Game 31: Separated Scum

Ok, firstly deep apologies to being inactive for most of the game. I don't particularly disagree with lynching over me being very inactive, although I'd prefer not to get lynched.

I think that if we decide to lynch mr honcho today then most people are gonna just sheep it with a half decent reason and not much is gonna come out of it. For that reason I think the vig should be the one to kill mr honcho.

Agreed.

I can admit to being the person who asked AJ about the scumteam's wincon

To me, this almost seems like something scum would say to try to seem more townie, since town wouldn't really need to announce that they did it. Almost makes me want to go on you for being too townie.

assume that Mr. Honcho is suddenly a confirmed Innocent Child. What do you do now?

Could always just sheep your lynch, since they seem to be for pretty similar reasons.

I'll go into more posts a bit later, just going to put my readlist here for now:
Ed
He's been taking a strong "town leader" position this game, which is neither here nor there, but I know that I have bias over people like that. They've said some things that seem to be only to make them look townie, like the above quote. Neutral, leaning scum, but I'm well aware of my biases on this one.
Wilkinson
Said sweet nothings so far. Can't really read off that, if I had to say, leaning scum that's trying to fly under the proverbial radar, since he's never been in much danger of getting lynched and as such can continue his idle (or he might just be offline, idk).
Rhonda
Said before that they'd have a readlist, I don't want to go too deep without reading that first. Besides that, she's stayed mostly under the radar as well.
Maria
The shift from having me as a vig target d1 to mostly ignoring me (besides the comment on me getting shot instead of lynched) d2 is kinda suspicious, that being said she hasn't exactly shifted off, more not shifted onto. Mostly I'd want to wifom off the lynch/shot for her.
Kodama
The shift was odd, but I think that scum would know better than to do that. Overall, I'd want him to discuss the current things going on a bit more, instead of just giving his reads at the time.
Mona
They made a few good posts around d1, but them basically saying that they'll be inactive in their last two posts is odd. I understand that I'm going to look like a paranoid motherfucker, but they're kinda going under the radar now (Ed's post not withstanding). I'll go deeper once they've made their promised post.
Magnus
While the total silence recently is strange, they said a bunch of townie things d1, so I don't really SR them at the moment for the inactivity.
Roderick
Ditto what I said for Wilkinson. They came in, spewed some "reads", and left.

and yes, i do realise how fucking hypocritical it is for me to ask people to be active

Mr honcho you say that me putting barely any pressure on you day 2 is suspicious, however i dont see how that makes it scummy, why would it be beneficial for a scum to alleviate pressure on you? That being said, the only reason why i did that is coz there were 2 lynches on you already and i already made myself clear day 1 about my reasons of vig choice on you. Therefore i didnt think it was neccessary to pressure any more than you already have.

Ed, i honestly dont know in which order i would rank those 4 in, however i do know that i am probably not gonna lynch 1 or 2 of the 4 for reasons more associated with my gut. I wont say their names in case it gives them the genius(!) idea of not posting and staying under the radar. Therefore hopefully they all talk so that i have a better idea on the rankings.

I have a similar problem with your readlist to the problem I have with Rhonda’s first “readlist.” There’s a dangerous amount of neutrality on people you should easily have some sort of read on. It’s Day Two. You say you’re waiting for more things regarding Rhonda, Maria, Kodama, and Magnus, and your read on Wilkinson (and thus Roderick) is “if you had to say.”

Also, I seem to be your top scumread. If this is in fact the case then (1) why did you not vote (2) could you please cite more things you believe I said only to make myself seem townier?

My vote on Wilkinson is for pressure. I don’t have a problem with more of it being added, but deadline’s nearing and the person lynched should be a scumread. (Wilkinson is this for me, but Kodama and Magnus may think there’s a better option.) Additionally, you’ll see later in this post that I remove the vote on Wilkinson due to now disagreeing with Maria on you being Vigged instead of lynched. I still wouldn’t mind answers from Magnus and Kodama on what they’d do.

That being said, I frankly don’t like your instant agreement that you should be Vigged rather than lynched. It strikes me as defeatism, and one need only look at Day One to know how that works out. You don’t mentioned anyone who should be Vigged/lynched in your place, and I get the feeling that you’re just trying to survive to tonight (with only Compulsive Vigilante, Traitor Roleblocker, and Traitor OS Vig especially potentially having this mindset)*. As we are so close to EoD, I’d expect a claim in your most recent post if you were the Compulsive Vigilante.

Your last post has left me hesitant of what would happen if you lived to the night phase. It’s possible I’m looking into this too much, but I am currently going to Unvote Wilkinson A. and vote Mr. Honcho. I anticipate that I’ll be able to get on at some point prior to deadline to see what else has been posted. Wilkinson remains my nomination for the Vigilante shot.

*I’d expect both a Traitor Cop and Vanilla Townie, and even a Compulsive Vigilante to focus on actually getting the lynch off of them and showing why they’re town. That Mr. Honcho is only concerned with living to tonight implies to be that e has some sort of ability he wishes to make use of before he dies, and the only such roles that can definitively be said for in this setup are the Traitor Roleblocker and OS Vig.

Maria: I didn't consider this. Though it is somewhat similar to the fact that I've posted my reads already and it's not necessarily the order I'd prefer as Vigilante shots/lynches. I do think that at this point they're effectively required to post or be subbed, so it will be difficult for them to stay under the radar when virtually everyone active is waiting on them. I also disagree with you on moving the lynch off of Mr. Honcho now, for the reason mentioned above.

Ed S. wrote:
Titus (see the other game) has brought up a similar point to Magnus’s about scum not wanting to lynch scummy people. Magnus’s explaining why it applies to this setup specifically (keeping potential partners alive) is helpful in my seeing why this is scummy. I also understand Magnus’s thought that Mona may have felt that a Wilkinson lynch would gain no traction, albeit Wilkinson is still alive today. Mona,what are your thoughts on this?

First I will talk about this question directly to me, there's also been some more discussion on whether scum wants to push on lynches in general and on roderick, which I will talk about too. Considering Ed asks about scum wanting to push on lynches or not anyways, I'll immediately talk about that too. (it also sucks that both flipped town, though I had expected that from Mr cheeves, I hadn't from kazalie.)

I personally didn't lynch Wilkinson because while he is very scummy, I'm also not sure why he would act like that if he is scum. I still think he's more likely to be scum trying to wifom this, but I don't particularly trust my judgement on wifom as I tend to think about what I myself would do and don't think of what other people would do, which is why I didn't go for a lynch.

I personally think scum would try and target people that are a bit mediocre, not that scummy and not that towny either. Targetting those people doesn't look very scummy, and you can push as much as you want, though that would only apply to day 1. I suspect that by now the scum have probably found someone who is a "safe" push, as they can inspect at night. So they already know someone who is kind of scummy and also town, we can't know this for sure but it's likely. So anything about who scum might target with scummy people or not so scummy people isn't that useful anymore, it's more useful to see who's tunneling. Those who are, have probably found a save lynch. Though if someone's target doesn't end up getting lynched, they can stop tunneling. Also because we keep talking about this, they're not going to do these things anymore. We can still look back on today and see who has been tunelling lynch-wise though. I don't have the time to do that right now and I am tiring out quick (again) but it's something we can still use, as I don't believe anyone has pointed this out before me.

Now as to Roderick (as a lot of the discussion has been about him) nothing's changed about him, and he is very similar to Wilkinson in that way. He hasn't been here a lot, and when he has he's been very useless. Again, it's a very wifom situation, and I don't know whether or not he's scum. I'm not good at wifom. I'm also very tired right now, and I would try to talk about this more but I can feel that I am too tired to really get what I'm talking about anymore. Sorry about that, like I mentioned before, something came up and I am suddenly really busy.

I'm hoping to get a good night of rest tonight, as I can't make any decisions when I can barely even read the posts. Hopefully I'll be able to do something better tomorrow.

I did consider honcho being os vig at first but I feel like any sort of vig wouldnt just bring up the topic of suicidal vig as his first (and in his case before this most recent post, his only) topic of discussion. He's definitely not the CV because no one will ever bring up a topic on their own death especially at the start of day 1, and his assertion when he talked about it in his 2nd post eliminates the possibility of wifom. He could be os vig but the idea that the post would hint at his role of being either vig must have crossed his mind and would deter him from doing so. Therefore I feel like he's more likely to not be a vig at all and probably a roleblocker since ed's point about honcho eager to agree that he should be vigged instead of lynched is very noticeable and makes a lot of sense. However I am not sure why a roleblocker would be okay with dying as long as they live for one night. OS vig makes sense but roleblocker doesnt (and I am sure you can work out why without me going into more detail). Which is why I've become slightly unsure about this, however in the context of the timing of my post I dont think lynching someone else will make a difference to the activity or quality of the rest of this day and so I think it's probably safer to lynch honcho. Unfortunately I didnt have the time to write this post earlier which is probably the more optimal time for this post.

I am extremely disappointed with Mona's post. She's still going under the radar and she keeps giving excuses: "I am feeling sick and cant think", "I am not sick but i am tired", "I was busy and i am tired", "oh look i am still tired!". The only time she hasnt done this is when she talks about the mechanics of this setup. She elaborates extremely well on the mechanics and the actions of the vig and what they all mean, however she has given overall a very lackluster effort on reads and scumhunting in general. Now i really doubt that being tired or sick could affect your ability to think in such a dramatic way and so i feel like you are just giving excuses to cover up why you arent really making any sort of effort to scumhunt. Also in your most recent post, you declared what you were going to talk about which was fine, but then when we it gets to the part about roderick, you literally say absolutely nothing new and then go back to pinning it on how tired you are. There is also a reason why no one pointed out the fact that its useful to see who's tunneling on who, it's because day 2 was stale and barely had any sort of tunneling! I don't see how you couldnt have noticed that seeing as how short day 2 was and its fairly clear that you did read back before writing this post. You effectively just nullified this option of finding scum.

Having said that this is all just assuming that she's lying about how ridiculously severe her tiredness or sickness is. I cant remove the possibility that she isn't faking/exaggerating to make an excuse for not making an effort. However this doesnt mean that giving excuses will reduce the severity of the accusation and I want to see a lot more effort coming from Mona if we ever get past night 2. Also lynching her wont do anything since she's made it clear that she isnt going to come back on. Rhonda on the other hand said that she was coming back from vacation yesterday and will post a full readlist then, however evidently this hasnt happened yet. In addition to her acting as a "town mediator" and not pushing anyone, she just clarifies what people mean. Therefore if there was any sort of pressure point that could have been exploited in the scumhunting process, Rhonda would have simply nullified the effect since the player can just regurgitate or use the clarification as a way to defend themselves. If the player really is town, they should be able to defend themselves in a convincing fashion without the assistance of a clarifying town mediator. Therefore it makes sense that Rhonda is doing this from a scum perspective and is likely to be the scum from the 4 players I shortlisted. Magnus disappeared but I am giving him the merit that he has brought up several good points, Kodama is one I am really unsure about but I think Rhonda is more likely to be scum than kodama. Therefore my choice of vig shot is going to be on Rhonda however a Mona shot also makes sense to me.

Lynch Mr Honcho

I'll go into what's been said a little later, I just request for me to not be at L-1, since it opens opportunities for me to get hammered by someone sheeping the earlier reasons.

Never mind, it's basically DL unless I fucked up my timezones, I agree mostly with Maria's post on Mona.

There’s a dangerous amount of neutrality on people you should easily have some sort of read on.

Because I'm not confident enough on my reads to push them yet. I haven't lynched you because I'm not confident + I suspect it's just from my bias from TT.
My proposed vig is Mona, although i think there's a case for Ed somewhere.

Votecount 2.4
******************************
Mr. Honcho(4)- Kodama N., Magnus D., Ed S., Maria S.
Wilkinson A.(1)-
Rhonda R.(0)-
Maria S.(0)-
Kodama N.(0)-
Mona L.(0)-
Magnus D.(0)-
Ed S.(0)-
Roderick S.(0)-
Not Voting(5)- Mr. Honcho, Mona L., Rhonda R., Roderick S., Wilkinson A.
******************************
There are 9 alive so it takes 5 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Tuesday the 4th at 9pm EST.

Mr. Honcho was lynched.

he was the...:

Night 2 Commence! Deadline is the 6th at 9pm EST.

Wilkinson A. and Roderick S. have been subbed out. New users are now using their accounts.

the death last night was of...:

Day 3 Commence!

Votecount 3.0
******************************
Wilkinson A.(0)-
Rhonda R.(0)-
Maria S.(0)-
Kodama N.(0)-
Mona L.(0)-
Ed S.(0)-
Roderick S.(0)-
Not Voting(7)- Mona L., Rhonda R., Roderick S., Wilkinson A., Kodama N., Ed S., Maria S.
******************************
There are 7 alive so it takes 4 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Monday the 10th at 9pm EST.

PLyLo, MyLo, or whatever this is scares me. Frankly, this game scares me. Below are my responses to the last few posts from Day Two. I responded to Mona's before reading Maria's, so there may be some repetition.

Mona

"I personally didn't lynch Wilkinson because while he is very scummy, I'm also not sure why he would act like that if he is scum. I still think he's more likely to be scum trying to wifom this, but I don't particularly trust my judgement on wifom as I tend to think about what I myself would do and don't think of what other people would do, which is why I didn't go for a lynch." But you still advocated for the Vigilante to shoot him. This is essentially the same sentiment.

"I personally think scum would try and target people that are a bit mediocre, not that scummy and not that towny either. Targetting those people doesn't look very scummy, and you can push as much as you want, though that would only apply to day 1. I suspect that by now the scum have probably found someone who is a "safe" push, as they can inspect at night. So they already know someone who is kind of scummy and also town, we can't know this for sure but it's likely. So anything about who scum might target with scummy people or not so scummy people isn't that useful anymore, it's more useful to see who's tunneling. Those who are, have probably found a save lynch. Though if someone's target doesn't end up getting lynched, they can stop tunneling. Also because we keep talking about this, they're not going to do these things anymore. We can still look back on today and see who has been tunelling lynch-wise though. I don't have the time to do that right now and I am tiring out quick (again) but it's something we can still use, as I don't believe anyone has pointed this out before me.” No one pointed it out before you because mentioning it wipes it out of relevancy. What I’m going to bring up is that this whole paragraph looks like it’s working towards some grand conclusion. “Scum will likely be tunneling…much like this person is!” You also say, “But we can still look back at this day.” This day. Which has been horribly inactive and has had much of its content centered around a neutral read. It's a very long paragraph that doesn't accomplish much but eliminate a scumhunting method we could have used.

"Now as to Roderick (as a lot of the discussion has been about him) nothing's changed about him, and he is very similar to Wilkinson in that way. He hasn't been here a lot, and when he has he's been very useless. Again, it's a very wifom situation, and I don't know whether or not he's scum. I'm not good at wifom. I'm also very tired right now, and I would try to talk about this more but I can feel that I am too tired to really get what I'm talking about anymore. Sorry about that, like I mentioned before, something came up and I am suddenly really busy.” TL;DR: "I’m neutral on Roderick because he hasn’t posted anything else. Now I suddenly feel tired. Oh, and I’m also busy." For someone who has been so busy/tired, you have a lot of time to write these paragraphs despite their lack of content.


Maria

"I did consider honcho being os vig at first but I feel like any sort of vig wouldnt just bring up the topic of suicidal vig as his first (and in his case before this most recent post, his only) topic of discussion.” Why not? If they can get support for a plan that kills the only town PR, it’s worth the shot (pun not intended).

Surprisingly little else I want to respond to, although part of my above comment to Mona is the same sentiment as what you mentioned regarding her in your other two paragraphs.

Rhonda didn’t come online at all pre-deadline after promising another post, so I don’t know if she was able to get to a computer or not. That being said, I find her scummy based on what she has (not) done so far, and I scumread Mona for similar reasons. Day Two has, if anything, strengthened my townread on Maria based on her behavior during our discussion about Roderick. Though it was based on a misinterpretation, I find the paranoia involved in the "Ed/Magnus could have inspected Roderick" to be coming from a town mindset, but Maria also didn't instantly decide, "Look at this! Here's a reason to lynch, everyone turbo!" I want to look at Kodama's posts once more and see if I can tell what "sense of genuinity" Maria is referring to (and also read over Mona/Rhonda's posts so far), but my current order from town>scum is Maria>Roderick>Wilkinson>Mona>Kodama>Rhonda, where Roderick and Wilkinson are mostly neutral due to a lack of content prior to now and their currently having subs.

As far the Vigilante claiming goes, by the way: I don't think they should claim unless they are about to be lynched or they are counterclaiming someone else. The reason being that if we lynch scum today but the Vigilante has claimed, we are likely to go into another LyLo.

Also, if we make it to night 3, the Vigilante should start considering following their own opinions. Granted, the Magnus shot indicates they seem to be doing so already. But right now the scum controls 3/7=~43% of the vote, which is in my opinion too much sway.

Ok, I seriously overestimated how much free time I'd have on the 4th of July. I had planned on sitting down and putting together a solid readlist and then my family decided to throw a huge barbecue and I had to help out for most of the day. I sincerely apologize for that, but it doesn't seem like my reads would have swayed the vote much since the target remained the same all day and activity fell off a cliff all around.

I'd like to know why Magnus was killed last night, as I don't remember him ever being discussed as a vig target. However, it may be possible that the town vig was roleblocked and the mafia OS vig's kill went through.

At this point, mafia is in an extremely advantageous position. We need more than 3-4 people actively discussing the game at a time, myself included. The two people who just subbed in need to read through the game ASAP and post their thoughts/reads so that we have the best possible chance of lynching a mafia member today. We need as much information as possible in order to make a smart lynch decision today.

I'll put together a full readlist either today or tomorrow at the latest, and I expect the same from Mona, Kodama, Roderick, and Wilkinson.

I find this nightkill to be very strange partly coz it makes more sense for the kill to come from the OS vig. Magnus has been one of the more townie ones due to him bringing up good points despite his disappearance on day 2 so it doesnt make sense for the CV to kill him and there are clearly many more options which are much better and much more likely to be scum. Seeing how scum had a good chance of winning night 2 and that honcho flipped town, it's a large incentive for os vig to make the kill. It could perhaps be that the CV was roleblocked or just didnt choose to make a kill because they realised scum can win if they shoot a townie. The only argumeny against this is why did OS vig shoot magnus and not ed or myself? One reason could be that the os vig predicted magnus to be CV because of the kazalie kill or any other reason. Although i think that it was the os vig that shot, the CV knows who shot magnus. Therefore whoever is the CV, if you didnt shoot magnus, you MUST claim.

It's strange why ed decided to keep the points that have basically repeated what i said after he realised that they were repeated. It's easier to just use the backspace key instead of clarifying that you read mona's post. It just feels like you want to show all of us that you also coincidentally thought of those points, which could well be true, but it seems as if he subtly but deliberately highlighted it. Now i cant really think of a good reason why he would do that but anything that feels unnatural strikes an alarm. Also the vig should never counter claim, they have the power to just shoot the fake claimer. I dont see how you didnt realise this and it was even brought up in the other game which you have clearly shown that you have been following.

Also replying to ed's question (despite not being important anymore since honcho somehow flipped town) i dont think os vig would risk hinting their own role for a strategy that has an iffy chance of working. However it might just be a playstyle thing, perhaps he was fine with taking the risks. It doesnt matter now though since it clear that honcho isnt the os vig.

Rhonda has promised to post a readlist so i'll wait for that therefore from my post in day 2 i will...
Lynch Mona

Maria S. wrote:...

I am extremely disappointed with Mona's post. She's still going under the radar and she keeps giving excuses: "I am feeling sick and cant think", "I am not sick but i am tired", "I was busy and i am tired", "oh look i am still tired!". The only time she hasnt done this is when she talks about the mechanics of this setup. She elaborates extremely well on the mechanics and the actions of the vig and what they all mean, however she has given overall a very lackluster effort on reads and scumhunting in general. Now i really doubt that being tired or sick could affect your ability to think in such a dramatic way and so i feel like you are just giving excuses to cover up why you arent really making any sort of effort to scumhunt. Also in your most recent post, you declared what you were going to talk about which was fine, but then when we it gets to the part about roderick, you literally say absolutely nothing new and then go back to pinning it on how tired you are. There is also a reason why no one pointed out the fact that its useful to see who's tunneling on who, it's because day 2 was stale and barely had any sort of tunneling! I don't see how you couldnt have noticed that seeing as how short day 2 was and its fairly clear that you did read back before writing this post. You effectively just nullified this option of finding scum.

Having said that this is all just assuming that she's lying about how ridiculously severe her tiredness or sickness is. I cant remove the possibility that she isn't faking/exaggerating to make an excuse for not making an effort. However this doesnt mean that giving excuses will reduce the severity of the accusation and I want to see a lot more effort coming from Mona if we ever get past night 2. Also lynching her wont do anything since she's made it clear that she isnt going to come back on.

...

Okay perhaps I should explain my tiredness a bit better, as you seem to have a problem with it. During this game, something came up which started taking a lot of time and causing a lot of mental exhaustion. I'm still dealing with it, and it is not something I can simply postpone. Now I'm not sure if you've ever been exhausted, but I can tell you that some things are more tiring than others. Reads require reading through posts and paying close attention to everything. It's very tiring. Understanding the implications of a setup is not as tiring, meaning I can do so even when tired and get pretty far. Actually going back and doing something with it? Too much. When I started talking about Roderick it was about reads, as I said earlier, those are exhausting. That's why I could still talk about the setup, but didn't get very far with Roderick. That day I simply took on too much at once and burned through almost all of my energy before getting to this game.

Now considering my post from earlier, I didn't realize we were so close to deadline so I thought I could come online again to make another post talking about the tunneling problem. And I do believe I mentioned in my post that it doesn't matter after day 2 anymore anyways, because if the scum's target was not killed, they now (possibly) have two safe targets. So I did not ruin the strategy, I am aware scum can adapt to it now. But they wouldn't be using this strategy anymore anyways. Perhaps it would have been better to wait until the end of day 2 though.

And you mention how I keep making up excuses, well I can tell you that it's not exactly fun to be exhausted so you can accept it or you can not. I don't really care, just don't lynch me for something I have no control over, get some good reasons. I do not lie about IRL circumstances.

Ed S. wrote:PLyLo, MyLo, or whatever this is scares me. Frankly, this game scares me. Below are my responses to the last few posts from Day Two. I responded to Mona's before reading Maria's, so there may be some repetition.

Mona

"I personally didn't lynch Wilkinson because while he is very scummy, I'm also not sure why he would act like that if he is scum. I still think he's more likely to be scum trying to wifom this, but I don't particularly trust my judgement on wifom as I tend to think about what I myself would do and don't think of what other people would do, which is why I didn't go for a lynch." But you still advocated for the Vigilante to shoot him. This is essentially the same sentiment.

"I personally think scum would try and target people that are a bit mediocre, not that scummy and not that towny either. Targetting those people doesn't look very scummy, and you can push as much as you want, though that would only apply to day 1. I suspect that by now the scum have probably found someone who is a "safe" push, as they can inspect at night. So they already know someone who is kind of scummy and also town, we can't know this for sure but it's likely. So anything about who scum might target with scummy people or not so scummy people isn't that useful anymore, it's more useful to see who's tunneling. Those who are, have probably found a save lynch. Though if someone's target doesn't end up getting lynched, they can stop tunneling. Also because we keep talking about this, they're not going to do these things anymore. We can still look back on today and see who has been tunelling lynch-wise though. I don't have the time to do that right now and I am tiring out quick (again) but it's something we can still use, as I don't believe anyone has pointed this out before me.” No one pointed it out before you because mentioning it wipes it out of relevancy. What I’m going to bring up is that this whole paragraph looks like it’s working towards some grand conclusion. “Scum will likely be tunneling…much like this person is!” You also say, “But we can still look back at this day.” This day. Which has been horribly inactive and has had much of its content centered around a neutral read. It's a very long paragraph that doesn't accomplish much but eliminate a scumhunting method we could have used.

"Now as to Roderick (as a lot of the discussion has been about him) nothing's changed about him, and he is very similar to Wilkinson in that way. He hasn't been here a lot, and when he has he's been very useless. Again, it's a very wifom situation, and I don't know whether or not he's scum. I'm not good at wifom. I'm also very tired right now, and I would try to talk about this more but I can feel that I am too tired to really get what I'm talking about anymore. Sorry about that, like I mentioned before, something came up and I am suddenly really busy.” TL;DR: "I’m neutral on Roderick because he hasn’t posted anything else. Now I suddenly feel tired. Oh, and I’m also busy." For someone who has been so busy/tired, you have a lot of time to write these paragraphs despite their lack of content.


...

You say that advocating for a vigilante shot is the same sentiment, but while that's true, it's a very different action from lynching someone. Lynching someone means "This is the person I want dead and I am going to work towards making that happen" while suggesting them as a vig shot means "I'd suggest this person, though there are still other options. Good luck" At least that's what it means to me. Which is why I'd sooner suggest a vig shot than actually lynch someone.

I explained above why my mentioning it is not as bad as you make it out to be. I could have waited a bit longer, but it wasn't exactly a terrible thing to do. I was going to look back and see who had been tunneling, but I realized that if I would do that I wouldn't have enough energy left to even begin talking about roderick. And yes you are somewhat correct in your summary on what I said about Roderick. Though I do need to point out that long paragraphs are actually a lot easier to write and a lot faster to write than small ones with concise thoughts in them. There's a reason tests have a maximum ammount of words on certain questions rather than a minimum. And I'm not talking about writing excercices. I also explained a bit more on the deal with me being tired if you feel the need to mock how inconsistent it some more. At least be informed.

Maria S. wrote:I find this nightkill to be very strange partly coz it makes more sense for the kill to come from the OS vig. Magnus has been one of the more townie ones due to him bringing up good points despite his disappearance on day 2 so it doesnt make sense for the CV to kill him and there are clearly many more options which are much better and much more likely to be scum. Seeing how scum had a good chance of winning night 2 and that honcho flipped town, it's a large incentive for os vig to make the kill. It could perhaps be that the CV was roleblocked or just didnt choose to make a kill because they realised scum can win if they shoot a townie. The only argumeny against this is why did OS vig shoot magnus and not ed or myself? One reason could be that the os vig predicted magnus to be CV  because of the kazalie kill or any other reason. Although i think that it was the os vig that shot, the CV knows who shot magnus. Therefore whoever is the CV, if you didnt shoot magnus, you MUST claim.


...

Okay so I find this a very strange nightkill too. I don't remember anyone talking about a Magnus kill. There are two options here, either the vig chose to kill magnus or the traitor vig chose to kill magnus while the vig was coincidentally roleblocked. Of course they could have also both chosen to kill magnus, thus leading to only 1 kill. Looking at the odds, the first option would be more likely, but that doesn't say everything, not when it's about the choices people make. The traitor vig had every reason to try a kill as two deaths (with all traitors surviving) would have meant a win for scum. Still it wouldn't be that odd for the vig to choose someone who wasn't discussed, as I don't recall a lot of people making their opinion on the kill clear yesterday. Also the traitor to town ratio was already getting quite bad.

Something I want to point out about your reasoning however is that you say the CV possibly chose not to kill. Considering you use CV, I'd assume you're aware of the fact that it's a compulsive vigilante. So they can't choose whether or not to kill. They only get to choose who. So your point about how the vig might have chosen not to kill because of the risk doesn't really make sense.

Now you might have noticed I've been a bit annoyed throughout this post, which is not because of the lynch on me and the earlier suggestion for me to get shot. It's because you don't even have a good reason. Do not use my tiredness as a reason to lynch me. It's not something I had control over, if you still want to lynch me for other reasons, feel free to do so. Just please explain it seperately from your entire thing on how disappointed you are with how tired I was or whatever.

I should be able to manage everything a bit better now, so for now I will read through some of the things that happened, and I will make another readlist tomorrow, which I will update when the subbed players have had a chance to say some things. I might make another post today about whether I found anyone particularly fixated on someone yesterday, but I'm not sure if I'll be able to do so as I might simply run out of time.

Maria: The CV is well, compulsive, so them choosing to not kill isn’t a possibility. Them being blocked is however, and I didn’t consider that possibility. (So is them placing more weight on Magnus’s lack of commenting.) If them being blocked is the case, they should also claim. I am well aware of the Vigilante’s ability to shoot a fake claimer, but in this scenario that would require us to continue through the rest of the day treating the fake claimer as a clear for that day at least, which I don’t think is a good idea.

I kept what I said to Mona because not all of it is the same as what you said. In particular, I wanted to point out the discrepancy with her comment on Wilkinson and go more in depth with the fact that her “But we can still look back at this day” does absolutely nothing to counter the fact that she spends a lot of time typing up her wifom. (Time that could have been spent with reads on people or virtually anything else.) Were Mona town, it would make more sense for her to spend what time she had giving her thoughts on the gamestate or players.

I think that since the OS Vig is still alive, the point regarding that remains relevant.

While it’s unlikely that scum knows all of their partners, I still don’t think we should lynch quickly today. It gives scum a significant advantage unless none of the scum knows any of their partners (unlikely to be the case currently).

Rhonda’s new post is more of the same. It states the obvious (that mafia is in an advantageous position) and people need post their thoughts) and once again promises a readlist.

Having read through Kodama’s posts, I don’t see what stands out as “genuine” to the point of being townish. I do, however, appreciate that he is one of the few people living who has been making an effort to gamesolve and explain his actions. This prompts me to place him above Mona when combined with the fact that Mona’s been online to see all of this yet didn’t comment on it.

(As I went to post this, Mona’s post appeared. Response below.)

MonaIf we take the difference you mention between lynching/voting for a Vig shot to be valid, we run into another problem-you’ve not lynched anyone all game. This would indicate a recurring theme of “I suggest this person, but there are other options. Good luck!” on your part, which is passive at best and noncommittal at worst.

I don’t get what you mean at all when you say that long paragraphs are easier/faster to write than shorter ones. The test analogy doesn’t help, possibly because I didn’t know this but also because it doesn’t seem relevant. A test question is designed to, well, ask a question. Not get information across.

Currently, I am keeping Kodama above Mona. Mona’s new post, while explaining a great deal, is primarily defensive. That’s not a problem in itself, but at the end Mona also promises a readlist, which will be helpful.

Alright going through the actions, Kodama lynched Honcho and nominated rodrick and wilkinson as vig shots. It's not really tunneling, but he didn't change anything through the day. What is definitely odd is how his read on honcho shifted from "leaning town" to "scum" in the span of one IRL day. Though this happened on day 1. As far as his reads on Wilkinson and Rodrick go Wilkinsom simply became more extreme and with Rodrick there was a neutral start.

Maria has also been on Honcho, but started with that on day 1, so this isn't a change, she has simply always seen him as scummy from what I gather. The only odd thing is the shift from saying vig should be on honcho and people probably sheeping the lynch on him with half reasons, to lynching honcho. But this is not something to do with tunneling.

Ed has also been on honcho but has been consistent with it throughout the game too.

These are the three people who had any solid reads at all (out of those still alive.)

There isn't any tunneling there, meaning that whoever scum might be, they already realized they shouldn't tunnel before I talked about it. It is still possible that any out of these three are scum who found honcho as town, but if so, it did not change their behaviour noticably.

I do want to say that Komada started out by saying Honcho bringing up discussion about the vig was a good thing, but when people started talking about how scummy Honcho was he seemed to change his opinion quite quickly. It's as if he was trying to blend in by changing his opinion on Honcho. This could have definitely led him to an inspect (if he's scum) and then to a lynch on a town member.

So my conclusion from seeing what I could do with the tunneling, is that Kodama might not have obviously tunneled, but his behaviour regarding Honcho was still rather suspicious.

Ed S. wrote:...

(As I went to post this, Mona’s post appeared. Response below.)

MonaIf we take the difference you mention between lynching/voting for a Vig shot to be valid, we run into another problem-you’ve not lynched anyone all game. This would indicate a recurring theme of “I suggest this person, but there are other options. Good luck!” on your part, which is passive at best and noncommittal at worst.

I don’t get what you mean at all when you say that long paragraphs are easier/faster to write than shorter ones. The test analogy doesn’t help, possibly because I didn’t know this but also because it doesn’t seem relevant. A test question is designed to, well, ask a question. Not get information across.

Currently, I am keeping Kodama above Mona. Mona’s new post, while explaining a great deal, is primarily defensive. That’s not a problem in itself, but at the end Mona also promises a readlist, which will be helpful.

You are right, I am passive and nocommittal. It is something I should definitely work on, but I am also aware that I am not the best at wifom, and it's even harder to commit to something when you are as uncertain about something as I am about wifom.

The test analogy is because in my country when we get tests on our own language we often have to explain something from the text in our own words, in under an x ammount of words. This is because it's easy enough to say it all and get your point across with a lot of words, but doing it with few is a lot harder and requires a much better grasp of the language and topic. So your answer should get information across, but with the added difficulty of fewer words.

And you are right again with saying I'm mostly being defensive, above I've mentioned something I noticed when looking for tunneling, and a reads list will come tomorrow, but I don't want to strain myself any further today as I can feel a headache coming up, and tomorrow I'll have more time than I do now anyways.

Lets put tiredness aside because it's not something that can be proven or disproven, you said that the strategy that wouldnt be useful after day 1 is the "push for a mediocre not so towny but no so scummy lynch" since you correctly said that scum would have already inspected and most likely found a safe push during night 1. However you said that it's more useful to see who's tunneling for day 2 and having 2 safe targets doesn't mean they'll stop tunneling, but perhaps the tunnel will be slightly broader since they'll still want either one or the other lynched. Perhaps in day 4 this strat would be irrelevant. However it's day 3 and it's still a relevant way of finding scum before you said it.

Yeah I may have gone slightly auto-pilot and forgot that CV stands for compulsive vig. However if we take out those few words about choosing not to kill, my point is still valid. Ed, you say that you will continue through the rest of the day treating a fake claimer as a confo town. But if they counter claim, don't you think its worse that roleblocker will block and os-vig will shoot him? (Assuming it was indeed the CV that killed magnus) Which basically means that we have to lynch him the next day which could have been done overnight without losing our own vig. Now if we consider that the CV and os-vig both went for magnus (unlikely but lets entertain the thought), a CV counterclaiming will put us in a 50/50 which perhaps could be better than a 43/57 (scum/town) in this case but i dont see why you cant just focus on who the other scum could be and leave the fake claim to the real vig. That way it means we have more breathing space. If the CV has been blocked and the OS-vig has used their shot then you're right the CV should claim.

Although the os-vig is still alive, no one else has brought up any sort of strat involving the os-vig except for the "if they used their shot CV should claim". So i dont see how it's still relevant.

I lynched because I wanted to impose pressure early and on someone who is likely to talk, unlike in day 2 where the lynches served practically no purpose in terms of pressure.

Now for Kodama I guess the "sense of genuinity" is more gut based but here's something I didnt notice before, when ed talked about Kodama's sudden changes in reads I didn't find it scummy because to me it showed that reading the thread more thoroughly can make all the difference. However Kodama stated that he didnt read wall posts, yet Mr Honcho never wrote a single wall post in day 1 and Mona's reasoning makes a lot of sense that it looks like he is trying to blend in with the major opinion while (going back to my old point in day 1) is masking it with the "attempt" of finding his own reasons in which I have explained previously in day 1 that the reasoning has come from a misinterpretation yet Kodama seemed to have simply ignored it.

Mona you say you agree that you're passive and non-committal, surely they are also reasons for lynching you? I mean wifom is always something that requires judgement of possibilities and you should always ask yourself, which is more likely to be the correct possibility. Despite you saying that you are tired and all that, I have seen parts of your posts where you include possible cases then say which you think is the more likely case, therefore you are clearly capable of dealing with wifom.

Err it should say "Ed, you say you dont want to continue the day treating a fake claimer as a confo town". Also in the first paragraph, I think it would have been better to include some more punctuation to make it easier to understand.

Maria: The main problem I have with a fakeclaim being uncc'ed is that there are a lot of people who will, regardless if they admit it or not, “follow the ‘clear’” on some level for the day. If said “clear” is, in fact, scum who has through inspection found an easy push, it’s effectively game over. Additionally, if scum claims CV and has no cc we only have a 2/6=33% of lynching correctly.

Re: Kodama, I decided to also compare his readlists during D1 and that start of D2. The only thing that stood out to me was that Mr. Honcho is not the only player without wallposts he changes his mind on. He claims he’s leaning scum on Roderick because Roderick came on and didn’t post anything, and during D2 this is apparently grounds for Roderick to be shot by the Vigilante. This contrasts with how he "didn’t want Rhonda to die” during D1 even though Rhonda was in essentially the same situation at that point that Roderick was D2. He also maintains his reasoning for scumreading Mr. Honcho (Mr. Honcho’s comment on RVS) and looking through his ISO I don’t see him acknowledge anyone who has mentioned interpreting it differently. (Basically indicative of dodging the question.) His reasoning for these two shifts is weak. I guess the point I’m trying to get across is that I didn’t notice what Maria/Mona brought up, but when they did bring it up I went to see for myself and noticed that this was not only the case with Mr. Honcho. (I’d also like to continue the discussion from the start of D2, Kodama.)

Mona: See above for my thoughts on Kodama’s read on Roderick. Maria has asked the question I was going to ask you regarding your comment of, "Yes, I am passive and noncommittal."

As a sidenote, I’m getting the feeling that at least one of Mona or Rhonda has someone they want to defend but nothing with which to defend them, hence their procrastination on making their readlists. The same could be said for Wilkinson and Roderick, but at this point I’d appreciate something from one of these two just indicating they are aware of the game and what has happened. The next time these four are online I anticipate reads from them, otherwise I have few problems with them being lynched.

hey guys i just subbed in and wonder if anyone can help sum up everything thats happening so far, catching up is a pain

Honestly, Day One had so much happen that I encourage you to read through it if you can find the time (it's from page 1 to about halfway through page 5).

Day Two is easily summed up: much of the discussion is between myself and Maria regarding a misunderstanding about my neutral real on Roderick #1, though in my opinion it can still be helpful to others forming opinions about myself and Maria. We also questioned Kodama about a significant shift in reads during Day One, but the conversation is currently unfinished.

Following up with what I said I'd do earlier, I am going to vote Rhonda R., who was last online "today at 5:48 AM."

ok i read mostly everything from day 1 and 2, thought it was alot, im sure 1 mafia prob founded one of there unknown partners so i would be aware of that to see if there any change of reads or interaction during the past day as said it mylo/plyo

I'm just going to respond to what has happened since my last post first, then I'll go make my readslist.

Maria S. wrote:Lets put tiredness aside because it's not something that can be proven or disproven, you said that the strategy that wouldnt be useful after day 1 is the "push for a mediocre not so towny but no so scummy lynch" since you correctly said that scum would have already inspected and most likely found a safe push during night 1. However you said that it's more useful to see who's tunneling for day 2 and having 2 safe targets doesn't mean they'll stop tunneling, but perhaps the tunnel will be slightly broader since they'll still want either one or the other lynched. Perhaps in day 4 this strat would be irrelevant. However it's day 3 and it's still a relevant way of finding scum before you said it.

Yeah I may have gone slightly auto-pilot and forgot that CV stands for compulsive vig. However if we take out those few words about choosing not to kill, my point is still valid. Ed, you say that you will continue through the rest of the day treating a fake claimer as a confo town. But if they counter claim, don't you think its worse that roleblocker will block and os-vig will shoot him? (Assuming it was indeed the CV that killed magnus) Which basically means that we have to lynch him the next day which could have been done overnight without losing our own vig. Now if we consider that the CV and os-vig both went for magnus (unlikely but lets entertain the thought), a CV counterclaiming will put us in a 50/50 which perhaps could be better than a 43/57 (scum/town) in this case but i dont see why you cant just focus on who the other scum could be and leave the fake claim to the real vig. That way it means we have more breathing space. If the CV has been blocked and the OS-vig has used their shot then you're right the CV should claim.

Although the os-vig is still alive, no one else has brought up any sort of strat involving the os-vig except for the "if they used their shot CV should claim". So i dont see how it's still relevant.

I lynched because I wanted to impose pressure early and on someone who is likely to talk, unlike in day 2 where the lynches served practically no purpose in terms of pressure.

Now for Kodama I guess the "sense of genuinity" is more gut based but here's something I didnt notice before, when ed talked about Kodama's sudden changes in reads I didn't find it scummy because to me it showed that reading the thread more thoroughly can make all the difference. However Kodama stated that he didnt read wall posts, yet Mr Honcho never wrote a single wall post in day 1 and Mona's reasoning makes a lot of sense that it looks like he is trying to blend in with the major opinion while (going back to my old point in day 1) is masking it with the "attempt" of finding his own reasons in which I have explained previously in day 1 that the reasoning has come from a misinterpretation yet Kodama seemed to have simply ignored it.

Mona you say you agree that you're passive and non-committal, surely they are also reasons for lynching you? I mean wifom is always something that requires judgement of possibilities and you should always ask yourself, which is more likely to be the correct possibility. Despite you saying that you are tired and all that, I have seen parts of your posts where you include possible cases then say which you think is the more likely case, therefore you are clearly capable of dealing with wifom.

I suppose you're right that people might still have tunneled today, but a bit broader. It would be very difficult to find someone tunneling on two people, but it would have been an option for scumhunting. I didn't think of that when I made the post, so I apologize for that.

As far as vig discussion goes, I suppose it's easy to go on autopilot. The vig hasn't claimed so far, so I think it's safe to assume that the vig did in fact attack magnus, as they would be able to claim safely if it was the scum vig who did that kill. Though the vig might not want to deal with possible cc's, that could be solved easily and safely for the vig.

Thank you for explaining your lynch, though I would have answered regardless, and suggesting that the vig should kill me is kind of extreme if you want an explanation, if the vig had listened you wouldn't have gotten one.

You are right, those are reasons to lynch me. They're not the strongest reasons, and me being passive and non-committal is kind of part of my playstyle and personality, so it would suck. They are reasons though. And yes I am able to make a decision with wifom, but I don't particularly trust myself to get it right, and I've often found that by the time I finished the posts I would be reconsidering my decision because I am probably looking at it too much from my own perspective.

Ed S. wrote:Maria: The main problem I have with a fakeclaim being uncc'ed is that there are a lot of people who will, regardless if they admit it or not, “follow the ‘clear’” on some level for the day. If said “clear” is, in fact, scum who has through inspection found an easy push, it’s effectively game over. Additionally, if scum claims CV and has no cc we only have a 2/6=33% of lynching correctly.

...

Mona: See above for my thoughts on Kodama’s read on Roderick. Maria has asked the question I was going to ask you regarding your comment of, "Yes, I am passive and noncommittal."

As a sidenote, I’m getting the feeling that at least one of Mona or Rhonda has someone they want to defend but nothing with which to defend them, hence their procrastination on making their readlists. The same could be said for Wilkinson and Roderick, but at this point I’d appreciate something from one of these two just indicating they are aware of the game and what has happened. The next time these four are online I anticipate reads from them, otherwise I have few problems with them being lynched.

I get what you mean about people following the "clear" but everyone should understand at this point that an uncc'd claim does not clear anyone.

The question is answered above.

Honestly at this point I pointed out something scummy about Kodama, so if I had wanted to defend him I would have simply not done that. Then I wouldn't have to make anything up to defend Maria or Ed. With wilkinson and Roderick it'd be easier for me to make the readlist earlier so I can talk about how I need to wait on the subs to do something before I can really form an opinion. Then there's Rhonda, so I suppose I could be searching for reasons to defend Rhonda. That's literally the only option where I postpone my readslist to find something to defend someone.

The actual reason where I didn't have enough time to properly make a readslist makes a lot more sense.

Ed i think the "following the clear" issue can simply be solved by making everyone aware that a claimed vig doesnt mean confo-vig. I think the long term effect of losing our vig (if we lose the 50/50) or our vig being roleblocked constantly (if we win the 50/50) is worse than people following the clear. That being said, everyone except wilkinson has posted and no one decided to claim vig which means the CV probably shot magnus. I honestly dont think wilkinson is the vig either.

Whats up with Rhonda? She came on after ed lynched her yet she still didnt post anything. She even said that the readlist was "by the latest" coming out today! Mona also promised that she was gonna make a readlist today too.

Roderick you say you've read the thread yet you decide to give us your sagely advice that we should look at behavioural changes when Mona and others have already gone and compared all the changes in reads between day 1, 2 and 3? I am sure you've also seen the countless number of times where people have asked for a readlist from you seeing as how you claim to have read the thread, yet you dont decide to do one? I mean i understand that you may not be able to explain what the previous roderick was thinking but not bothering to make a readlist after 2 (and a quarter) days of content and not say anything useful or new on top of that is unacceptable.

UL mona Lynch Roderick