, it states that the more entities or logical links need to be made in order to explain a situation, the exponentially less likely it is to be true, and that if something seems far-fetched, it's because it is. If you see a broken window and a baseball on your floor, you're going to assume that the kids from across the street got too rowdy playing ball and hit it through the window; not that they got too rowdy, hit the ball onto the roof, a bird dislodged it, it rolled off, bounced off the neighbor's house and into the window.
My theory assumes:
-You are mafia, and thus wanted to prevent yourself from being lynched
-Between Satoshi and Sunreeser, one of them is mafia
-You contacted your scum buddy and told them to vote someone other than the person you'd lynched so when they flipped town you could distance yourself
NOTE: This reflects poorly on Sunreeser more than Satoshi because it is less likely they are both mafia than that one of them is, and Sunreeser placed the second vote.
That's three links, which can be seen as mildly far-fetched depending on who you ask.
Your theory assumes:
-I am mafia
-Sunreeser is mafia
-Satoru is mafia
-I did not actually want you to be lynched because I could get you to be lynched on a critical day (MyLo/LyLo), and you were not killed so that could occur
-I told them to vote on someone I had a town read on in order to make me look good for 'prediction'
That's five links, the first three of which are very unlikely (how could you think you could pick out the entire scumteam from just D2, before any of them died), the last two are less clear-cut-and-dry than my hypothesis.

you surely think you are smart, making it very well possible for the last 2 to happen as you would be the strategist of the mafia. And look what happened! Sunreeser and satoru picked your side now! Though you are right about one bit, it's possible that It's only satoru or only sunreeser.

Azumi noob wrote:That's the normal thought, and himashi has been going all on about noob scumplays, no surprise for me that there's another "noob scumplay" from my part,

Actually that wasn't a noob scumplay, you'd have done good there, were the nights shorter to give people like me and Toby less time to think.

actually the thing with mafia jumping in to save a friend is the most nooby thing you can do.

Azumi noob wrote:and obviously himashi points that out again, linking me to his partners is easy enough after what happened, and of course he will go for me first so you can then see I'm a towny and then he's like "Well shit, it was a towny... sorry about that, I really did think he/she was mafia... Seeing as this person was a towny the 2 who saved him/her obviously aren't mafia, that's clear now."

Make your own Parsimony model for this one, guys, it ain't hard

Azumi noob wrote:That is my prediction, don't get blinded by himashi,

This quote would have been funnier and more accurate and just all-around-better if you'd stopped at the word 'blinded'. i meant when you look at who is scummier in this case purely, look at what happened and what is more likely to you. Then look at the whole thing again. Don't forget your earlier ideas, just think of the lynches as a different thing for a moment and then get back to the whole thing.


[img (200px,100px)]http://media.giphy.com/media/11ADmvDkfXGQOk/giphy.gif[/img]

Azumi noob wrote:think about what I said and form your own opinion about what happened. Don't let the thing with who is scummier blind you in this case, only think about what happened and think about who is scummier right now, what scenario is likelier or however you spell that. Think for yourselves.

LOL you sound like Gizelle V., "Dun let the scummy actions make you think the person doing them is scummy!!" Except in this case, you have the intelligence not to really believe that.

Azumi A. wrote:Enough ranting for now. I want all of your to say what your opinion about me is. No exceptions.

Himashi G. wrote:Let's take a look at these replies from Sunreeser and Satoru, shall we?
Subjective scrutiny, ACTIVATE

Sunreeser wrote:I am sorry if I didn't make it clear on the Misawo lynch. It was deadline right about when I came on and I had to make a quick decision so I couldn't quote what I wanted in time(What does this mean even... Elaborate pls). Anyways, I want to clarify now. At that moment, I must admit that my mindset was more of "who is least scummy" rather than "who is town"(I think you mean "who is least town" and "who is mafia"). Basically, apart from Toby, Misawo and Azumi were both unclear. I took a look at both their ISOs, and came to conclusion that Misawo was the better lynch option because her posts didn't contribute to town much, while Azumi posts are deeper and more insightful. (i cri evrytiem)

Tl;dr:

I looked at the motives. Azumi seems more of a desperate townie who really wants to play while Misawo just seems like one of those who questions others but doesn't follow up, which I think is scummy. There wasn't really a clear "cut" between the two, so I had to choose who was the better lynch option, which to me, was Misawo. (Ehhh.... I guess I can see that... But I'm not really liking it.)

This doesn't mean Azumi is town. Basically, it means those two were scummy, but if I had to choose, it would be Misawo. Sorry if this wasn't clear, but it is hard to explain my thought process that happened in a rush. I understand that I am responsible of my actions. Please feel free to question me.

The only real questions I have for this post are, what does "It was deadline right about when I came on and I had to make a quick decision so I couldn't quote what I wanted in time" mean? Don't you lose sleep over these games thinking about people?
And also, what exactly made you believe Azumi was a self-interested townie, from her defenses?

Sunreeser wrote:I don't think there is anything to argue against you, at least from my standpoint. (Is this buttering the butthead) If I was to compare you vs Azumi, your posts are way more "free" and less "forced" than Azumi who to me seems very desperate. (If her posts are forced, then what was going on in your mind when you thought she was a self-interested townie) Her latest posts, personally to me, are closer and closer to bold claims rather than evidence. (Aww, c'mon man, that happened yesterday!) I respect where you are coming from that you think it is unjustified, but it is truly what I think at the moment. It was a mislynch, mostly because it was from my feelings. I'll hold off my lynch for now, at least, until further discussions. Gonna rectify this and not let it happen again.

So six five questions for you, Sunreeser:
1) What does "It was deadline right about when I came on and I had to make a quick decision so I couldn't quote what I wanted in time" mean? Ohhhh, shoot, I just realized you said 'quote', not 'vote', nvm .-.
2) What exactly made you believe Azumi was a self-interested townie, from her defenses in D2?
I never said I believe Azumi was a self-interested townie, but I said she has the higher chance of being town out of the two because she seems like a self-interested townie (not is; sorry if it is hard to understand). She posted more details into her posts and replies to other people which I think is town-like. It kinda reminds me of Ariel in game 6 where she was pressured by a mafia (not saying you are) and she tried to defend herself similar to Azumi here.
3) Isn't a self-interested townie who cares more about their defense than about taking down the mafia a detriment to us all? Not going all marxist on you; just saying.
I could be misunderstanding here, but my perspective on this is that saving a townie (yourself) is more important than taking down a mafia. What's the point of trying to find a mafia if you know a townie (yourself) will be lynched? However, Azumi is also trying to find mafia too as she keeps bringing up the "sunreeser,toby/satoru and himashi" thing so I don't really know what you mean.
4) Since you believe her posts are forced, then what was going on in your mind when you thought she was a self-interested townie D2? Her posts were 'forced' back then too (but not as much as the ones from today, though).
Posts can be forced from both the scum side and the town side. If some keeps accusing you as town in a game where you can't prove yourself, I can see why a self-interested townie would seems more forced. I am more interested in the presentation of it tho, what she decides to bring up and if she really gives evidence to it.
5) Did you try to butter me up there? There's no really good or bad answer here, it'll just be something to keep an eye out for later if you've a tendency to follow a power source.
I didn't butter you up. I am just reading you as town at the moment, even tho you suspect me so it may seems like I am buttering.
6) What is your opinion on Satoru? You didn't talk about him at all, which is strange.
I didn't talk about Satoru because honestly, we don't have any relations together. He lynched who he think was most scummy and I respect that. My vote on Misawo wasn't pressured by anyone (deadline tho >.>), I just deemed her to be the best lynch option. I am keeping an eye on him of course, but I don't see a need to comment on Satoru regarding yesterday specifically because I have commented on hist posts yesterday.

Satoru S. wrote:The difference if you think about it between me lynching Misawo and Sunreeser doing is that I have barely catched up trying not to isolate town and had my reasons. Sure sunreeser says his/her reason but is pretty much a bandwagon. (True, it was an awfully sudden movement, which is why I was/am more suspicious of her) I was hoping for some reactions behind the lynch and not the hammer itself but deadline came. (WTH, looking for reactions two hours before deadline? You had three freaking days!) I see more of azumi being defensive but don't tell me you haven't been pressuring also and redirecting to toby. ('Redirected on Toby'? When did I even...? At least you grasp, basically, my feelings about Azumi.) Tbh I see more of a mafia than a town in azumi. Also I am for the likes of sunreeser of being neutral while active pretty much and jus sharing everything out while not pressuring. Just like fillering in a way. (But you just said she was scummier than you because of the bandwagon/second vote, and now you're saying she's neutral? Are you saying that you're more townie than neutral then? You can't just *make* those posits.)  Lastly I want to talk about kimyo. He barely got in this and all but idk but is playing in more of a neutral way. Well he got barely into the game so eh. (Why the read on Kimyo but not Toby as well?) Also another factor of the game is that the mafia kill took some time to send. This might not be straightforward information and might just be the mafia playing tricks on people but maybe everybody is town in the first place. (WTH-WTH-WTH!) Well so much to think about. Also I was hoping misawo was mafia and then telling nobody to protect themselves so I could protect myself as mafia would've gone for me but then that happened. (Wait wut) Well these are my thoughts so far.

So I have 5 questions for you, Satoru:
1) What is your opinion on Sunreeser, then? You seemed vague-y, not giving it as much attention as it merited.
2) "Looking for reactions" two hours before deadline? FREAKING REALLY? And if you *really* had such a feeling about Azumi, why didn't you act on it? That wasn't a lynchvote for you speaking your mind on who was mafia, no matter how you cut it!
3) Why a Kimyo read, but not a Toby one?
4) "Also another factor of the game is that the mafia kill took some time to send. This might not be straightforward information and might just be the mafia playing tricks on people but maybe everybody is town in the first place." Please elaborate or I'm going to explode...
5) "Also I was hoping misawo was mafia and then telling nobody to protect themselves so I could protect myself as mafia would've gone for me but then that happened." Please expound and clarify on this...

Toby J. wrote:I never found Azumi scummy until yesterday. Even then, she didn't exactly say anything scummy. So I don't think lynching Azumi TODAY is a good idea. But I always picture whatever she says from a mafia point of view though.
But if she is a townie, then its not her fault that two people saved her at the last minute and made her seem scummy.
Right now, I'm focusing more on sunreeser and Satoru. Both seemed desperate to save Azumi. Not saying Azumi isn't mafia, I just feel we should focus on those two more.

Toby J. wrote:Now that I properly read through everything, there is another thing I noticed: Azumi became extremely aggressive in defending him/herself after Himashi accused her.
Now I know Azumi is going to say "I have to defend myself yada yada yada"
but he was pretty calm and town-ish when everything was going good. But once he was accused, he didn't react in a way a normal town player would.

Sunreeser wrote:

Toby J. wrote:I never found Azumi scummy until yesterday. Even then, she didn't exactly say anything scummy. So I don't think lynching Azumi TODAY is a good idea. But I always picture whatever she says from a mafia point of view though.
But if she is a townie, then its not her fault that two people saved her at the last minute and made her seem scummy.
Right now, I'm focusing more on sunreeser and Satoru. Both seemed desperate to save Azumi. Not saying Azumi isn't mafia, I just feel we should focus on those two more.

I don't think what you said here made much sense because if Satoru or me was desperate to save Azumi because we are mafia, then Azumi should be mafia too. However, the way you said that it isn't Azumi's fault that Satoru and me lynch Azumi should mean that Satoru and I lynch Azumi because of personal reasons, not because Azumi is mafia. I definitely see where you are coming from, but this is just my personal opinion.