Game 6: Black Flag Nightless

It's okay Chaz, but remember that deadline for this first phase is in one day from now, so if it's anything involving Bailey you might want to get on that!

Actually its nothing to do with bailey, looking through the records, there isnt any decisive evidence against bailey. And trying to rule him out through logic hasbt worked.

I see Satchel as town because he hasn't said anything that seems scummy, and because he seems to be giving his honest opinion. However, he could very well be mafia, but I am not currently inclined to lynch him.

I still don't understand why we are lynching Bailey. There are people that have said less and that haven't said much more. She probably just forgot about this.

Well I am gonna go sleep now, I am probably gonna say everything I want to say tomorrow, unless something happens that makes me want to hide it

Who are you inclined to lynch then, Areal? Or are you suggesting that we do a No Lynch.

Also, the only person that is lynching Bailey is me, so there is no "we" in that. You can direct any questions about the vote on Bailey to me - which I am definitely willing to change. Contrary to what you said, nobody other than Bailey has said less. AJ has told me that Bailey goes on the PS server, which gives me hope that Bailey will actually come on if she hasn't forgotten already.

Okay Chaz, remember that the deadline is in 24.5 hours so be sure to give us your thoughts before then! : )

Hopefully Bailey will come back, but until then, I believe we have no reason to lynch her.

I am somewhat inclined to lynch Chaz, but I'll find out tomorrow what he has planned. My guess is that it's a last-minute lynch, but I don't know.

I was a little inclined to lynch Duplica due to her scummy display, but after her defense of herself I don't think she's mafia.

It would be interesting to lynch Jeanette to see who would dominate the conversation afterword, and to see if she really is a very, very good mafia, but I can't do that because I have no grounds to.

And by the way Hajime and Hiromi haven't said much more than Bailey.

I appreciate your thoughts, Areal. For me though, the other lynch that I am truly considering is one on Satchel for reasons that I have explained in earlier posts. You say that you seem him as town for "giving his honest opinion", but all he did was say everybody except Areal was town without any further thought. It seemed like trying to get his reads are to say that he has reads, rather than explaining why he believes in them. The unwillingness to expand on his views further lest he slips up leads me to see him as scummy.

Areal I. wrote:And by the way Hajime and Hiromi haven't said much more than Bailey.

This is true, they haven't said much at all, but I was just responding to you saying that players have said less than Bailey. Hajime, in particular, seemed unwilling to participate even though he was on at a time when discussion was flowing pretty well.

My opinion is that he hadn't been on in a while and he was just giving his reads, but I do think that you have a perfectly valid point.

inb4 10 pages before day 2   

Areal I. wrote:It would be interesting to lynch Jeanette to see who would dominate the conversation afterword, and to see if she really is a very, very good mafia, but I can't do that because I have no grounds to.

My guess is nobody will actually step up to "dominate" the conversation, but rather discussion would take place at a slightly slower rate than if I wasn't here. I try to stay as active as possible so that even if I am not here to analyze, there would still be enough information out there for the other townies to successfully deduce scum. That's the thing with Forum Mafia - everything from previous days will always be immortalized in these boards (as weird as that sounds), so if we get down to MYLO/LYLO town would be well advised to look through these old pages and see what scum motivations there were.

I don't think I would be a really good Mafia, because if I was, I wouldn't have anybody even suggesting my lynch like you are doing right now, Areal!

I know you aren't trying to dominate the conversation, but you probably compose over 1/2 of the total text written in this forum so far, and you are the leader of the conversation. Without you here, the conversation would be much different, and if you are mafia, then you have the entire town populace wrapped around your finger.

That's pretty hilarious actually, Areal. If you look at my stats though, I don't even comprise 4% of the total forum posts right now, so no need to fear! The conversation would be MUCH different if I wasn't here, but of course I cannot really speculate as to what specific differences would be. I don't think that people are avoiding posting because of my presence (except possibly scum not wanting to get called out), so I still think relative activity between posters would be the same.

One thing that I want to bring up is this very early post of mine:

Jeanette C. wrote:
What this says to me is that scum buddying with each other is extremely risky - because being seen as a block of two or more can easily get the entire scumteam incriminated, even if the last scum is out of the action. Normally a scumteam could have one or two members diverting attention from the last scum member who has fit in with the town better, but in this setup that strategy is not salvageable because scum loses if dropped to one member.

These are my thoughts about the setup - what are your guys' other opinions on this? I appreciate Duplica's willingness to rally us together because with enough discussion and logic, we have a good shot at deducing the scum.

Basically I explain the risk of scum being paired together - because in this setup, we only need to lynch two scum to win, so if one part of an "obvious two person scum team" is lynched then the following lynch would be game over, no matter if the third scum was doing well at hiding themselves or not.

Mason agreed with me in his following post afterwards.

I think this shows that Mason and I being a scumteam together is unlikely (though still possible). There wouldn't be a point in saying that scum wouldn't buddy up and then have Mason immediately agree with me (and continue agreeing for the most part over this day's discussion) if we were scum together. Unless you think both of us are totally reckless, but that viewpoint is up to you!

Who stirred up the discussion about Satchel and Mason?

I did - Satchel made a townread on Mason after Mason had said one sentence that to me was entirely neutral. You can check back on my posts since I've summarized it a few times already.

Ok, I was just checking

So lets review what mafia's aims are: To not stir suspicion on their teammates, to help their teammates not seem scum, to try and play as pro-town as possible without revealing themselves and finally to try and trick others into thinking the player is scum.

Do you agree guys? Or did I miss anything? It will be helpful for my plan.

That seems mostly right but I don't understand why they would trick players into thinking they are scum. I assume you mean they trick the village into thinking other town players are scum?

Yeah, thats what I meant lol. Sorry about that

It's ok. You do emphasize something that I view as especially important - not just finding individual scum, but trying to find those moments where scum subtly "improves" their partner's status to make them seem more scum. I want to do an analysis of potential partners and how people interact with each other, but it'll take a while because of all the text we have so far. I think it would be useful, though, to map out possible relationships at this point.

Jeanette, that was exactly what I was trying to do. But right now there is something interesting bad going on.

Interesting bad? What is that supposed to mean? : o

Lemme get my piece of paper where I wrote them out

First I thought of a possibility of Areal, satchel and duplica being mafia as they rang my scum bell. Areal would work with satchel, satchel would work with duplica, but duplica and areal dont realy work together as a scum pair as it contradicts one of the mafia aims.

This was just one of them, there are a few others. But you get what I mean