Search found 37 matches for Ryou N.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Momoko D. wrote:Mollie and Ryou had reads on point tbh.

However, Dr. A made the right choice.
Dr. A made the right choice.
Dr. A made the right choice.
Dr. A made the right choice.
Dr. A made the right choice.
Dr. A made the right choice.

Please make this a meme.

Also, yes, I had the right read but I stopped halfway .

Game 18: Jungle Republic

MFW Dr A is inactive for over a day and I wait with lynching just so he can respond and then he comes on and immediately lynches me. Not cool.

Katrina, yes, the links were there, as I pointed out. I should have gone with it but oh well, I didn't, your posts and explanations made much more sense than Dr A's to me.

I blame Dr A
I blame the fact that I was the second sub.
I blame myself for not following Katrina. I still think Dr A would rather go after me than after Katrina but oh well.

GG Mafia, WP.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Plurality on Katrina? O.o

Kat's post does make sense to me. Deadline is tomorrow and I am pretty convinced I will be on Dr A. I'm not going to lynch just yet, obviously, but I don't think I'll be swayed.

If you are Mafia, Kat, then wow, gg wp. And Mollie, don't scream at me.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

I swear I'm overthinking this, sigh...

Game 18: Jungle Republic

As I said, you were obvious Mafia to me because I hadn't really question Katrina being Town before and from my PoV if she's Town, you're Mafia.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Okay, I probably dug a nice grave for myself and the Town with that post. Make a stream of consciousness response which will make me look scummy and I'll have to explain it a roundabout way? Yep, that's me, mental shortcuts FTW! It will make perfect sense to you once you see how I am.

No, I did not "Scum wouldn't act so scummy". What I meant was how Katrina was such a strong read for most people that she was almost considered a cleared person lately.

Dr A? His decline in activity aside, he was only cleared from being a WW suspect because he was on Sullivan and his buddying with Dr. Yung came up quite often iirc.

So between the two of you Katrina was "obvious Town" and Dr A was "obvious Mafia". It's completely different than Egan being obvious WW.

I began the day with questioning those reads because I had this thought "Wait, WHY am I so convinced she's Town?" and once I reread the game, I wasn't convinced about this at all anymore.

And by the situation everyone can relate to I meant the situation where the most Townish player and Town leader is revealed as scum at the end of the game and everyone goes "WHAT?!" for 10 seconds, and then they go "OOOOoooooohhhh, that's right".

Game 18: Jungle Republic

I never did because it's self-explanatory. I questioned your Town read because it hit me we perceive you as Town on an axiomatic basis you led the Town while you did quite a few scummy things, certainly no fewer than Dr A or me.

And the "too Townish" part was probably poor phrasing, it was something along the lines of "Out of the 2 Dr A seems to be the obvious Mafia, and it's too obvious". Anyone who played Mafia for some time can relate to this.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Katrina K. wrote:

Ryou N. wrote:

Dr. Akihabara wrote:Fair point. I only recently jumped up in activity, so I had forgotten.

I feel like I want to lynch Ryou, but I don't want to lose. I'm fairly confident she's town, though. (She being Kat, obviously )

I was just thinking, and I think I know who you are, Kat. Which, I don't know if I'll ever take you seriously again after, Shoutacon. But yeah, if you're one of the two I think you are, then I'll be insanely creeped. I think Ryou is mafia still though. I: (I was AFK for a bit inbetween this paragraph)

No surprises there that you want to lynch me, I'm definitely scummier than Kat. We both are. What makes me suspicious about her is that she's almost TOO Townish while most of her reads flipped Town and if we are to pinpoint exact moment of one's scumminess, she doesn't come off more clear than Dr A.

In fact, where does the idea that Kat is so Townish come from? Is it because she leads the Town and posts actively and consistently while it can't be said about Dr A and me?

That sounds oddly worded tbh. Like seriously how can someone be "too townish" We all have things that can be seen as scummy by someone else. We all have things that can be viewed as townie by someone else. What you are saying, or it seems to me like you are saying, is that I can be scum because I have such a strong town read. And then you are questioning why am I a town read?

At the beginning of the day I was inclined to believe Dr. A is scummier. Think about who E gang was pushing on. And the only way e gang could have won is if he got the mafia lynched. So E gang's biggest mafia read was Ryou, it seems, but then again reads aren't always reliable.

Dr. A, you won't take me seriously because of a joke, which you defended day 1 might I add, even though I tend to have sound logic and am capable of posting quality posts. Seems legit. Or are you suggesting that you will take that into account of future reads on me, which isn't a smart thing to do because you would be using an old  game as basis to formulate reads? Note that this is just pointing out how that thought is flawed and won't be calculated into my reads on you.

I literally laid out the reason why Egan was pushing on me at the beginning of the day or so.

He was going to get lynched as a WW suspect. You, Katrina, were confirmed as not WW, and we both agreed about Dr A being a very unlikely WW. I was the only one he could have hoped to convince Town of being a WW.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Dr. Akihabara wrote:Fair point. I only recently jumped up in activity, so I had forgotten.

I feel like I want to lynch Ryou, but I don't want to lose. I'm fairly confident she's town, though. (She being Kat, obviously )

I was just thinking, and I think I know who you are, Kat. Which, I don't know if I'll ever take you seriously again after, Shoutacon. But yeah, if you're one of the two I think you are, then I'll be insanely creeped. I think Ryou is mafia still though. I: (I was AFK for a bit inbetween this paragraph)

No surprises there that you want to lynch me, I'm definitely scummier than Kat. We both are. What makes me suspicious about her is that she's almost TOO Townish while most of her reads flipped Town and if we are to pinpoint exact moment of one's scumminess, she doesn't come off more clear than Dr A.

In fact, where does the idea that Kat is so Townish come from? Is it because she leads the Town and posts actively and consistently while it can't be said about Dr A and me?

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Dr. Akihabara wrote:

Katrina K. wrote:Kimimaro was in the top 20 posters. and Morita too. Although Im catching up to Morita. prob by the end of the game I'll surpass him inb4 he starts commenting a bunch of times to prevent that from happening lol

You'd have to get 160 posts to pass Kimimaro. Another day with 50 posts? Good Luck xD


So I came in today, thinking Ryou has to be mafia. But I think I'm just biased towards Katrina, and I'm not sure which one of you, exactly, is the mafia. I mean, I'm so confident that Katrina's town, but what if she is mafia? I don't even know anymore, but Ryou seems less and more so scummy because of today. Less: He's putting in work and trying to figure it out. More: The extra work and the jump of activity is a bit sketchy (hypocritical much? Lmao) It's like, when Marina was trying to defend herself? Katrina's also been very aggro all game, which has proven many times to be a likely townie trait. But might Katrina be using that to her advantage? Ryou has been playing middle of the street, which almost got me lynched last game. Does this mean he's scum, and I just play oddly? I'm still leaning on Ryou but I'mnot 100% sure.

1. That's what I was thinking.

2. Jump in activity? I was pretty active, or at least trying to be active, ever since I subbed in. I didn't take part in pre-deadline discussion yesterday, but I announced that in advance.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

I'll throw in A LOT of quotes, often pointing out things to be considered with little or arbitrary interpreation, often stating "This is a possibility". This might mean that the theory is a bit stretchy but I don't dismiss it.

Day 1:

Dr. Akihabara wrote:My avatar creeps me out, too.

Lynch Melanie B.

Don't want any inactives.

Inactivity lynch 10 hours into the game? Granted, she made 2 pre-game posts but quite a few people didn't participate in pre-game posting. Warning his Mafia partner?

Dr. Akihabara wrote:I'm liking Mollie H. so far, and Dr. Yung.

Okay.

Melanie B. wrote:Early game reads:
Sullivan J.: just a filler lynch on Katrina, nothing to really go off of.  Null read.
Melanie B.: is me :3
Dr. Yung: Brings up good points about hypo, leaning town
Ralph I.: No posts since game started. Null.
Katrina K.: Even while messing around, she makes good quality posts when questioned.  Leaning town.
Ryou N.: All filler posts so far. Slightly leaning scum.
Egan G.: 2 filler posts, supports the hypo idea which is not the best way to support hypo in the slightest.  Leaning scum.
Captain Aiden: Agrees that hypo isn't the best idea, but hypoes anyway?  Leaning scum.
Dominick C.: Almost every post is attacking Katrina for shitposting, which is understandable even though she really isn't.  Null read.
Ephraim M.: A couple of wall posts trying to dictate how the mafia should play and how hypo he's against hypo. Leaning town.
Mollie H.: Just realized she was in this game. Null read.
Dr. Akihabara:  Putting in tons of input on other people's lynches.  Leaning town.

Not much to go after here, both Katrina and Dr. A are Town reads. They both acted pretty Townish too. Shoutout to my inactive predecessor!

Katrina K. wrote:

Ephraim M. wrote:I am done. I am so done. I am not stating the obvious, and I'm doing it in such long posts so even those who are very slow can understand what I'm trying to tell them, if you've got a problem with that I'll do it simpler, though I doubt it will have any effects, tell me, how would you have responded if I'd simply said "hey mafia go help the town, you're a part of the town in many ways anyways", you guys would have asked an explanation, so I have to go out of my way to do the roundabout thing, so I skipped a few steps and what do I get for putting in more effort? you guys think it's fishy how I try to make these things simple and understandable for everybody. so I am going to listen to your advice, and not give any explanations anymore. unless of course that's not what you guys mean? I have several ways of playing this game, if this way where I try to help town with logic others understand doesn't work, I'll go back to my own logic, where I will be right about everything but nobody will understand why, meaning it's pretty pointless to town. make your choice. yes you could see this as another roundabout way to go about things, but I haven't had any response as I am making this post, so for now this is still how I'm doing things.

good job on giving the werewolves a target, you really are a pro at this game aren't you? I tell you all to not give away things that only the werewolves should be thinking about, and what do you do? you give them an argument why they should kill someone! really, do NOT mention who would be a good target for the night, let the werewolves figure that out for themselves will you? it means we've got a better chance at keeping the good people with us.

The thing is not everyone has the time to read long posts. -blushes- I know my time is taken up by all my suitors! Lolicons.

I mean its great to have the explanations there to get a better grasp of everyones feelings, but some people wont even pay mind to half of what you say because its so long, but look at the general reactions to the long posts in other forum games. Plus posting long posts about things that are kinda obvious isnt exactly helping town.

There was no need to restate the position the mafia is to them. They have probably already developed a strategy... and if they hadnt, well guess what... now its gonna be a hell of a lot harder to catch them because they might not change how they act after the wws are gone. It's not even that you go about stating these things in a roundabout way. The problem is that you are stating these obvious things, which are somethings so obvious, its kinda hard to disagree with them. Which makes you look more town-like in comparison. It's easy to see someone as town if they say some obvious things... Dont get me wrong you've brought up some unique points.

The thing that I find most odd about you is how you are saying that we are acting so stupid. It's Day 1. We barely have anything to go off of right now. The way you are acting, you seem to think like you are on some higher level than the rest of us. As if you have more information than us... But let's be honest, unless you are scum, you don't. So don't go telling us how we are stupid or actibg stupid, else id be inclined to think you are scum. Shoutacon.

Something about the part when you accuse Ephraim of helping Mafia develop the strategy. What he did was rational and beneficient for Town - he gave arguments why Mafia should scumhunt for WWs, making sure that Mafia will have a "temporary truce" with Town which was the way to go.

Also, keep in mind this part:

Katrina K. wrote:
The problem is that you are stating these obvious things, which are somethings so obvious, its kinda hard to disagree with them. Which makes you look more town-like in comparison. It's easy to see someone as town if they say some obvious things... Dont get me wrong you've brought up some unique points.

Dr. Yung wrote:So much stuff happened lol. But really it's just sullivan agreeing with everyone, ephraim getting annoyed, ralph saying some monologue about the game, dominic claiming seer and #KatrinaVsEphraim. Ephraim its just stuff like "Seer gets WW/Not WW" and others which makes me think "....you dont say?". Yes there has been times where people have been drinking too much but like....lol?

I suggest that katarina should not be lynched today because not only is the reason invalid but also we will lose so much content per day. I also suggest we do not lynch the two seer claims for obvious reasons. Now that we have options eliminated, we should discuss who we should lynch as deadline is tomorrow. I am honestly leaning towards Sullivan because of his BW at the start and when he does produce a decent post, he hasnt given anything new, the only thing that i felt unique is the fact he attempted to go aggro on ephraim. When i agreed with egan i wasnt implying that what he did was scummy. But Sullivan started talking about "beating around the bush" which is not what he did. He was getting to the point but he was explaning in ways that everyone can understand (a bit patronizing to my taste but whatever). Ryou could also be a good lynch because he also sorta repeated what everyone said but I am not really sure. I would like to know everyone's thoughts about who we should lynch.

TLDR: If you skipped to this without reading the whole post then GO FUCKING READ IT please. If you have read it then thank you <3

Hm, he did suggest unlynching Katrina. Not like a Townie wouldn't suggest it, lynching Katrina would have been stupid, but still, it WAS Dr. Yung who suggested it.

Also, Dr. Yung first says Ephraim only says obvious things and then supports Ephraim's posts... compare that with the Katrina's post.

Suggesting a lynch on me but doing it in a hesitant manner, hm. Something to consider. Even if it does make me look Mafia-ish, I'm not going to omit that and cherry-pick the things that only make either one of you look scummy.

Katrina K. wrote:You are gonna have to deal with my lolicon posts for some time, deal with it. I can't have a little fun with this game, god. If you want to talk about creepy, look at Egan G. He's also acting "creepy" but no one has called him out on it. gosh.

Ephraim, there are NO new players here. aj never picks new players for the anon games. Sure th theme ma be new to some of us, but if they read the information aj provided, they would know most of this stuff. Maybe there are people new to forum mafia here. Or maybe there are people new to the anon games. Either way, they are relatively well seasoned to playing mafia. So you dont need to recap for us, and if you JUST realized what you said now, I doubt you will be of any help to us in the long run Ephraim.

Dr. Young, I dont know if that counts as a war that deserves a #. This is not #ZanevsNumaji or #VictoriavsNumaji. it isnt even to tht scale.

Im okay with a sullivan or Egan lynch, as well as a possible ephraim lynch. I'll try to post a more detailed reads list within an hour. Hopefully I get back here before the next official starts to post that.

tl;dr: Buy my Girl Scout cookies! Lolicons.

Pushing on Ephraim. The problem is I'm pretty sure I already knew he flipped Town during my first read through the thread so because I subbed in late I don't have my "blind" read on him from day 1, I only have my "benefit of hindsight" conviction that I wouldn't have considered him a scum and a target for lynching.

Katrina K. wrote:Katrina K. - I'm town. But I obviously cant confirm that. My statements have been fairly useful, but most people have demeaned them simply on the basis that all the "lolicons" was creepy. The basis of the lynches on me are because "I'm not helpful" because I "shitpost." Seriously, cant a girl have some fun.
Dr. Akihabara - I originally rl'd him, but he's proven himself to be more townie than I gave him credit for. Town read.
Egan G. -Some filler statements... (like really half of that last post-the one about Mel B.-was filler.) his last reads feels a little off, but maybe im being swayed by my own reads... so imma put ypu as null
Sullivan J. - Gave a target to the werewolves, great job. Imo seems like a mafia trying to lure the nightkill away from himself and his scumbuddies. Mafia read.
Dr. Yung - Lolicon. :p Tbh he's pretty helpful for the most part. I think he's town.
Melanie B. - Has been relatively helpful so I think she's town.
Ralph I. - Ephraim had a point earlier when saying to leave the nightkill up to the wolves to decide. You may have just made it THAT much easier for them to kill the seer. good job there buddy. Also ectremely inactive, and has made only two posts since the game started. His posts havent been all that helpful either.
Ryou N. - Has only really talked about hypo... and that it isnt useful. His posts are short. Null read
Captain Aiden - agrees hypo int good, then contradicts himself saying hes fine with hypo. Then he claims seer. I dont even know with you. He hasnt said much else. Null
Dominick C. - Oh Dominick. I really cant telll if you are town or not because you are so aggressive. He is still kinda tunneling on me, I swear you are Hawkie. Very illogical at times tho. Esp. when he claimed seer but said that he doesnt want to die. His lynch on me has no more basis than the fact that I say lolicon a lot. He said it himself. He doesnt care aout the useful stuff I have said, as he has mentioned before. So I think he is likely to be scum. However he has had an occasion bout of townieness.
Ephraim M. - Stated things that are pretty obvious. Has called some of  our actions stupid (we dont even know if that guy who hupoed was hypoing or not) which I personally just fnd distasteful. He gets salty af. I could see him as a townie who's new to the anon games... but I am more inclined to believe he is scum trying to pass as a townie cuz most people are better at anon than that.
Mollie H. - Has been relatively quiet, thus I dont have much input on her. So I'm null on her. Join the girl scouts Mollie. We have cookies :p

My options are sullivan e gang and dr yung. I think dr yung is town, which leaves e gang and sullivan... therefore

Lynch Sulivan

Town read on both Mafia, and on Dr A as well. Not that this surprises me - I'm fairly positive I would be leaning Town on all 3 of them as well.

Still on Ephraim. Mafia read on Sullivan yet she lynched him. Why wouldn't you lynch some other scum read? Lynching Mafia wasn't a great move. Claiming Mafia read on him to distance herself from Mafia in the future? Possible.

Dr. Akihabara wrote:I'm pretty sure we all think Sullivan is a good lynch.

No it's more like BradvsLakoko

And, DUDE! We cannot lynch someone because they say Lolicon and joke around. She's been way more helpful than you, and I'd quicker support a lynch on you. Stop pushing on her for the joking around, jfc.

Dr. A and Katrina Mafia buddying!!! Putting this in to point out that I don't read "buddying" with Mafia as automatically scummy since Mel, Yung, Dr. A, and Katrina were ALL Townish.

Dr. Akihabara wrote:I was kidding about the Brad vs Lakoko, sorry. :[

I should post a reads list, but I've been super busy the last few days. I definitely see Dr. Yung as town, due to his helpful posts. Same goes for Katrina, but maybe her side jokes are a slight town read? Why would scum draw unnecessary attention to themselves? But, they could fall back on this point later, so keeping this out here. Ephraim seems townie but could easily be scum trying to act as a frustrated townie, but that's a low chance.

Town reads: Ephraim, Dr. Yung, Katrina.
Town Lean: Mollie
Null: All the rest besides the following:
Scum Lean: Ralph, Egan
Scum: Sullivan, Dominic (Dominick? AJ spells things really oddly.)

So 4 in that null, I forget who. Um, Ryou? I think that's someone. Whatever, will go into detail once I get back.

"Same goes for Katrina [Katrina is Town], but ["but" implies contradiction] maybe her side jokes are a slight town read?"

Huh?

Also, most active people were Ephraim, Katrina, and yourself. Self-clearing with saying scum wouldn't draw attention?

Dr. Yung wrote:

Ephraim M. wrote:Ralph, the relevance of the nightkill for the werewolves was in that you gave them ideas for targets, you were talking about who could possibly be the seer, and that's a bad idea.

It doesn't really matter anymore, I think we all know who is getting NKed even if Ralph is trying to give them ideas on who to kill. I think Sullivan is scummier than Egan, although i am considering Ryou a lot. I'd probably still lynch sullivan today tho.

Vote Sullivan <insert letter>

Getting on my predecessor more confidently than in his previous post.

Day 2:

Dr. A and Katrina started with lynching Dominic. Made sense to me.

Ephraim M. wrote:I AM GOING TO STATE THE PERSON WHO DID THE READ AND THEN THE READ AFTER THAT, DON'T THINK I AM MAKING A READLIST, THESE ARE ALL READS PEOPLE MADE ON DR YUNG.

Melanie B.: she said she thought dr yung was leaning town, nothing special here.

Ralph I.: never actually made a readlist, in fact so far all he's been doing is talk about who the seer is and argue with us for pointing out that he probably shouldn't be saying that aloud.

Katrina K.: "pretty helpful for the most part. I think he's town." nothing special here, it was the general opinion

Ryou N.: really hasn't done a whole lot other than complaining about how this game is like ps mafia.

Egan G.: "town read. some people may see his aggression as scum but I don't." <--- I didn't check if it's the exact wording but the meaning is the same. This one strikes me as odd, why did he have to say people may see the aggression as scum when nobody even pointed out the aggression before him?

Captain Aiden: 0 opinions on other people. 0. careful scum? confused townie?

Dominick C.: at some point he mentioned he could see Dr yung as being scum, so far this is the only person I've seen saying something like that. I think he's either smarter than I've given him credit for, or he wasn't a team with dr yung. He also doesn't share the same "don't lynch egan" opinion with dr yung.

Ephraim M.: I obviously shouldn't be interpretating my own words, I know what I meant, but in this case I doubt my opinion on the matter is of importance. As I recall I never actually stated a clear opinion on dr yung, though I probably agreed with most people in thinking he wasn't acting particularly scummy, I should have known better, especially since I had an idea of who he might be.

Mollie H: Just as it might "behoove" us to wait until finding the second werewolf before having the seer claim, it "behooves" us for you to start talking, saying things that aren't just repeating what we, or rather dr yung, has already settled. Yes she has made a a whopping 4 posts, 3 fillers and 1 that might as well have been a filler as all she did was repeat what dr yung had already established.

Dr. Akihabara: From the post after dr yung's death it is apparent that akihabara trusted dr yung, though if I am right about who yung is, that is really no surprise. He gets people to trust him like that. On the other hand he did say Egan as a scum lean, it's a small thing, a connections of which we don't know if it's correct or not.

there you go guys, now you can stop being too lazy to type out some text, and play this game for a change, rather than sitting on your lazy asses without thinking. it's better when you're thinking.

Putting it here because good analysis.

Katrina K. wrote:based of what's above we should look into Ralph, if aiden or dominick isnt the wolf... since he did seem to try to communicate who the WWs should nightkill on here, just like sullivan did.

I honestly dont know what the hell read he had on me though... I think it was a town read, but he was probably hoping that plurality could fall on me for a mislynch, since some people didnt like my "shitposting". Im not entirely sure though.

Also, I think we should definitely look into aiden because of the retract he just did... but I still doubt Dominick is the seer because of the way hes been acting. However, I'll push that thought aside for now until we get a cc.

I find it weird that aidan retracted all of a sudden the day AFTER his scum buddy was lynched, and also AFTER I mentioned our options for the lynch were between him and Dominick. Therefore

Unlynch Dominick, Lynch Captain Aidan

Lynching Aidan did make sense.

Day 3:

Melanie B. wrote:Alright, so we lynched the seer. This confirms Katrina as not WW.  She could obviously still be mafia, but that's for another day.  Captain Aiden seems fairly suspicious for backing out on his seer claim like that, but he might have just failed horribly at hypo.  Dr. Akihabara is fairly scummy for being the only lynch on Domenick, although he was admittedly pretty scummy himself.  

Im starting to understand the different mindsets people have in anon games and I'm suspecting Ralph to be scum just based on how he's been acting.  He was inactive early and was very apologetic, he didn't believe Domenick's seer claim initially, which would explain why a seer claim wasn't targetted night one.  He also seems to agree with what everyone else is saying and not adding many new points himself.  

If I were to lynch right now it would be either Ralph or Aiden, but I'd like to see some discussion on who everyone else suspects before finalizing anything.  I'd especially like to see some activity from inactives such as Egan, Ryou, and Mollie's new sub.

Noting scumminess of Dr A's action and quickly backpedaling out of that statement.

Later that day: #KatrinavsMollie

Katrina K. wrote:Ralph, I was referring to Dominick's tunnel on me Day 1. Although I can see how you may have confused it as me referring to you. Also I meant you could have changed the lynch because you posted after I did thus you are the only person that can be confirmed to have had the opportunity to read my post before the deadline. I legit stated that I thought Dominick was town and that we should have lynch Captain Aidan through valid points. You decided not to lynch Aidan letting plurality hit Dominick, costing us our seer.

Not saying it's faulty logic but your lynching was very rash... shifting blame?

Dr. Akihabara wrote:Since I finally have internet, I can explain why I've been MIA. Due to packing for college and getting ready and moving, I've been unable to do anything except from phone, which is extremely slow and burns my hand. I forgot that I had lynched Dominick and couldn't UL and I feel terrible since it was my lynch that killed him. x.x

I'll be a bit AWOL until Thursday or so, then I'll be back and hopefully, I'll be able to contribute.

Inactivity period.

[Long quote incoming, I'll bold the most relevant parts.]

Katrina K. wrote:

Mollie H. wrote:

Katrina K. wrote:

Mollie H. wrote:Katrina, it's nice that you found the time to write long posts like that, but please try not to fill them with fluff. The only thing you said in that post which isn't fluff, once again, is that Aidan must be werewolf because he "cc'd" Dominick. He did not. It was a failed HYPO. This is incredibly obvious and evident from the fact that he didn't go through with it and claim a result; a werewolf would have done because it could be seen as a backpedal by naive players who refuse to look at the big picture, like you. Now stop defending Egan and let us lynch him, please and thank y

Defending E Gang? Please even I have acknowledged that E gang is scummy. But scumminess alone does not determine who the werewolf is. There are other factors and you know it. So why are you saying that he is definitely werewolf. He could be mafia for all we know, and if he is mafia then there is no point in lynching him right now. What makes E Gang a better lynch target than the other inactives like Ryou for example who was also deemed as scummy by some of us.

"fluff" Really? You want to know what fluff is? Lolicon shoutacon. All my references to girl scout cookies. thats fluff. There was only one fluff statement and that was in the first reply the one about girl scout cookies.

found the time? Its a Friday, there's no scool for me Friday nights nor is there school today. Most of my non-fluff posts have been in depth like that.

Maybe he intended to make us think that he was trying to hypo but retractd when there was only one other claim because he knew who the seer was and could easily night kill him, and he didnt want to look so scummy when the seer died. Plus the seer didnt out him as WW. Plus if he was going to hypo, which is done to protect the cop, why would he retract when the WW would then be left with 1 seer claim to target.

Yes, defending Egan. If you think he is scummy and are town you would do the only sensible thing and vote for him, since mafia will be a good lynch if not optimal and clearly no one agrees with you with Aidan because what he did has nothing to do with what alignment he is. Why the hell do you want to lynch him so bad? You're coming up with all kinds of random theories about how he might possibly be scum (like he was trying to make us think he was trying to HYPO) as opposed to exercising occam's razor and just saying maybe he really did fail to HYPO. It makes total sense that he would lol.

Also fluff is anything which isn't contribution. So yeah, your whole last post was either fluff or completely flawed lol.

How is that the only sensible thing? It isn't sensible in this theme to lynch someone who is scummy but isn't likely to be werewolf. You have not provided a sound argument as to why E gang is Werewolf. But you would know this, if you read the theme's description. WW's are the only ones that can nightkill. That is why they are the optimal lynch.  Sure I'll give you that it's good to lynch the mafia, but right now we kinda need to focus on finding the WW, because that would reduce the chances of us losing a townie.

I don't see how "clear" it is that "no one" agrees with me. Half of town is inactive and hasn't said anything since Day 1. If anyone disagreed with me, they should have voiced their concerns, but no one has so therefore it is unclear as to whether they agree with me or not. And just you disagreeing doesn't constitute everyone disagreeing with me. You are not everyone. So please if anyone disagrees with my reasoning for Captain Aidan being WW, (besides Mollie) voice your concerns.

I'm sorry if my "random theories" don't make sense. Im just explaining that if he was a townie doing hypo, the Werewolf would have killed either him or Dominick Night 1. The point you brought up, as valid as it may have been, about how Aidan would have only retracted like that if he was town, however is contradicted by the night 1 kill.

I have a gut read that Aidan is WW. That's why I want to lynch him.

If I'm "defending" E gang, you are overtly and staunchly defending Captain Aidan. I said we could push off an Aidan lynch.

And my last post was definitely not fluff. I am contributing by bringing up new ideas. I am contributing by giving my thoughts a basis that is sound and logical. I am contributing by explaining my lynches. Just because I am not doing what you want me to do doesn't mean I am not contributing. In fact, I am one of the biggest contributors that is still alive.

Day 1 you voted for a person you explicitly marked as MAFIA read.

ajhockeystar wrote:Ryou N. has been subbed out. A new user is now using the account.

The point of me subbing - slightly more than a day before Day 3 deadline.

Melanie B. wrote:Alright, the Egan/Aiden discussion is getting us nowhere, basically because it's just Katrina and Mollie going at each other with everyone else watching.  

Aiden's seer claim and unclaim can very well have been a failed hypo out of misunderstanding, he claimed seer after the hypo idea was shot down but claims that he didn't realize that we had decided against it before he claimed seer.  The main problem is that he never really said that he unclaimed seer, he just thought we assumed he did, which is what caused the controversy.  He may just be a/an unlucky/dumb townie, but the whole thing is scummy as hell.

 Egan doesn't seem to know what we're even discussing, which is troubling because Mollie is pushing to lynch him.  I don't see a whole lot of scumminess in his posts except for the weird readlist in which he reads Akihabara and I as almost confirmed townies and gives town reads on Dr. Yung and Aiden for interesting reasons, Yung for aggressiveness and Aiden for weirdness.  I don't see him as my top scumread per se, but he's certainly up there.

I kind of called out Ralph in my last post and he's responded by making better posts with more new content, I don't see him as a townread yet due to this happening right after I brought it up, but I don't feel that he is as scummy anymore.  Ralph, you said that you called me out on my inactivity yesterday, but all I see is a read you made noting of it.  I'm not really pointing it out as scummy because you were right that I didn't contribute at all yesterday because I was too busy to post, but what you did was hardly calling me out.

A scum read on Aiden to go with Katrina's reasoning? Says he's "scummy as hell" but doesn't lynch him, allowing plurality to claim him. To avoid connection between her and Katrina? Possible.

Ryou N. wrote:I don't really like subbing. I'm better with reads when I watch the action "live" and then possibly read than when I dig through pages of text but here goes.

Aiden - just plain weird. Admits to trying to initiate a hypo when the general consensus was that it's a bad idea, goes inactive, then admits a bad play to explain himself. Weird weird weird.

Ralph I. - His early activity had strong "Katrina is shitposting" content, then he agrees with her logic, then argues with her again. Doesn't lynch, lets plurality happen... tries to sit in the backgroud.

Katrina K. - Town read, sound logic. I don't get why Seer would inspect her though... a waste of an inspect, if she is Scum, then she is Mafia.

Egan G. - chaotic, random and bad accusations towards Epihraim, pushing a lynch on Dominick...

Melanie B. - She does seem intent on protecting Aidan. No one is interested in protecting WW at this point though... And I sort of agree with her on Aidan acting like a Village Idiot.

Mollie H. - I don't really like sudden jump on Katrina but that might be because she's my Town read.

Dr A. - No solid read.

Lynch Ralph I., my strongest scum read at this point.

My first post, I subbed in a day before the deadline and I wanted to participate before the lynch. The discussion about Ralph that will follow my read list will be the focus of the day 4, resulting in a mislynch.

Katrina K. wrote:In multiple people's defense, including my own, Dominick did act scummy so people who pushed for a lynch on him aren't all that scummy for that reason. Let me get that out there now.

Dominick's tunnel vision was likely to get me inspected if Sullivan lived, which meant they had at least one free nightkill before they would have had to gamble as to whether Dominick would inspect a WW or not, or to  play it safe and kill Dom.

Reads list...

Captain Aiden(1)- So I get what people are saying about the possibility of a failed hypo, but honestly, all things considered, I feel it is very unlikely. He acted like he retracted Day 1, and I doubt it was a "disappearing post" like what happened to Zane in Game 15, because he woulda mentioned it. Also why would he claim then retract Day 1, as he claims he was planning to do. That makes no sense, even if he failed at hypo. There was no reason for him to have unclaimed Day 1, even if we were pressuring him over agreeing with hypo and then hypoing anyways. The other seer claim was equally as scummy at the time. he's a scummy read to me regardless, because his story doesn't quite add up.  I feel he was just luring the real seer to come out, if not just trying to pull a follow the cop say a few people were townie, and eventually nightkill the seer before revealing himself as a hypo fakeclaim.. Because of this I feel he is most likely to be WW.

Egan G.(1)- I'm going to assume you were referring to Anon Game 15... mainly because Zane and Numaji and The Instructor were all aggressive, Victoria too, I guess... and was actually a major anon game being discussed. He hasn't given much content or much of anything for that matter. I doubt he's town to be honest, but I don't really see him as WW. He is however towards the top of my scum reads, and once WW is gone, I would like to lynch him.

Ralph I.(1)- Slight scum lean, possibly may change in the future. Ryou brought up a point that I will have to look into.  Namely, the fact that he contradicted himself... but I don't feel it is much of a reason to lynch him over. Mainly because it wasn't over the same issues. People can agree with something I say and disagree with something else  I say. That doesn't make them scummy. He has started to contribute a little more, which is a good thing and has given him some town credit, but it was due to some of us pressuring him to speak up and contribute. I still feel that it is odd that he didn't at lastly to pull plurality off of Dominick, but I'll let it slide for now. Either way I don't feel its a good idea to lynch him now.

Katrina K.(0)- I've got girl scout cookies, try our newest flavor... Lolipop Cherry.

Dr. Akihabara(0)- He's gone into inactive territory lately. Slight town lean, subject to change, but unlikely if he steps up his game soon and contributes well. He's contributed and I feel he has a similar mindset as me, but he just doesn't invest as much time in the game as he should.

Melanie B.(0)- Slight town lean, subject to change. Has gone deep into the inactifve territory, but has been overall townie in most of her actions. However she also needs to step up her game soon. Her lack of contribution has caused my town read on her to go down. I also call hypocrisy on the fact that she called Ralph out on inactivity when she wasn't active the day before. Which also lowers her townie cred imo.

Ryou N.(0)- Subbed twice now. Is this the next Mary J? so um other than your cool avatar, I have nothing on you. This is bad. You better not get yourself subbed fcs. I like that you provided a reads list although I haven't read it intensely yet, and i don't remember when is deadline so I'm trying to post this ASAP. My only problem was with the reasoning you lynched Ralph. I don't feel that Ralph is scummy because of his shift in stances as to me, mainly because they don't appear to have affected his reads on me. Although it may be because you just subbed in and read everything in one go that you feel that way.

Mollie H.(0)- believe it or not I don't think you are scum. Imo you are either a misguided townie, or mafia, but I have a higher lean towards the former mainly because you wouldn't defend the likely to be WW so intensively like that imo. Actually now that I typed that out, I realized that was a stupid statement. The vibe I get from you however, is that of a confused townie, and not that of a mafia defending her partner. Also I believe Aidan woulda lynched gang by now. Im rushing this read since i think only 2 mins left till deadline nut i wan this out there in case i die. So town lean, possible mafia, i doubt wolf

Town act more town like. Mafia act scummier. Wolf, well I probably got you lynched so... chew on your own bones

Agreeing a bit with me about Ralph but doing it in a subtle way... The following day she will follow my lynch, shifting plurality from Egan to Ralph.

Day 4:

Ryou N. wrote:So we are left with 4v1v1 which allows us one mislynch, although we'd have to successfully lynch first WW and then Mafia if we do mislynch.

I'm wondering if WW went for Mafia on purpose. At 4v2v1, NK on Town + lynching Town + NK on Town again would grant Mafia victory. At 3v2v1 WW would need to stay alive for 2 days, assuming no NLs. At 4v1v1 it still needs to survive 2 lynches but it's less likely for Mafia to win, putting less pressure on the Night Kill.

Werewolf needed one Mafia gone either this night, this day, or next night so I assume it went for their Mafia read since it needed Mafia killed sooner or later and while Mafia's death benefitted Town as well, it did not increase Town's chance vs. Werewolf while it did increase both parties' chance to win vs. Mafia.

Sorry if it had been too chaotic but I just wanted to put it out here. I'll get to reading and updating my read list in a few hours or tomorrow.

My NK analysis.

Mollie H. wrote:

Egan G. wrote:what the FUCK my reads have been fucking off. Mel b was mafia... I'm honestly lost now.

^ Looks like an incredibly transparent attempt to distance himself from the kill ^

Vote: Egan G. Trust me this time and not Katrina ffs, both Dominick and Aidan were clearly town >_>.

Preach, Mollie.

Katrina K. wrote:Well honestly, its not like anyone had a better lead, but seriously I'm left with the question why did the Werewolf not kill Dominick or Captain Aidan N1? and then I expected Mollie to die when I saw Aidan wasn't wolf. All-in-all... this werewolf is trash.

Although its a good thing a mafia died. If she had lived, it woulda been plylo. Seriously though whats with the mafia being so pro town... I guess its cuz mafia are kinda like VTs but can share their thoughts.

Honestly I'm scared that e gang is a town that's just really scummy now. but he is one of my two strongest scum reads. Lets not hammer though

Dr. akihabara's most recent post seems very filler-esque to me. I doubt he is wolf though, mainly because the WWs had nothing major to gain by bussing N1. And then theres the fact that the WW didn't even kill a seer claim, which i think woulda been the smart thing for the ww to do in that situation. What made Dr. Yung so special? What made Ephraim so special? What made Melanie so special? What ties the three of them together? It can't be that they were all seen as pro town, because a good chunk of us didn't trust ephraim. It can't be that they were all shaping up to be town leaders... because I woulda been killed over ephraim N2 imo, and Melanie was nowhere near leading town. A better target N3 woulda been me or mollie, with more emphasis towards Mollie. I mean if I were a WWE Gang, i would have killed Mollie and gone for the I was framed play. That might have given himself the best chance at victory.

Ryou, I highly doubt that the WW was targeting Mafia on purpose, at least, not last night. Melanie B came off as some level of town read for everyone.

Mollie, Dominick was not clearly town Day 1. A lot of us doubted him, and if it wasn't for Captain Aidan's retract, (which I mistakely saw as a scummy move, for reasons that seemed to make sense might I add) I woulda sworn on the Holy Bible he was scum.   Just because YOU saw them as obvious town, doesn't mean they were obvious town to everyone, I mean someone decided to lynch Ralph, when they could have gotten plus off of aidan. There was still a tinge of doubt amongst town... that's why the lynch wasn't changed D2, or D3.

Also E gang your "reads" were based off of a god damn avatar, how reliable is that.

That being said, I do believe E gang is scum... perhaps werewolf cuz my biggest WW read flipped town.

That being said I will let the plureaper to take his life. NO ONE ELSE VOTE E GANG, we need discussion time.

Imma have to redo my reads lists, taking into account everything that happened last night. I was shocked to see  Aidan as not WW... Im even more shocked to see Melanie was mafia.

Shifting read on Dr. A a bit. Mel was a strong Town read for everyone Day 1, Day 2-3 her Townishness decreased. She was in the same boat as Dr. A.

Also, disagreeing with my NK analysis which I believe to be correct, given Egan's reaction.

Mollie H. wrote:Katrina's mafia, Egan's werewolf, lynch the werewolf.

If Egan doesn't flip werewolf I say we just go for Kat tomorrow. She's the biggest scumread to take out, but werewolf is more important to kill.

Something to remember?

Katrina K. wrote:You realize there would be no point in lynching me right now, as I just explained. So don't even think about it. We need to find the god damn ww.

Ryou, Mollie, Ralph, and E Gang are all possibilities for WW. Anyone could be Mafia. The only reason why I'm ruling out Dr. A for being WW is because Werewolf would not bussed in that situation, plus he had the chance to push plur. off him.

Dominick C. wrote:To Dr. Akiha(insert letters here); I recognize that my attacks on Katrina come off as totally scummy. The initial post I made was before we had any sort of reads to go off of, and I kind of just tunneled it. Reading through pages 10-12ish, I agree that Sullivan J.'s posts have seemed either filler or lurk-ish, like he's trying to avoid being pulled into any sort of spotlight.

Just saying that even Dominick stated that he looked scummy... Mollie.

E gang- has filtered and been scummy since the beginning. He also thought melanie was "for sure" town solely because of her avatar. Placed pressure on Mollie, Ryou, and Sullivan, but never followed through with a lynch. The three listed above were lurkers. Yet he never pushed on the inactives of day 2... prob cuz he would have been a hypocrite. He's been defended by both mafia, and defended them as well, namely, Melanie B. Honestly I truly feel like he is mafia. I just don't see a strong connection between him and sullivan.

mollie- The first one rl'd e gang. The new Mollie, kept that lynch while adding her suspicions on me and Dr. Akihabara. Yet she decided to focus and tunnel vision on me for what reason? It isn't scummy to make bad decisions. I mean there was a huge push on Ephraim Day 1 because he was stating the obvious. There was also Dominick making a REALLY bad decision to inspect me N1. Lets also add the fact that Dominick was pushing on me day 1 ONLY because I was "shitposting" when my posts from when the game started had some worth, but because they included lolicon they were automatically "shitposts". Let me also add in the fact that you are acting like Aidan and Dom were obvious town when even some of the dead CONFIRMED town didn't think so. Guess what. Hindsight is 20/20. You can't say someone is obvious town once they have been confirmed town. And you can't say that you were 100% positive that it was a failed hypo or that they were obvious town.With two scum parties, there was still the possibility of one being mafia or WW, and you can't rule one out as not being a member of either party without that being viewed as a possible scum slip. So tell me how were you so sure that they were town? You also seem so sure that E gang is WW when its possible that he could be mafia, and while I won't deny he is scummy, I have to wonder why have you been so sure he's the WW since the second you joined the game? You could be mafia who thinks she knows who the WW is or you could be WW trying to lead us astray from targeting you, or even a townie who thinks they've caught the WW.  

Ryou- The first one filtered a bit but also posted his thoughts on hypo. The second one was straight up filler city. The current one has been relatively helpful, but also kinda jumpy when it comes to his reads. I mean he went from me being town to me being ww to me definitely being town to me possibly being mafia, albeit unlikely.  However, he's been helpful and contributing. I really don't know what to say for you either. Null.

Ralph- i see a connection between him and Sullivan in that they both fostered the WW nightkill (Sullivan stating Dr. Yung was a good target, and Ralph saying that he didn't think Dominick was seer.) Add on to the fact the first nightkill. He didn't believe that Dominick was seer, and Dominick didn't die... (albeit sullivans suggestion may have affected this) Add in the fact that he let the only seer claim die to plurality. He's been wishy washy, and reluctant to lynch. His defenses have also been lackluster. I believe this makes him a fine candidate to be the werewolf.

Dr. A- has been relatively helpful since the beginning. Most people saw him as town relatively early on in the game, we both have been on the same page. He also supported Yung and Melanie. He's gone from being helpful to not contributing at all. It may be because he's busy, but he's shown up a few times now and has still yet to contribute. He may possibly be mafia, but I'm inclined to give him the benefit of doubt. Either way, he shouldn't be lynched today. I'll keep my eye on him, but I feel he is more town than not.

Unlynch E gang Lynch Ralph.

Also i want everyone to be active NOW. Post reply read over everything We need your inputs now more than ever, and I better not see anyone hammering someone.

Shifting plurality which I was talking about. Would it be beneficial for Mafia to let WW live one more night? I'm inclined to say yes.

Going back to Town lean on Dr A. Pushing on Mollie, trying to discredit her maybe?

Katrina K. wrote:OK ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS?! I POST WITH A HUGE AMOUNT OF TIME IN ADVANCE AND ASK FOR FEEDBACK AND I DONT GET THAT?!

Don't yell at me for when Ralph gets lynched and flips town and Mollie flips WW tomorrow. This is the SAME thing that happened D2. MY LORD.

Yes, it is the same. You put on plurality, then backpedalled out of it and plurality still happened. You managed to distance yourself from both mislynches.

Did Katrina calculate that with 1 on Ralph, 1 on Egan, and 1 on Mollie no one would shift the plurality? Quite likely. Me staying on Ralph was guaranteed since I had FoSed him strongly the previous day, Mollie would stay on E Gang. The rest was pretty much inactive, so the repeated day 2 was quite likely. Anyone following her lynch on Mollie wasn't gonna happen either.

Also notice how Egan started with 2 votes on him and Ralph still got lynched with 1 plurality vote.

Day 4:

I'll stop with major quoting now, at least in this post, because Day 4 is fresher.

Katrina pushed quite strongly on Dr A because of his early response. Egan going for me over Katrina with NK wasn't unlikely at all...

I started this day with a strong Mafia read on Dr A but during my reread it shifted towards Katrina.

This was all done in one go and might be hella chaotic so do argue with me.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

You almost gave me a heart attack when you started considering Egan's obvious desperate attempt...

I'll reread the whole thread before I make a solid post but here are the thoughts I already had and my impressions from the last 7 pages that were created in my absence.

True, you can't dismiss actions of a person who was subbed. However, I wouldn't call people I subbed "lurkers". They were just not active at all, which got them subbed. Lurker is a person who is in the game and hardly posts.

You reacted to my "What if we NL" post in a similar way, which doesn't give me much info. Was Dr. A.'s strong rejection of it an attempt to distance himeslf from being a Mafia suspect?

Dr. A was also subtly suggesting you consider lynching me over Egan after all. Was he hoping Egan would go for Katrina as indicated by his reads, giving him victory? Hm, unlikely.

Take above two with a grain of salt. I already had a stated Mafia read on Dr. A for some time so I might be prone to tunnelling on him. I'll try to reevaluate my opinion on Katrina as well.

As far as assessing Egan's reads go, not sure if it brings us anywhere. He was pushing hard on me but it was the only rational thing to do. Katrina was confirmed not WW, Dr. A was eliminated as a WW possibility by both Katrina and me... Note how he scrambled what little evidence he could against me to support his idea of me being a WW - his main evidence being my "What if we NL" post, which was the worst possible outcome for WW.

I should make a more solid post in a couple of hours after I reread the thread.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Dr. Akihabara wrote:

Ryou N. wrote:Katrina K., I believe posting a read lists should be a standard practice, not something you need to manipulate people into... And I agree Egan just confirmed himself as scum.

4 hours to deadline but I will only be around for an hour or so, so...

Lynch Egan G.

OI BEFORE I FINISH READING (Currently on Page 12) WTF WHY ARE YOU SO FUCKING QUICK TO BW? No explanation? Nothing?

Sorry if I'm getting you confused with E Gang, but I'm reading rn and I Have multiple "Post a reply" tabs open, so I might be getting you confused. Someone was mimicking hard though.

Mk back to reading. AJ just told me that you posted so yeah.

Quick to BW? I was on Egan for some time now. In fact, I had lynched him before and unlynched because Katrina asked me to.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Katrina K., I believe posting a read lists should be a standard practice, not something you need to manipulate people into... And I agree Egan just confirmed himself as scum.

4 hours to deadline but I will only be around for an hour or so, so...

Lynch Egan G.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

P.S.

Ryou N. wrote:NLing benefits Mafia a lot, hurts WW a lot, and benefits Town a bit mathematically while taking decision out of Town's hands.

"NLing benefits Mafia a lot" is of course a mathematical benefit and relies on the assumption that WW doesn't have a good Mafia read. But I am not going to deny the fact that Mafia might be the primary beneficient of the NL, with Town being the secondary one.

BUT, and I will repeat this here because I consider it the most important part of my post, this plan hurts WW badly. It actually restricts WW's movepool, and it certainly doesn't "leave the game in their hands".

The fact that you based your WW read on me on my plan, which hurts the WW, shows very well that you wanted to redirect attention towards me from yourself since this reasoning doesn't make any sense at all.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Egan G. wrote:if i was ww, i would have killed katrina (since she is unlynchable today) or one of the others. There is no reason for me to kill mollie since its like stapling a sign to my head saying im ww.

interesting that ryou will leave the game in the hands of ww. Percentage wise, that would be the smart thing but mafia isnt a game about percents, its about scum hunting which should alter that.

Reads:

Dr A - started off fairly active and moved into the shadows. Is he hiding something? Is he afraid to post after how bad sullivan did? Was he just letting mel b do the work? he is gone on the day we need him the most or is he just hiding and hoping i get lynched.

Ryou - wasnt around for lynching sullivan at all. Barely gave a read at all on Mel B and didnt post any reads with dr w/e his name. Leaving the game up to ww is pretty scummy especially if he is ww!

katrina - not ww unless dominik is a moron. I kinda see her as possible mafia but not as scummy as ryou or dr a.

I'm so glad you stealth OMGUSed me because now I can point out your flawed logic.

1. NK is WIFOM at best, you can't say "I wouldn't have killed X" to clear yourself.

2. I don't want to leave the game in the hands of WW, you either failed at comprehending my posts or you're trying to pull off a cheap manipulation. If you had read my last post, you'd see that I proposed lynching you, not NLing.

3. "leaving the game in the hands of ww"? Hardly. It would actually tie up WW's hands because they'd have to go for their Mafia read while with lynching they can safely push for Town. NL would benefit both Mafia and Town (Mafia more than Town, yes) AT THE EXPENSE of the WW. Let me put up the quote again.

Egan G. wrote: Leaving the game up to ww is pretty scummy especially if he is ww!

NLing benefits Mafia a lot, hurts WW a lot, and benefits Town a bit mathematically while taking decision out of Town's hands. The last part is exactly why I treated it as a second scenario the whole time, not the primary course of action.

So, you just said I'm likely to be a WW because I came up with a plan which hurts the WW badly? Seems like you really wanted to find an argument against me but failed horribly at logic while doing so.

4. You accuse Dr. A of lurking and not posting when needed? YOU?

Egan G. wrote:Ryou - wasnt around for lynching sullivan at all.

5. You realise I have subbed in recently and the people who used this account earlier were lurking the whole time, don't' you?

Egan G. wrote:and didnt post any reads with dr w/e his name.

6. Oh, but I did. I made at least 2-3 posts where I pondered about Dr. A, arriving at the conclusion he's scummy but unlikely to be a WW. He was also the center of my last read list post. And if you mean Dr. Yung, refer to statement no.5.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Katrina K. wrote:Thats a big assumption that I would be killed by WW just saying. Also I don't feel comfortable leaving this game into WWs hands since WW has a 1/3 chance of killing mafia which has a 2/3 chance of winning. Also Melanie wasn't his main aggressor, that was Mollie. Oh Im gonna go check on something maybe Melanie pushed on him.... but then again even if that was the case we couldn't rule out bus.

I mixed up the names, disregard what I said about that. This is the result of me subbing late in the game and replying too fast.

Well WW has 1/3 of killing Mafia and we have 1/3 chance of lynching WW. The reason I would think about NLing is because I can't shake off the feeling that Dr. A MIGHT be the WW after all. By NLing we'd pit WW against the Mafia which would be make our situation at LyLo much more comfortable. But then again, I'd rather lose by mislynching than by being correct about WW and WW making an incorrect NK.

Katrina K. wrote:Now this may (not) surprise you, but I think I have a rough idea of who the WW is. And although I have made a compelling case as to why he is mafia, after some more examination and discussion (as well as looking at Game 17 and some of the opens that are on the site with the rules and stuff), I'm starting to see Egan as WW. I'm positive he's scum. E gang if you are town provide your reads ASAP and give reasoning behind your reads. It could save you and help us find the WW and mafia.

Not surprised at all. You were the one who made a strong case why Dr. A probably isn't WW so logical follow-up to that would be FoSing Egan or me as a WW.

I don't like how Egan and Dr. A didn't do much this day, with Dr. A being mostly offline after his initial post and Egan making a post of... questionable quality.

Deadline is in what, 6 and a half hours? I'll try to look at the forum every so often. If the situation doesn't change tremendously, I'm fine with going through with lynch on Egan.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Katrina K. wrote:

Egan G. wrote:h..hi

soome reads

sullivan - only really made 1 post that matters, decent ideas but kinda inactive - null (doesn't want to support or go against him?)
mel b - town for sure, makes really good posts. (decent reasoning)
dr yung - town read, people may see the aggression as scum but i dont
ralph - kinda inactive - made 1 good post, slightly town read
katrina - not even 100% sure what you are doing. Seems like a stupid villy
ryou - all filler posts, id advice everyone to look at his posts to see what a true filler post looks like - slight scum
captain a - tbh i get you and dr a confused (curse you aj!), filler posts, claimed seer, not sure what exactly you are doing - town read for weirdness  
dominik - claimed seer, seems pretty bad player, null read
ephraim - makes posts with pretty obvious info, could be town trying to help, could be mafia trying to pass as town - null
mollie - 1 ok post, others are filler, slight scum read
dr a - easy town read

top 3 of who should post: mollie, sullivan, ryou,

this is the first full reads list he posted. Moat people at the time felt like it was a little off. Wishy-washy. He supported both of the dead mafia (although lets face it he supported almost everyone, and EVERYONE had a town read on Mel B. so ib reality it was more of a 1/9 chance plus that all around support doesn't hurt him.)

Interestingly enough, Mollie was his first scum read, and that seems to be mainly because of the fact that she rl'd him Day 1. maybe he was trying to eliminate her quickly b4 she started looking deeply at him.

Hm, that's not unlikely at all, getting awfully defensive while getting RLed as scum.

Also, I meant "lynch WW", not "lynch Mafia" at the end of my previous post, obviously.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Egan G. wrote:Dr A lynched sullivan, seems like a weird bus while ryou didnt say anything about him. iirc he got subbed out but the old user could have just not posted

I think I'm the second person who subbed on this account.

Katrina K. wrote:I don't know I would think that WW woulda come on right after his kill to see what he hit cuz aj woulda notified WW that the thread was updated. Plus he'd need to know who died in order to know who to kill so he would have logged on right b4 his kill to see hip potential targets. A lot can happen within 4 hours.

On the other hand why would E gang as WW want to NK Mollie, his main aggressor (note this is going into WIFOM) Like that would make him even more suspicious imo. So are we to assume that Mollie was killed in an attempt to frame e gang, or to relieve pressure on e gang?

Well, firstly, he could have been aiming for the Mafia (I wrote a post why this was beneficial for WW). And secondly, he could have attempted to get rid of the main accuser while creating a WIFOM NK analysis.

Egan, Dr. A, I would really like to get read lists from you, considering that we have ~12 hours until the deadline.

Also, from my PoV WW is either Egan or Dr. A. and since I dismissed the notion of Dr. A. being WW/I got a Mafia read on him, well, Egan is an obvious call for me. Also, Melanie being his main aggressor makes it more unlikely that Egan is Mafia.

I want to either lynch Egan or NL today and since deadline is happening soonish, I will vote in a couple of hours if this day continues to be fruitless.

By lynching we have 1/9 = 3/27 chance to win (1/3 to lynch WW*1/3 to lynch Mafia)
By NL we have 4/27 chance to win [1/3 for WW to kill Mafia*(2/3*1/2 to lynch Mafia if Katrina wasn't Mafia + 1/3*1/3 to lynch Mafia if Katrina was Mafia)]

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Actually, I've just realised technically it isn't PLyLo, it's MyLo PLyLo. What I mean by that is that there is a scenario where Town wins by NLing.

Since Mafia wins at 1v1v1, WW would have to NK a Mafia if NL were to happen, leading to 2v1 LyLo with WW.

Possible advantage? If WW doesn't have a Mafia read on Katrina, he'll spare her, which will grant us one confirmed person at LyLo.

Disavantages? Well, obviously leaving it at the hands of the Werewolf to find the Mafia - it's 33 1/3% mathematically, which is the same as finding the Werewolf today.

I'm not trying to push a NL today, I'm just saying it's a possible out of the box scenario to go with.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

I don't like the fact that the deadline is in 1 1/2 a day. I don't like it one bit. Extend it for a few days, given the fact it's PLyLo?

Before I proceed to the read list, I would like to list a possible "What scum is trying to accomplish today" scenario list:
1) WW - wins if Mafia is lynched, is at 50/50 at night if Town is lynched. Will try to lynch Mafia but should be fine with with lynching Town too, unless he has no reads on Mafia whatsoever.
2) Mafia - Here it gets a bit trickier:
- If WW is lynched, it's 2v1 and Mafia has to get a Townie lynched. The upside of this situation for them is that Mafia will be able to influence the next day. The downside is that if Mafia is under heavy suspicion (and at this moment, especially after everyone posts their read lists), it will be hard for them to turn the tables.
- If Town is lynched, Mafia wins if WW NKs a Townie. While it leaves everything in the hands of the WW, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that Mafia will go for this plan, especially if who Mafia believes to be WW will have a poor read.

This is all based on assumptions and predictions but both Mafia and WW can win if they get each other lynched or Town lynched. We cannot assume Mafia will try to WWhunt and we cannot assume WW will try to push a lynch on Mafia.

Reads:

Ryou N. - is me, Vanilla Townie.

Dr. Akihabara - Glad to see you actually recalled you buddying with Dr. Yung day one. I agree with Katrina's earlier posts on how bussing Day 1 as Werewolf is highly unlikely. He did post a semi-long post 9 minutes after the night kill but I wouldn't go after him just for that. What he gave as an explanation is not unlikely at all. NOT WEREWOLF, likely Mafia.

Katrina K. - Confirmed Not Werewolf. Uses correct logic, is active. Disagreed about my interpretation of NK yesterday but it wasn't particularly out of place and I can see someone disagreesing with my theory. Mostly bad reads but they weren't pulled out of thin air (and my strongest read since I subbed flipped Town too). TOWN.

Egan G. - I posted earlier about his scumminess. Also, Werewolf because Katrina was cleared and Dr. A is very unlikely suspect for it.

To summarise:
TOWN - Katrina K. and myself
WEREWOLF - Egan G.
MAFIA - Dr. A

Unlynch Egan G.

I'll go with your suggestion for now, Katrina, but unless we get an extension, I WILL relynch Egan ~24 hours from now if the game goes nowhere.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

I apologise for not having posted lately but it was a result of some IRL stuff and I probably wouldn't have unlynched Ralph anyway.

Okay, so the two possible victory scenarios are lynch WW and then lynch Mafia or NL, have WW kill Mafia, and then lynch WW. And we all know the latter one is stupid.

WW candidates are Egan, Dr. A, and myself since Katrina was cleared by the Seer.

The problem for me is that Katrina made quite a compelling argument about how Egan might be Mafia... but that would make Dr. A the Werewolf which just doesn't feel right since he participated in lynching Sullivan and his vote did matter. Bussing Day 1 as a Werewolf in this theme... it is possible and I have seen/taken part in some extreme deep cover bussing but it's so unlikely that I consider this as a possibility, not as something to go by.

From my point of view eliminating Dr. A as WW makes Egan the only candidate left. He is scummy but he is much more Mafia-ish than wolfish... Still, between the two of them, Egan is a more likely candidate.

I realise that would make me the second candidate since Dr. A is unlikely to be a Werewolf. And I realise that the fact I'm the second sub on this account makes reading more difficult. If you find anything I wrote suspicious or scummy, don't hesitate to ask.

Katrina K. wrote:Also NO ONE lynch. not until we have thought this through

Quickhammer by WW would only happen with 2 votes on Town/Mafia so 1 vote is not dangerous and I do want to put on the plurality early.

Lynch Egan G.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Katrina K. wrote:
I'll do an in-depth analysis/reads list soon... I'm still really tired (the beach can really drain your energy) and i think i still have sand in places where the sun don't shine. Can someone help me clean that? Fluffy-kun?! I need you to come out and lick the sand out from there please. Let me see your face too.

Ewww? I'm seriously considering lynching you just for this.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Katrina K. wrote:

Ryou N. wrote:Oh, true, this particular bit of information slipped my mind. Have I mentioned I hate subbing into a game? I keep forgetting stuff...

And since I don't see you as Mafia, Unlynch Katrina K.

Lynch Ralph I.

Just out of curiosity, why don't you see me as mafia? If you find me scummy, and I'm confirmed not WW, then your read on me would be mafia because that's the only scum party left... unless you are accounting for someone else being mafia. I just find it really interesting how quickly he flipped from a read of me being WW to me being definitely town. That may have been a scum slip, just saying. What do the rest of you guys think?

My read on you was possible WW, not Mafia, and that was because the early game stuff slipped my memory. Now that I look back and reread it, you did defend both Mafia a bit... But I have a stronger feeling toward Ralph and Egan than I have towards you.

I unlynched you because I want to avoid tunnelling on you while the evidence wasn't particularly strong and certainly weaker than with my other reads.

Game 18: Jungle Republic

Oh, true, this particular bit of information slipped my mind. Have I mentioned I hate subbing into a game? I keep forgetting stuff...

And since I don't see you as Mafia, Unlynch Katrina K.

Lynch Ralph I.