Game 18: Jungle Republic

Ryou N. wrote:I apologise for not having posted lately but it was a result of some IRL stuff and I probably wouldn't have unlynched Ralph anyway.

Okay, so the two possible victory scenarios are lynch WW and then lynch Mafia or NL, have WW kill Mafia, and then lynch WW. And we all know the latter one is stupid.

WW candidates are Egan, Dr. A, and myself since Katrina was cleared by the Seer.

The problem for me is that Katrina made quite a compelling argument about how Egan might be Mafia... but that would make Dr. A the Werewolf which just doesn't feel right since he participated in lynching Sullivan and his vote did matter. Bussing Day 1 as a Werewolf in this theme... it is possible and I have seen/taken part in some extreme deep cover bussing but it's so unlikely that I consider this as a possibility, not as something to go by.

From my point of view eliminating Dr. A as WW makes Egan the only candidate left. He is scummy but he is much more Mafia-ish than wolfish... Still, between the two of them, Egan is a more likely candidate.

I realise that would make me the second candidate since Dr. A is unlikely to be a Werewolf. And I realise that the fact I'm the second sub on this account makes reading more difficult. If you find anything I wrote suspicious or scummy, don't hesitate to ask.

Katrina K. wrote:Also NO ONE lynch. not until we have thought this through

Quickhammer by WW would only happen with 2 votes on Town/Mafia so 1 vote is not dangerous and I do want to put on the plurality early.

Lynch Egan G.

See its not a worry of quick hammer I have, its the worry of the inability to overturn plurality at the end of the day... Or is Plurality off because its pLylo.

My main point about Dr. A is that he came on so quickly after new day started, which I find really weird considering the night was only an hour and a half long as opposed to the standard 2 days that has been going on this whole while. That creates the grounds for suspicion for me. Imma scroll through his actions later.

Also no worries about not posting since the start of the new day because of the short as hell day. I logged on to see if Ralph was Mafia or WW, and didn't expect the day to have started. I highly doubt its a coincidence that Dr. A logged on RIGHT as aj got the kill. And then take into account how long his post was, and how long it would have taken him to read the flips and calculate the town-scum ratio. It's very odd. He posted not even 10 minutes later.

And then the other succumbing is the fact that he's like "I have no reads because I was inactive." It's very Kuroyo like. She was lurking and kept asking town to catch her up, when the posts were there for her to read. Likewise, he had the time to read the previous posts and reformulate reads... Yet he chose to post rather blindly without any reads of his own. It's like he doesn't care how the lynch goes as long as it isn't on him... Sounds familiar?

I want reads lists right now. WITH REASONING. COMPREHENSIVE. do not lynch anyone. Now is not the time for lynching and i do suggest that you pull your lynch on e gang back for now until we figure this out.

Votecount 5.1
******************************
Egan G.(1)- Ryou N.
Katrina K.(0)-
Dr. Akihabara(0)-
Ryou N.(0)-
Not Voting(3)- Egan G., Dr. Akihabara, Katrina K.
******************************
There are 4 alive so it takes 3 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Friday the 11th at 9pm EDT.
If the deadline was now, Egan G. would be lynched.

Katrina K. wrote:

Dr. Akihabara wrote:Classes suck.

I don't see how our activity matters. I just know that I have reasons (which I can't give, as they would give away who I am) for being so... eager to post. Mostly because AJ loves to taunt me and such, but there's more. Blah, Blah. I have reasons.

tl;dr for that paragraph, I'm not scum because I was eager to postlol. Also, I know that I've pulled wifom like that in some games, so I made sure to put it out there. Information is helpful.

(Also those class hours suck.)

I don't have many reads now, since I've been very MIA.

No shit those hours suck.

You don't see how our activity matters? Have you forgotten what happened to Dominick? That hammer happened BECAUSE of inactivity.

I get that people can be eager to post. Hell I am too at times, but I hardly call your severe lack of posts eager. If you were eager to post, you woulda posted as often as me or ephraim or Dr. Yung. I just exceeded Dr. Yung's post count and he was only alive for 1 day phase.

And then there's the issue of the promises of activity, and reads, that are never fulfilled.

Literally all of your posts after Day 2 (which only had 2-3 posts might i add) until now were the 1st post of the day. All early. And had very little content besides i'll catch up, and filler about aj joking around with you.

And then lets tie in the fact that you posted RIGHT after that short night. That would be a very unlucky coincidence if it was.

Oh and eagerness to post is not an indicator of townies, because I have seen people who are eager to post regardless of what role they are. Hell, I classify myself as one of those types of people. I enjoy creating counter arguments from the slight flaws in logic (if it wasn't evident by... all of this post and  a good chunk of my previous posts) Sure they might be misguided, but they don't necessarily indicate I am scum or town, just by how often I post. When it boil down to it, a scums eagerness to post is based off of how confident they are in their skills, and even the situation they are in.

tl;dr: we can not discredit you from being scum just because of how often you post

I didn't say to discredit me. I know I've been inactive, I've been busy, and I really have nothing to offer. I'm eager to see the NK, but then it comes to a blank as to what I want to post.

Also, I leave this on as another tab. I have been reading, albeit very slowly.

Do you really think I'd give myself away this much as scum by lurking and going inactive? Of course it draws attention to me. Also, if I am scum, I'm more likely to be mafia. Judging by the buddying with Dr. Yung and the lynch on Sullivan day 1? Yes, I am 100% WW.

The best part of this is that you guys think I'm scummy for being on so quickly, but as soon as you all find out who I am, you'll be like, "OHHHHH that's why s/he was on so quickly." I literally always talk to AJ, I have reasons people. As for reads, I'll try. No promises seeing to how I have a meeting in less than an hour.

OK, seriously AJ. There shouldn't be a deadline because its PLYLO. We need time to determine who is scum and we need a majority decision imo

Look I'm not automatically calling you Werewolf. It could just be a coincidence, like I said. We don't think of you as scummy for just that one reason. MY last post basically summed up why you are scummy.

I don't like the fact that the deadline is in 1 1/2 a day. I don't like it one bit. Extend it for a few days, given the fact it's PLyLo?

Before I proceed to the read list, I would like to list a possible "What scum is trying to accomplish today" scenario list:
1) WW - wins if Mafia is lynched, is at 50/50 at night if Town is lynched. Will try to lynch Mafia but should be fine with with lynching Town too, unless he has no reads on Mafia whatsoever.
2) Mafia - Here it gets a bit trickier:
- If WW is lynched, it's 2v1 and Mafia has to get a Townie lynched. The upside of this situation for them is that Mafia will be able to influence the next day. The downside is that if Mafia is under heavy suspicion (and at this moment, especially after everyone posts their read lists), it will be hard for them to turn the tables.
- If Town is lynched, Mafia wins if WW NKs a Townie. While it leaves everything in the hands of the WW, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that Mafia will go for this plan, especially if who Mafia believes to be WW will have a poor read.

This is all based on assumptions and predictions but both Mafia and WW can win if they get each other lynched or Town lynched. We cannot assume Mafia will try to WWhunt and we cannot assume WW will try to push a lynch on Mafia.

Reads:

Ryou N. - is me, Vanilla Townie.

Dr. Akihabara - Glad to see you actually recalled you buddying with Dr. Yung day one. I agree with Katrina's earlier posts on how bussing Day 1 as Werewolf is highly unlikely. He did post a semi-long post 9 minutes after the night kill but I wouldn't go after him just for that. What he gave as an explanation is not unlikely at all. NOT WEREWOLF, likely Mafia.

Katrina K. - Confirmed Not Werewolf. Uses correct logic, is active. Disagreed about my interpretation of NK yesterday but it wasn't particularly out of place and I can see someone disagreesing with my theory. Mostly bad reads but they weren't pulled out of thin air (and my strongest read since I subbed flipped Town too). TOWN.

Egan G. - I posted earlier about his scumminess. Also, Werewolf because Katrina was cleared and Dr. A is very unlikely suspect for it.

To summarise:
TOWN - Katrina K. and myself
WEREWOLF - Egan G.
MAFIA - Dr. A

Unlynch Egan G.

I'll go with your suggestion for now, Katrina, but unless we get an extension, I WILL relynch Egan ~24 hours from now if the game goes nowhere.

No extensions.

Actually, I've just realised technically it isn't PLyLo, it's MyLo PLyLo. What I mean by that is that there is a scenario where Town wins by NLing.

Since Mafia wins at 1v1v1, WW would have to NK a Mafia if NL were to happen, leading to 2v1 LyLo with WW.

Possible advantage? If WW doesn't have a Mafia read on Katrina, he'll spare her, which will grant us one confirmed person at LyLo.

Disavantages? Well, obviously leaving it at the hands of the Werewolf to find the Mafia - it's 33 1/3% mathematically, which is the same as finding the Werewolf today.

I'm not trying to push a NL today, I'm just saying it's a possible out of the box scenario to go with.

I had the same thought, but leaving it to one person. Is it a better or a worse idea? I mean, less quarreling, but still. I think 4 minds put together is better than just 1.

Dr. Akihabara wrote:My avatar creeps me out, too.

Lynch Melanie B.

Don't want any inactives.

Look at his random lynch from Day 1. It's actually quite interesting when you really think about it. I mean Melanie B was the mafia. Yet he lynched her early on trying to avoid inactivity. Now whether this is coincidence or not, I'm not sure. I mean it could be mafia doing a bus. Maybe he was trying to get activity out of his mafia buddy because maybe she was inactive in their pregame chat or something. I mean his reasoning for that lynch seemed a little off considering we had barely started the game... and its not like tagging someone in the anon games is going to make them active. It doesn't send an email notification. But it may have been coincidence considering Melanie didn't talk so much during the pregame phase and hadn't talked since the game had started a little bit beforehand. And almost immediately after she began posting, he retracted that lynch and pushed on Sullivan.

He was the first to vote Sullivan and he stayed active. The fact that Dr. A stayed on him is the main grounds of why I have cause for doubt that Dr. A is WW.

To be honest, I can see him as mafia too. Also while E gang has been relatively consistent activity and content wise (with a slight increase lately) Dr. A has devolved in his activity, which is significant because he's lost both his partners but also lost one of his two major threats. Plus the mutual support of Mel B. and Dr. Yung. I'm trying tp figure out what this all means. (plus i have class till 9 rip)

i'll try to make a real post tonight, i have some homework that i need to get done before tomorrow... if i dont, expect one early tomorrow morning

Votecount 5.2
******************************
Egan G.(0)-
Katrina K.(0)-
Dr. Akihabara(0)-
Ryou N.(0)-
Not Voting(4)- Egan G., Dr. Akihabara, Katrina K., Ryou N.
******************************
There are 4 alive so it takes 3 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Friday the 11th at 9pm EDT.
If the deadline was now, Egan G. would be lynched.

Dr A lynched sullivan, seems like a weird bus while ryou didnt say anything about him. iirc he got subbed out but the old user could have just not posted

I don't know I would think that WW woulda come on right after his kill to see what he hit cuz aj woulda notified WW that the thread was updated. Plus he'd need to know who died in order to know who to kill so he would have logged on right b4 his kill to see hip potential targets. A lot can happen within 4 hours.

On the other hand why would E gang as WW want to NK Mollie, his main aggressor (note this is going into WIFOM) Like that would make him even more suspicious imo. So are we to assume that Mollie was killed in an attempt to frame e gang, or to relieve pressure on e gang?

Egan G. wrote:h..hi

soome reads

sullivan - only really made 1 post that matters, decent ideas but kinda inactive - null (doesn't want to support or go against him?)
mel b - town for sure, makes really good posts. (decent reasoning)
dr yung - town read, people may see the aggression as scum but i dont
ralph - kinda inactive - made 1 good post, slightly town read
katrina - not even 100% sure what you are doing. Seems like a stupid villy
ryou - all filler posts, id advice everyone to look at his posts to see what a true filler post looks like - slight scum
captain a - tbh i get you and dr a confused (curse you aj!), filler posts, claimed seer, not sure what exactly you are doing - town read for weirdness
dominik - claimed seer, seems pretty bad player, null read
ephraim - makes posts with pretty obvious info, could be town trying to help, could be mafia trying to pass as town - null
mollie - 1 ok post, others are filler, slight scum read
dr a - easy town read

top 3 of who should post: mollie, sullivan, ryou,

this is the first full reads list he posted. Moat people at the time felt like it was a little off. Wishy-washy. He supported both of the dead mafia (although lets face it he supported almost everyone, and EVERYONE had a town read on Mel B. so ib reality it was more of a 1/9 chance plus that all around support doesn't hurt him.)

Interestingly enough, Mollie was his first scum read, and that seems to be mainly because of the fact that she rl'd him Day 1. maybe he was trying to eliminate her quickly b4 she started looking deeply at him.

Egan G. wrote:Dr A lynched sullivan, seems like a weird bus while ryou didnt say anything about him. iirc he got subbed out but the old user could have just not posted

I think I'm the second person who subbed on this account.

Katrina K. wrote:I don't know I would think that WW woulda come on right after his kill to see what he hit cuz aj woulda notified WW that the thread was updated. Plus he'd need to know who died in order to know who to kill so he would have logged on right b4 his kill to see hip potential targets. A lot can happen within 4 hours.

On the other hand why would E gang as WW want to NK Mollie, his main aggressor (note this is going into WIFOM) Like that would make him even more suspicious imo. So are we to assume that Mollie was killed in an attempt to frame e gang, or to relieve pressure on e gang?

Well, firstly, he could have been aiming for the Mafia (I wrote a post why this was beneficial for WW). And secondly, he could have attempted to get rid of the main accuser while creating a WIFOM NK analysis.

Egan, Dr. A, I would really like to get read lists from you, considering that we have ~12 hours until the deadline.

Also, from my PoV WW is either Egan or Dr. A. and since I dismissed the notion of Dr. A. being WW/I got a Mafia read on him, well, Egan is an obvious call for me. Also, Melanie being his main aggressor makes it more unlikely that Egan is Mafia.

I want to either lynch Egan or NL today and since deadline is happening soonish, I will vote in a couple of hours if this day continues to be fruitless.

By lynching we have 1/9 = 3/27 chance to win (1/3 to lynch WW*1/3 to lynch Mafia)
By NL we have 4/27 chance to win [1/3 for WW to kill Mafia*(2/3*1/2 to lynch Mafia if Katrina wasn't Mafia + 1/3*1/3 to lynch Mafia if Katrina was Mafia)]

Katrina K. wrote:

Egan G. wrote:h..hi

soome reads

sullivan - only really made 1 post that matters, decent ideas but kinda inactive - null (doesn't want to support or go against him?)
mel b - town for sure, makes really good posts. (decent reasoning)
dr yung - town read, people may see the aggression as scum but i dont
ralph - kinda inactive - made 1 good post, slightly town read
katrina - not even 100% sure what you are doing. Seems like a stupid villy
ryou - all filler posts, id advice everyone to look at his posts to see what a true filler post looks like - slight scum
captain a - tbh i get you and dr a confused (curse you aj!), filler posts, claimed seer, not sure what exactly you are doing - town read for weirdness  
dominik - claimed seer, seems pretty bad player, null read
ephraim - makes posts with pretty obvious info, could be town trying to help, could be mafia trying to pass as town - null
mollie - 1 ok post, others are filler, slight scum read
dr a - easy town read

top 3 of who should post: mollie, sullivan, ryou,

this is the first full reads list he posted. Moat people at the time felt like it was a little off. Wishy-washy. He supported both of the dead mafia (although lets face it he supported almost everyone, and EVERYONE had a town read on Mel B. so ib reality it was more of a 1/9 chance plus that all around support doesn't hurt him.)

Interestingly enough, Mollie was his first scum read, and that seems to be mainly because of the fact that she rl'd him Day 1. maybe he was trying to eliminate her quickly b4 she started looking deeply at him.

Hm, that's not unlikely at all, getting awfully defensive while getting RLed as scum.

Also, I meant "lynch WW", not "lynch Mafia" at the end of my previous post, obviously.

Ryou N. wrote:

Egan G. wrote:Dr A lynched sullivan, seems like a weird bus while ryou didnt say anything about him. iirc he got subbed out but the old user could have just not posted

I think I'm the second person who subbed on this account.

Katrina K. wrote:I don't know I would think that WW woulda come on right after his kill to see what he hit cuz aj woulda notified WW that the thread was updated. Plus he'd need to know who died in order to know who to kill so he would have logged on right b4 his kill to see hip potential targets. A lot can happen within 4 hours.

On the other hand why would E gang as WW want to NK Mollie, his main aggressor (note this is going into WIFOM) Like that would make him even more suspicious imo. So are we to assume that Mollie was killed in an attempt to frame e gang, or to relieve pressure on e gang?

Well, firstly, he could have been aiming for the Mafia (I wrote a post why this was beneficial for WW). And secondly, he could have attempted to get rid of the main accuser while creating a WIFOM NK analysis.

Egan, Dr. A, I would really like to get read lists from you, considering that we have ~12 hours until the deadline.

Also, from my PoV WW is either Egan or Dr. A. and since I dismissed the notion of Dr. A. being WW/I got a Mafia read on him, well, Egan is an obvious call for me. Also, Melanie being his main aggressor makes it more unlikely that Egan is Mafia.

I want to either lynch Egan or NL today and since deadline is happening soonish, I will vote in a couple of hours if this day continues to be fruitless.

By lynching we have 1/9 = 3/27 chance to win (1/3 to lynch WW*1/3 to lynch Mafia)
By NL we have 4/27 chance to win [1/3 for WW to kill Mafia*(2/3*1/2 to lynch Mafia if Katrina wasn't Mafia + 1/3*1/3 to lynch WW* if Katrina was Mafia)]

Thats a big assumption that I would be killed by WW just saying. Also I don't feel comfortable leaving this game into WWs hands since WW has a 1/3 chance of killing mafia which has a 2/3 chance of winning. Also Melanie wasn't his main aggressor, that was Mollie. Oh Im gonna go check on something maybe Melanie pushed on him.... but then again even if that was the case we couldn't rule out bus.

Now this may (not) surprise you, but I think I have a rough idea of who the WW is. And although I have made a compelling case as to why he is mafia, after some more examination and discussion (as well as looking at Game 17 and some of the opens that are on the site with the rules and stuff), I'm starting to see Egan as WW. I'm positive he's scum. E gang if you are town provide your reads ASAP and give reasoning behind your reads. It could save you and help us find the WW and mafia.

Egan G. wrote:Dr A lynched sullivan, seems like a weird bus while ryou didnt say anything about him. iirc he got subbed out but the old user could have just not posted

cuz this totally is a real post

Katrina K. wrote:Thats a big assumption that I would be killed by WW just saying. Also I don't feel comfortable leaving this game into WWs hands since WW has a 1/3 chance of killing mafia which has a 2/3 chance of winning. Also Melanie wasn't his main aggressor, that was Mollie. Oh Im gonna go check on something maybe Melanie pushed on him.... but then again even if that was the case we couldn't rule out bus.

I mixed up the names, disregard what I said about that. This is the result of me subbing late in the game and replying too fast.

Well WW has 1/3 of killing Mafia and we have 1/3 chance of lynching WW. The reason I would think about NLing is because I can't shake off the feeling that Dr. A MIGHT be the WW after all. By NLing we'd pit WW against the Mafia which would be make our situation at LyLo much more comfortable. But then again, I'd rather lose by mislynching than by being correct about WW and WW making an incorrect NK.

Katrina K. wrote:Now this may (not) surprise you, but I think I have a rough idea of who the WW is. And although I have made a compelling case as to why he is mafia, after some more examination and discussion (as well as looking at Game 17 and some of the opens that are on the site with the rules and stuff), I'm starting to see Egan as WW. I'm positive he's scum. E gang if you are town provide your reads ASAP and give reasoning behind your reads. It could save you and help us find the WW and mafia.

Not surprised at all. You were the one who made a strong case why Dr. A probably isn't WW so logical follow-up to that would be FoSing Egan or me as a WW.

I don't like how Egan and Dr. A didn't do much this day, with Dr. A being mostly offline after his initial post and Egan making a post of... questionable quality.

Deadline is in what, 6 and a half hours? I'll try to look at the forum every so often. If the situation doesn't change tremendously, I'm fine with going through with lynch on Egan.

if i was ww, i would have killed katrina (since she is unlynchable today) or one of the others. There is no reason for me to kill mollie since its like stapling a sign to my head saying im ww.

interesting that ryou will leave the game in the hands of ww. Percentage wise, that would be the smart thing but mafia isnt a game about percents, its about scum hunting which should alter that.

Reads:

Dr A - started off fairly active and moved into the shadows. Is he hiding something? Is he afraid to post after how bad sullivan did? Was he just letting mel b do the work? he is gone on the day we need him the most or is he just hiding and hoping i get lynched.

Ryou - wasnt around for lynching sullivan at all. Barely gave a read at all on Mel B and didnt post any reads with dr w/e his name. Leaving the game up to ww is pretty scummy especially if he is ww!

katrina - not ww unless dominik is a moron. I kinda see her as possible mafia but not as scummy as ryou or dr a.

Egan G. wrote:if i was ww, i would have killed katrina (since she is unlynchable today) or one of the others. There is no reason for me to kill mollie since its like stapling a sign to my head saying im ww.

interesting that ryou will leave the game in the hands of ww. Percentage wise, that would be the smart thing but mafia isnt a game about percents, its about scum hunting which should alter that.

Reads:

Dr A - started off fairly active and moved into the shadows. Is he hiding something? Is he afraid to post after how bad sullivan did? Was he just letting mel b do the work? he is gone on the day we need him the most or is he just hiding and hoping i get lynched.

Ryou - wasnt around for lynching sullivan at all. Barely gave a read at all on Mel B and didnt post any reads with dr w/e his name. Leaving the game up to ww is pretty scummy especially if he is ww!

katrina - not ww unless dominik is a moron. I kinda see her as possible mafia but not as scummy as ryou or dr a.

I'm so glad you stealth OMGUSed me because now I can point out your flawed logic.

1. NK is WIFOM at best, you can't say "I wouldn't have killed X" to clear yourself.

2. I don't want to leave the game in the hands of WW, you either failed at comprehending my posts or you're trying to pull off a cheap manipulation. If you had read my last post, you'd see that I proposed lynching you, not NLing.

3. "leaving the game in the hands of ww"? Hardly. It would actually tie up WW's hands because they'd have to go for their Mafia read while with lynching they can safely push for Town. NL would benefit both Mafia and Town (Mafia more than Town, yes) AT THE EXPENSE of the WW. Let me put up the quote again.

Egan G. wrote: Leaving the game up to ww is pretty scummy especially if he is ww!

NLing benefits Mafia a lot, hurts WW a lot, and benefits Town a bit mathematically while taking decision out of Town's hands. The last part is exactly why I treated it as a second scenario the whole time, not the primary course of action.

So, you just said I'm likely to be a WW because I came up with a plan which hurts the WW badly? Seems like you really wanted to find an argument against me but failed horribly at logic while doing so.

4. You accuse Dr. A of lurking and not posting when needed? YOU?

Egan G. wrote:Ryou - wasnt around for lynching sullivan at all.

5. You realise I have subbed in recently and the people who used this account earlier were lurking the whole time, don't' you?

Egan G. wrote:and didnt post any reads with dr w/e his name.

6. Oh, but I did. I made at least 2-3 posts where I pondered about Dr. A, arriving at the conclusion he's scummy but unlikely to be a WW. He was also the center of my last read list post. And if you mean Dr. Yung, refer to statement no.5.

P.S.

Ryou N. wrote:NLing benefits Mafia a lot, hurts WW a lot, and benefits Town a bit mathematically while taking decision out of Town's hands.

"NLing benefits Mafia a lot" is of course a mathematical benefit and relies on the assumption that WW doesn't have a good Mafia read. But I am not going to deny the fact that Mafia might be the primary beneficient of the NL, with Town being the secondary one.

BUT, and I will repeat this here because I consider it the most important part of my post, this plan hurts WW badly. It actually restricts WW's movepool, and it certainly doesn't "leave the game in their hands".

The fact that you based your WW read on me on my plan, which hurts the WW, shows very well that you wanted to redirect attention towards me from yourself since this reasoning doesn't make any sense at all.

And this is why I love manipulating people into posting their reads lists. That reads list just confirmed Egan as scum to me. (seriously it was so obvious what I was trying to pull there) Plus that paranoia is interesting as well. Literally every person on that list is scum read... and it also looks off (specifically in the case of Dr. A) Your calling ryou out on not being part of the Sullivan lynch, but you are very much a hypocrite because you didn't take part in it either. The only people who took part in that was me, Dr. A, and Dr. Y. Thank you for the reads, WW. They can at least help us find the mafia. I'll place my lynch later. Low battery