Game 8: Fire and Ice Mafia

Toran D. wrote:Say we don't take it and it becomes 2-4-1. That is in many ways worse than 2-3-1.

THIS^ is a big point, I don't see how 2-4-1 is worse than 2-3-1. if we would have had 2-4-1 we would have been able to win without relying in luck as much, we could have lynched any mafia and still have a chance to win, if we would have had 2-4-1 and we would kill the ice mafia we would have had a 2-4 and then they would kill 1 person and we would have 2-3, a lylo situation. now if we lynch the ice mafia we're lost. I'm thinking this is either a very bad analyse or him trying to trick us into lynching the wrong person, which to me is scummy either way. I would like to see the reasons why 2-4-1 is worse than 2-3-1 though.

btw, that quote of toran D was about lynching yesterday, and it didn't work out very well as we know.

Hanzou S. wrote:Thanks for the scumlist volt. I think we should be careful about our lynch today because one messup could cost us the game

I was going to say that foster and jimmy were scum for lynching so close to each other, but obviously this is not so.

I think the fact that sigheo got subbed after night is scummy. I will analyse his posts in a bit.

good luck with the analyzing, though I do have something to say about this. I got subbed out during the night yes, but aj just came to me and asked me if I could sub in to this game and I just can't say no to a good mafia game. I don't know why the user that was using this account earlier got subbed out but I do know that I am in this game now. I'm thinking that the user who used this account before me and his inactivity got noticed by aj and he asked the user about it and then aj decided to sub him out because he got no respone from it or the guy said he didn't feel like playing in this game anymore, although that's all speculation of course, it's still probably how it happened. I think I have now caught up to all the things about me that have been said today so I'll just wait on a response of you guys.

Jimmy Q. wrote:hi, lets try to think this out

3 mafia left, 9 alive. Its a 1/3 chance to hit a mafia. I find it weird that the mafia would kill Raiden and Silver B, instead of Saiga, Chigusa, and Hanzou.

if foster and or lilly is mafia, he could have avoided killing Saiga because that would clearly put the blame on him.  

idk im just confused on why the mafia is killing people that are considered scummy and not the people leading the village

okay I just read through what the people before me posted and couldn't resist to say something about this (the user on this account before me quoted this and said something about it). I'm thinking it's pretty Obvious why the mafia tries to take out the scummy people, they try to take out the other mafia obviously. what else would they be doing? the mafia vs mafia part is a big thing, the first time I played this gamemode, a while ago, I only remember a few things from. what I remember from it is that there was not a single mafia lynched, the mafia just killed eachother, only 1 mafia survived in the end and won, town had done nothing to kill the actual mafia because it was already done for them, except for that 1 mafia of course. And the town in that game had of course tried lynching and there were lots of suspicions and things, but when the mafia were trying to stay clean the town was just making themselves scummier and scummier. My point is that the mafia isn't necessarily scummy but seeing as they usually are the mafia try to take out the other scum by killing scummy people. very long story for such a simple thing xD

Well that's one of our townleads gone :/ Anyway, this quote on lynching Lily from Jimmy is pretty scummy:

Jimmy Q. wrote:lynch lilly G.

i have never seen a villager say its ok to lynch them unless they had some weird role.

Shittiest reason to lynch ever. In future can you actually read the entire thread and ANALYSE what people say? Personally, I would happily get lynched for town if I felt it was viable and it would help clear some stuff up. With Lily gone, I feel we don't have as much confusion with things. Jimmy to me, you're pretty obvious scum, probably Fire Mafia, as you have been sorta defensive, yet quietish. What you did yesterday was scummy as fuck, and you can't deny that. All the things you've done throughout this game are mounting up and were pretty stupid to do in the first place. Lynching you atm.

Lynching Jimmy Q.

Shigeo H. wrote:

Jimmy Q. wrote:hi, lets try to think this out

3 mafia left, 9 alive. Its a 1/3 chance to hit a mafia. I find it weird that the mafia would kill Raiden and Silver B, instead of Saiga, Chigusa, and Hanzou.

if foster and or lilly is mafia, he could have avoided killing Saiga because that would clearly put the blame on him.  

idk im just confused on why the mafia is killing people that are considered scummy and not the people leading the village

okay I just read through what the people before me posted and couldn't resist to say something about this (the user on this account before me quoted this and said something about it). I'm thinking it's pretty Obvious why the mafia tries to take out the scummy people, they try to take out the other mafia obviously. what else would they be doing? the mafia vs mafia part is a big thing, the first time I played this gamemode, a while ago, I only remember a few things from. what I remember from it is that there was not a single mafia lynched, the mafia just killed eachother, only 1 mafia survived in the end and won, town had done nothing to kill the actual mafia because it was already done for them, except for that 1 mafia of course. And the town in that game had of course tried lynching and there were lots of suspicions and things, but when the mafia were trying to stay clean the town was just making themselves scummier and scummier. My point is that the mafia isn't necessarily scummy but seeing as they usually are the mafia try to take out the other scum by killing scummy people. very long story for such a simple thing xD

Also, I remember seeing this from the previous day. Exactly what Shigeo's new sub is saying here. The mafia killing scum thing is one party trying to gain control over the town. If they get rid of the other party, they do not have to be scared about dying to the other party, and as long as they act well during the day, they can have a good shot at winning the game.

I'm on my phone at the moment, so typing's a bit awkward, but I'll give it a go. 
I fail to recall my strategy regarding the '2-4-1' <  '2-3-1', but I'm fairly sure it had something to do with X-fire, and town lynchings...
Regardless though, it was incorrect. To be fair though... Actually no, it was my bad. But I still feel that what happened would have happened anyway.

I see toran, I know it would have probably happened anyways but it's still something that bothers me about you

Don't worry, I get that a lot.

Welp, I honestly expected myself dead. I just hope town can pull it off once and for all.

I'd figure I'm the most likey villager here. Every single person who has been in serious talk of being lynched has been town and I'm no exception.

@ Chigusa, theres a difference between the hypothetical me getting lynched a few days ago to prove that Saiga and I aren't mafia partners and Lilly just going "lynch me if you want, idc you lose". I really only see the second when mafia has basically been caught and just give up.

also wheres hanzou

Sorry guys, I'm one of the v/la people.

Jimmy Q. wrote:I feel Chigus and Toran D are the fire team. Hanzou is village with me leaving either Volt K or Shilgeo has the ice mafia.

I'm getting a sub but i feel that is the likely case. I suggest talking about who everyone especially Toran D, Volt K, and Shilgeo feel are scummy. No lynch here is a good option, the mafia teams could kill off each other, leaving it 3/1. Choice is up to you guys but i feel ice mafia should probably claim so we don't lynch them and the fire mafia wont try to kill them off tomorrow night.

Jimmy, why do you think that chigusa and toran are the fire team? And what makes u think that the ice maf will claim?

Shigeo H. wrote:

Hanzou S. wrote:The only thing sigheo has really said is that lily is scummy. Not much there except inactivity. I am finding sigheo pretty scummy now.

I get the point about that but didn't you all say lily is scummy? wasn't it something everyone was saying, everyone was agreeing on? I don't think you should blame the person I subbed in for on that one. I don't know what the person I subbed in for was thinking so I can't really defend it with the thoughts of that moment so this is the best defense I have for this decision.

Sigheo does have a good point. We lynched lily mainly for activity and she turned up town, so we can't lynch anyone based on activity

Chigusa I would like to point out that foster also had a similar lily lync and turned up town.

Chigusa X. wrote:Well that's one of our townleads gone :/ Anyway, this quote on lynching Lily from Jimmy is pretty scummy:

Jimmy Q. wrote:lynch lilly G.

i have never seen a villager say its ok to lynch them unless they had some weird role.

Shittiest reason to lynch ever. In future can you actually read the entire thread and ANALYSE what people say? Personally, I would happily get lynched for town if I felt it was viable and it would help clear some stuff up. With Lily gone, I feel we don't have as much confusion with things. Jimmy to me, you're pretty obvious scum, probably Fire Mafia, as you have been sorta defensive, yet quietish. What you did yesterday was scummy as fuck, and you can't deny that. All the things you've done throughout this game are mounting up and were pretty stupid to do in the first place. Lynching you atm.

Lynching Jimmy Q.

Jimmy Q. wrote:I'd figure I'm the most likey villager here. Every single person who has been in serious talk of being lynched has been town and I'm no exception.

@ Chigusa, theres a difference between the hypothetical me getting lynched a few days ago to prove that Saiga and I aren't mafia partners and Lilly just going "lynch me if you want, idc you lose". I really only see the second when mafia has basically been caught and just give up.

also wheres hanzou

nice reason to be a likely villager, I get it, every person in serious lynching talk has been town but that doesn't mean you're town too, you could just be a mafia trying to turn a scummy situation into a good situation by making scummy good, but that doesn't work imo. in the end the mafia are most likely to be scummy.

I think we need to slow down here and really think about who is likely to be scum. Obviously we haven't been very successful so far and we need to take a different approach. We can't take activity into account anymore because it hasn't helped us lynch yet. i think we need to see what everyone's motives have been this game.

Chigusa has been pushing for a jimmy lynch all game.

Volt has been repeating what everyone else has said in a way similar to Lily.

Jimmy has been all over the place. It seems that he has been trying to scumhunt and keep town alive, but also has had a lot of RLs. I'm actually surprised at how little he has defended himself; I expected his main motive to be defense.

Toran was mostly inactive for the first few days. When she began to be more active, she began with defense and then subtly and quietly pushed a lynch on Lily. Recently she's been more defensive.

Sigheo has been defending himself half the time and trying to help the town the other half, although not as much with scumhunting as with speculation as to the mafia's intentions and playing around with X:Y:Z ratios. A notable action was his subtle push for a lynch on Lily and his vote on her.

I don't think I missed anyone there. Please, tell me your thoughts on these and ask any questions you have.

I wouldn't have said I was pushing for a Lily-lynch, but I won't really deny the rest of it. Since it's... You know... True. Whether it was purposeful on my part or not is another matter, but it is true.

Toran D. wrote:Do you mean the fact that she has:
A) Wanted us to lynch someone inactive.
B) Only lynched as a reason for someone else lynching.

She really wants someone lynched, huh.

Toran D. wrote:I would say yes, but that'd most likely be my bad scumreading again.

However, we do have a mislynch, if you're really sure about Lily. But I'm not 100% convinced yet.

Toran D. wrote:Well, he's not wrong. We do have a 1/3 chance of lynching a mafia, and if we don't lynch one then we have a higher chance tomorrow. It's a risky way to play, but it could be successful.

Toran D. wrote:Say we don't take it and it becomes 2-4-1. That is in many ways worse than 2-3-1.

Toran D. wrote:I'm not 100% sure I should lynch her yet. But honestly, it does seem like a good idea. I'll think it over quickly.

Toran D. wrote:Right, I think I am gonna lynch her. If we put more pressure on her, maybe she'll talk. And if worst comes to worst, I can always UL. Lynch Lily G.

Toran D. wrote:Given that Lily has been online since she had a couple of votes, (unless I'm messing up the times, but I'm 99% sure,) I don't think a defense is coming from her. We do still have a bit more time to give her though, so we should probably wait.

Overall, it seemed to me that Toran has been pushing for a Lily lynch. All of these posts except one pushes for a lily lynch or for a lynch in general. I was only able to find one that hesitated to lynch. Therefore, Toran was pushing for a lynch on Lily.

Honestly, I wouldn't have said these were pushing a lynch. More outlining the idea, generally agreeing with the ideas posed by those around me, answering questions, or in the case of this:

Toran D. wrote:Say we don't take it and it becomes 2-4-1. That is in many ways worse than 2-3-1.

I was getting things wrong.
I really wouldn't call it a push.

"Jimmy, why do you think that chigusa and toran are the fire team? And what makes u think that the ice maf will claim?"

chigusa posted a while ago that he thought toran was done even though toran basically never posted. it just struck me oddly. Also theres still my first thought at the start of the game of volt k x chigusa. Honestly, I haven't ruled out anyone from being fire mafia. Ice mafia probably won't claim bu it was worth a shot to make the odds of lynching fire mafia 2/5.

I agree with Hanzou, it did look like toran was pushing for a lynch on Lily, which is scummy. It definitely could have been an honest mistake but scummy nonetheless. I also got my wish on having Shiego talk, and this sub seems to be less of a lurker, fortunately. I pretty much feel the same about jimmy and Hanzou did shed some insight on the fact that he really isn't being defensive at all.

Hanzou S. wrote:I think we need to slow down here and really think about who is likely to be scum. Obviously we haven't been very successful so far and we need to take a different approach. We can't take activity into account anymore because it hasn't helped us lynch yet. i think we need to see what everyone's motives have been this game.

Chigusa has been pushing for a jimmy lynch all game.

Volt has been repeating what everyone else has said in a way similar to Lily.

Jimmy has been all over the place. It seems that he has been trying to scumhunt and keep town alive, but also has had a lot of RLs. I'm actually surprised at how little he has defended himself; I expected his main motive to be defense.

Toran was mostly inactive for the first few days. When she began to be more active, she began with defense and then subtly and quietly pushed a lynch on Lily. Recently she's been more defensive.

Sigheo has been defending himself half the time and trying to help the town the other half, although not as much with scumhunting as with speculation as to the mafia's intentions and playing around with X:Y:Z ratios. A notable action was his subtle push for a lynch on Lily and his vote on her.

I don't think I missed anyone there. Please, tell me your thoughts on these and ask any questions you have.

I can't help but agree with what you said about me, yes, I have been defending myself a lot but what else is there to do when people blame you while you just got in? you can't exactly agree on things if you don't even know what you actually did and I try my best to help town and not lurk like the people using this account before me did. tbh I'm kind of leaning towards Jimmy, though he might be the ice mafia seeing as I haven't seen him go towards teaming up with someone which might also explain why he asked for ice mafia to claim, if he is the ice mafia he would see through a fakeclaim of the fire mafia and it would make it seem like he isn't the ice mafia.

Volt K. wrote:I agree with Hanzou, it did look like toran was pushing for a lynch on Lily, which is scummy. It definitely could have been an honest mistake but scummy nonetheless.  I also got my wish on having Shiego talk, and this sub seems to be less of a lurker, fortunately. I pretty much feel the same about jimmy and Hanzou did shed some insight on the fact that he really isn't being defensive at all.

*bows* it's a pleasure to fulfil your wishes, not that I wasn't planning on talking xD

Jimmy Q. wrote:@ Chigusa, theres a difference between the hypothetical me getting lynched a few days ago to prove that Saiga and I aren't mafia partners and Lilly just going "lynch me if you want, idc you lose". I really only see the second when mafia has basically been caught and just give up.

Lily never said anything of the sort, going 'lynch me, town loses idc'. All she said was:

Lily G. wrote:Well, I really have no feasible defense to put up. If you think I'm scum, you can lynch me ^^ Right now I don't have anyone to lynch. I'm the only one acting "scummy" apparently.

Which was exactly what I was talking about, her being lynched for the benefit of town, to prevent more confusion amongst them.

Hanzou S. wrote:Chigusa I would like to point out that foster also had a similar lily lync and turned up town.

Chigusa X. wrote:Well that's one of our townleads gone :/ Anyway, this quote on lynching Lily from Jimmy is pretty scummy:

Jimmy Q. wrote:lynch lilly G.

i have never seen a villager say its ok to lynch them unless they had some weird role.

Shittiest reason to lynch ever. In future can you actually read the entire thread and ANALYSE what people say? Personally, I would happily get lynched for town if I felt it was viable and it would help clear some stuff up. With Lily gone, I feel we don't have as much confusion with things. Jimmy to me, you're pretty obvious scum, probably Fire Mafia, as you have been sorta defensive, yet quietish. What you did yesterday was scummy as fuck, and you can't deny that. All the things you've done throughout this game are mounting up and were pretty stupid to do in the first place. Lynching you atm.

Lynching Jimmy Q.

@Hanzou Of course there is that, but in a game with so few people at the moment, what are the chances that there would have been 2 dumb villagers who just lynched 2 before hammer without respecting to wait for the rest of the people who wanted to discuss more/ask Lily some more things.

Jimmy Q. wrote:"Jimmy, why do you think that chigusa and toran are the fire team? And what makes u think that the ice maf will claim?"

chigusa posted a while ago that he thought toran was done even though toran basically never posted. it just struck me oddly. Also theres still my first thought at the start of the game of volt k x chigusa. Honestly, I haven't ruled out anyone from being fire mafia. Ice mafia probably won't claim bu it was worth a shot to make the odds of lynching fire mafia 2/5.

I didn't even say Toran D. was a certain townread, all I said was I felt she was quiet before hand, and when she had picked up and began posting more, she had became more helpful person. Also, that was yesterday when Toran was very contributive. Manipulation of my words much? -.-

Today however, she has been more suspicious and is more likely scum in my eyes.

Hanzou S. wrote:Chigusa has been pushing for a jimmy lynch all game.

About this, at first I pushed for pressure, to bring up conversation between the quiet people in town, have explained this. He's slipped up way too much, and is definite scum in my eyes. Just my opinion though.

I would like to point out that I was attempting to be as objective as possible when stating motives. I am not accusing anyone based on their motives. In fact, I was hoping to get players' comments on the motives of others, not on their own.

I am starting to believe that Jimmy is scum more and more, just because of all those things he twisted around to fit him better, why would you twist words to make people look more scummy? I can only think of one reason, though is he fire or is he ice? that's why I'm hestitating on a lynch, I get the feeling he's ice just because he seems to be blaming everyone and doesn't seem to team up with anyone, we will also need to know the fire mafia though...

Votecount 4.1
*************************************
Jimmy Q.(1)- Chigusa X.
Hanzou S.(0)-
Shigeo H.(0)-
Chigusa X.(0)-
Toran D.(0)-
Volt K.(0)-
Not Voting(5)- Volt K., Hanzou S., Toran D., Shigeo H., Jimmy Q.
*************************************
There are 6 players alive so it takes 4 to hammer.
Deadline is Wednesday the 20th at 9pm EST.

The village is in potential mylo.