Re: Game 6: Black Flag Nightless

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 6:21 am

Satchel N. wrote:
Jeanette C. wrote:Satchel, is there anybody that leans scum to you? In particular, you mentioned all the major voices except Areal, who I'm most interested to see your read for. What is your thought about Areal immediately defending you?

Duplica's defensiveness actually strikes me as weird because at that point Areal was not even threatening or trying to clean herself - so there was no need to switch Duplica's vote away from Areal. Duplica, why is Bailey so attractive to you?
No.

I don't know, defending others is a perfectly normal thing to do.

Satchel, on page six, came on in the beginning, did several posts like the above, and left. The posts were quotes from someone that he thought signified something and a sentence telling whether or not he thought the person was scum. I believe that he figured it was day one, and that he didn't need extensive leads and evaluations yet, as we didn't have many leads anyway. He thought the conversation wouldn't pick up until the next day, and that day one isn't important. This explains his continued absence. I think he is town, despite Jeanette's feelings about him.

by **ajhockeystar** Tue May 06, 2014 7:44 am

The old Yuriko P. has been subbed out. A new user is now using the account.

by Duplica W. Tue May 06, 2014 10:34 am

Jeanette, I have to be honest here. Lynching scum randomly, even if its by chance, doesn't get one much towncred.

I would type more, but I need to sleep. (I overslept today >.>)

by Chaz R. Tue May 06, 2014 11:16 am

Well actually I would like to add on to that analysis by revealing my plan, that has kept everyone in suspense.

First I will say what my plan was, it was.....to not have a plan! Now you guys are thinking, does Chaz need help from a doctor or something? But I will explain what my goal was.

1.) Well if I did REALLY have a plan, I wouldnt be saying it out loud. But the reason I did say it out loud was to let the mafia know I have a plan. This will make mafia worried and try to inhibit my plan. So instead of me looking for mafia, I let mafia come to me. You can also tell this because town will not mind the plan until the result leads to me being scum, only mafia will want to make me look scum before I even mention the plan, coz remember I never mentioned what it was.

So now you guys ask me, did the plan work? Of course it did! Did you not realise how Areal kept mentioning that she would lynvh me if she had to lynch someone? Or when she kept mentioning how my plan had a "red flag" that apparently makes me scum? I am sorry but this is a great indicator that Areal is scared of my "plan"

So what do you think about this?

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 2:56 pm

I do think that that was a very shady thing to do. Having a "plan", constantly mentioning it, but not revealing it is pretty odd at the least. I really didn't think anyone was scum yesterday, and as you can see by Bailey's alignment, mafia is not in very high concentrations when it comes to active users. Of the active users, this and Duplica's confusion (that has apparently been cleared up) are the only "red flags" that have come up. Therefore, Chaz was the only person whom I would have lynched.

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 2:58 pm

BTW, welcome to the game, Yuriko! If you want a synopsis of the game so far, please don't hesitate to ask. The last twelve pages can be summed up pretty easily.

by Jeanette C. Tue May 06, 2014 3:59 pm

I mean, I guess it would be possible that I could be Mafia and lay a vote on my scum partner and never take it back (despite others pushing not to lynch), but considering the setup of this game I think it's unlikely. We just need to lynch two Mafia total, so even if I was Mafia and the Bailey lynch "made me look like town", it wouldn't help the third scum member in any way. So it would be a reckless risk to only benefit one scum member and leave the other just as open as they were before.

So yes, lynching randomly does not get towncred. However, you can look at the vote from the other perspective - does it really make sense for Mafia to make this lynch if they had known that Bailey was Mafia?

by Chaz R. Tue May 06, 2014 4:01 pm

Yes, ik it was shady. But unlike everyone else, only YOU said that the plan and I was scum. The rest didnt say much because they know that if my plan was scummy, then they lynch me and mafia loses (if they assumed I am mafia) and if my plan worked for town, then go town! So really, if I was mafia, I wasnt and still not in any position to be scummy.

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 4:13 pm

Jeanette and Chaz, I do not believe either of you are mafia anymore. I have slung countless arguments at Jeanette, and she has been able to logically counter them. Chaz has executed a brilliant plan to nab the mafia, and because of that he does not seem scummy anymore.

Chaz, your plan was brilliant, however there was an unforeseen problem during execution: I saw you as scummy. The plan could have worked beautifully, but I messed it up by falling into the trap, for I am a villy. I do apologize for that and for my trail of scum that I am leaving, but I assure you I am not the mafia.

by Jeanette C. Tue May 06, 2014 4:47 pm

Hey Yuriko, feel free to join us! We won't bite!

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 7:47 pm

Ok, now that everyone thinks I'm scum, back to player analysis.

Duplica W. wrote:CHAD Bot would be pleased if Chaz was CHAD.

...
...

Okay, back to topic, it would be nice for a day when I can come back here and talk a lot more, you guys exhausted a lot.

@Jeanette being possible scum
I'll be honest, I have thought of her being scum too, but it is a little crazy to think that a person who gathers town would be scum. However, it is still possible for a scum to be controlling the town. The scum could try and improve his mafia friends conditions by "rejecting" some scum reads if you know what I mean, but in this mafia setup I think if we successfully catch the other 2 mafia then it would be fine, won't it?

I'm on phone right now and I have to check other pages, I'll be writing another post.

Duplica has been sporadic and unclear so far. She seems to be making honest opinions, but is always "on my phone" or "tired", so it's difficult tell whether she's mafia or scum.

Duplica W. wrote:Basically, what I was assuming is that Bailey was mafia and that I'm giving mafia a dilemma on whether to let their buddy get lynched or prevent it.

Anyway, so far it doesn't seem any real thing is happening.

Unvote: Bailey

That brings us down to her temporary lynch on Bailey. She had Areal (me) lynched in the beginning, apparently to start conversation.

Duplica W. wrote:Vote: Areal I.

Lets get the talk started. We don't have many people talking, and we almost have 1/5 of Day 1 over. Guys, discuss?

She then decided to lynch Bailey, seemingly for the same reason. She did almost the same thing with both of us: lynch to spur conversation and then unlynch when the mafia hasn't reacted and everyone is suspicious of her. Since she did the same thing with me as with Bailey, and since I'm not the mafia, I don't think she was going for towncred on her suspicion of Bailey or trying to avoid lynching her buddy by unlynching; she obviously didn't do that with me. However, there was one suspicious post:

Duplica W. wrote:
Lynch Bailey

Assuming someone is mafia, if their team doesn't want one of their mafia to be lynched, they will have to vote 1 more than the vote on their friend count on someone else. Of course, after reading my post the mafia might just let Bailey (if he is mafia) die, but that would be a disadvantage. Also Bailey, when you come online, what do you think of the lynches?

This post made it seem like there was pretty good evidence put forth saying that Bailey was mafia, when there wasn't. Was it possible that she already knew that Bailey was mafia? To me it is hard to tell. I will post more about it in a bit.

by Mason A. Tue May 06, 2014 7:51 pm

Jeanette C. wrote:
Areal (and Mason actually), could you explain why you guys see Satchel as town? Just because he has responded and given out his reads? If anything, every player should have reads, scum or not. I still see him leaning scum for his lack of explanation in every single one of his reads/posts - it is as if he is just posting the reads to answer our questions without trying to convince us at all.

First, i'd like to say that I have several pages of text to catch up on, so please give me a bit in case I mention things that have already been said DX

Regarding this post, I was leaning towards Satchel being town simply for contributing and doing what I see as slight (although weak) reasoning for his reads. I'm not 100% for Satchel being town, but I am certainly leaning towards that being true.

Next, my character is a girl? well... that's awkward.

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 8:02 pm

mason, we can get u caught up

by Jeanette C. Tue May 06, 2014 8:02 pm

Yeah Mason ask us what's up. Also I will respond to Areal's most recent Duplica analysis very shortly

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 8:05 pm

Basically I have done an extensive evaluation of Jeanette to make sure she's town, and she has passed. Chaz has executed a plan to say,"I have a plan" and see who reacts; I did :-(. Bailey was lynched by Jeanette's one vote, and she was mafia. Other than that, we hae done a few player analyses over the past three or so pages that u might want to read.

by Jeanette C. Tue May 06, 2014 8:10 pm

Areal I. wrote:
Duplica W. wrote:Vote: Areal I.

Lets get the talk started. We don't have many people talking, and we almost have 1/5 of Day 1 over. Guys, discuss?

She then decided to lynch Bailey, seemingly for the same reason. She did almost the same thing with both of us: lynch to spur conversation and then unlynch when the mafia hasn't reacted and everyone is suspicious of her. Since she did the same thing with me as with Bailey, and since I'm not the mafia, I don't think she was going for towncred on her suspicion of Bailey or trying to avoid lynching her buddy by unlynching; she obviously didn't do that with me. However, there was one suspicious post:

So basically what you are saying here is that because Duplica voted and unvoted Bailey in the same way that she voted and unvoted you, therefore she probably wasn't going for towncred nor was she avoiding lynching her scum partner. Is this summary correct? If so, then you are townreading Duplica then? (Because you just eliminated two possible scum motivations for Duplica's actions.) Clarification on this would help because I made a similar argument, and you bringing in your point of view seems to reinforce my perspective, if I am reading this accurately.

Areal I. wrote:
Duplica W. wrote:
Lynch Bailey

Assuming someone is mafia, if their team doesn't want one of their mafia to be lynched, they will have to vote 1 more than the vote on their friend count on someone else. Of course, after reading my post the mafia might just let Bailey (if he is mafia) die, but that would be a disadvantage. Also Bailey, when you come online, what do you think of the lynches?

This post made it seem like there was pretty good evidence put forth saying that Bailey was mafia, when there wasn't. Was it possible that she already knew that Bailey was mafia? To me it is hard to tell. I will post more about it in a bit.

I agree with this, but I'm just wondering: did you read my post about this exact same point during the last page? Because I had the exact same feeling as seen in my quoted post below - and I just want to know if you arrived at this feeling separately, or if you're agreeing with what I said.

Jeanette C. wrote:
Duplica W. wrote:Yeah, sorry.

Unvote: Areal I.

@Everyone
This setup is basically 7 Town + 1 Mafia Goon + 1 Mafia Doublevoter (7vs3). I'm sure, we can actually afford a mislynch as Day 1 goes by. Currently, I think the only lynch would be Bailey.

Lynch Bailey

Assuming someone is mafia, if their team doesn't want one of their mafia to be lynched, they will have to vote 1 more than the vote on their friend count on someone else. Of course, after reading my post the mafia might just let Bailey (if he is mafia) die, but that would be a disadvantage. Also Bailey, when you come online, what do you think of the lynches?
Duplica places the second vote on Bailey here. This is actually interesting to read back on because I'm not exactly sure why Duplica thought that "the only lynch" at that point was Bailey - the game then just consisted of my vote on Bailey and Duplica's vote on Areal. There seemed to be many options to lynch. It just seemed weird that Duplica just 'happened' to get the feeling that Bailey was Mafia, considering that she says "the mafia might just let Bailey die". This follows up on my lingering question of why Duplica made it sound like the vote on Bailey was set in stone. It's almost perfect that Duplica seemed to know all about Bailey in this post - could this be a bus by Duplica? I actually think Duplica is relatively town as I am writing this, but I'll move on to the next posts.

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 8:14 pm

Jeanette C. wrote:So basically what you are saying here is that because Duplica voted and unvoted Bailey in the same way that she voted and unvoted you, therefore she probably wasn't going for towncred nor was she avoiding lynching her scum partner. Is this summary correct? If so, then you are townreading Duplica then? (Because you just eliminated two possible scum motivations for Duplica's actions.) Clarification on this would help because I made a similar argument, and you bringing in your point of view seems to reinforce my perspective, if I am reading this accurately.

Yes: I think that the similarity between Duplica's vote/unvote of me and of Bailey makes her less likely to be scum, but compiling that with your observation that she seemed to be talking as though Bailey is likely to be mafia contradicts that and makes her seem scummy. Therefore, it is unclear to me whether or not she is scum.

by Areal I. Tue May 06, 2014 8:14 pm

whoops quote didn't work :-/

AJ edit: Fixed it for you Smile

by Mason A. Tue May 06, 2014 9:18 pm

Alright, I had to go to a piano lesson (hence why I didn't reply) but I'm gonna reply to Duplica's tl;dr post now (since I believe that's the only thing that concerns me as of right now, please tell me if there's something else I missed)

by Mason A. Tue May 06, 2014 9:30 pm

Alright, i'll try to reply to this (sorry if I am saying things that are redundant, i'm not looking at other posts to check that the things I say have already been said) I'll comment on the stuff in bold.

Jeanette C. wrote:
Mason A. wrote:With that said, I think it'd be better for everyone who placed votes based on activity to remove them before the deadline (since plurality does apply), as we can afford no-lynches since no town members will die.
The first reaction to the Bailey vote was Mason directly at me. He immediately sets up a perspective of wanting to No Lynch. Later on he clarifies that he says he is okay with lynching if there is a case on somebody, but as it turns out, Mason never develops a scumread on anyone (he townreads several players instead). The hesitance to label anybody as scum is really suspicious to me, and Mason has had this attitude since this very first reaction it seems like.
What I was trying to say here is that we shouldn't really lynch without any evidence (since I thought it wouldn't be a good idea, and it isn't. We just got really lucky, which is nice.) I also tend not to develop scumreads simply because... i'm really bad at it. I've lost quite a few games in the maf room because I made a scumread and failed miserably at correctly reading people.

Mason A. wrote:I uh... wow. That's a lot of discussion (comparatively, anyways). Honestly, I get the activity vote on Bailey, but I don't understand why Duplica felt it was necessary to add on to that. There isn't really much for Bailey to be pro or anti town, given that she's posted.... once.
It almost feels like at this point that Mason has resigned himself to giving in to my activity vote. Previously, Mason was all for NOT having activity votes (but rather No Lynches or lynches with enough reasoning), but in this post he actually does a 180 on the activity vote opinion. The opinion towards Duplica is fine given the circumstances then.

I wouldn't exactly say I had resigned to the vote yet, but I was saying that I understand a vote placed on Bailey to draw her out and get her to talk. At this point, I still did want an unvote on Bailey before the deadline.

Mason A. wrote:I was leaning towards Duplica being scum basically because I didn't understand her reasoning for voting Bailey. Now that she explained the reasoning for it, I don't really see it as a scum move anymore (it was moreso an activity as well as a vote based on a hypothesis rather than a bandwagon, based on her explanation), so i'm still lost as to who could be mafia. I'm not too great at reading people in the game, although I can get a generally good idea when someone seems to be town. I'd really like for some of the lurkers/nonposters to come on and talk, because that would really help discussion in my opinion.
On the surface this explanation is fine but what strikes me is that he has made a 180 on his opinion on voting since the beginning of the game (see my paragraph for the first quote in this post). He started off not wanting activity lynches, then was okay with it, and now he justifies his townread on Duplica BECAUSE it was an activity vote. The inconsistency with Mason worries me, and once again we have his hesitance on giving out scumreads.

I don't think I ever did justify a townread here(I don't think I ever townread Duplica in this post, rather I said I didn't think she was scum anymore, which is slightly different). Also, I was saying that I didn't see it as scummy anymore because she did have some reasoning behind the vote, rather than blind bandwagoning (which is what I originally saw it as because I did not understand Duplica's vote at all). I wasn't trying to say that I was not seeing it as scummy SOLELY because it was an activity vote, but because the vote had reasoning behind it, as well as possibly being a vote to get Bailey talking.

Mason A. wrote:I believe the reasoning for this was that Jeanette's vote was an activity one, while Duplica had provided reasoning that confused some of us, which is why we were looking at it as bandwagoning. She did clarify now though, and I don't see her as scum anymore.
Just adding onto the paragraph above.
Here again I don't say I think Duplica is a town, although I do say I don't see her as scum. It's a kind of neutral view that I have of her. Also I say again that I saw her as scummy due to bandwagoning, and the subsequent reasoning she gave removed my thoughts of her being scummy.

I think that's everything, if I missed something or if there's something you all would like my opinion on, please tell me so I can talk about it!

by Yuriko P. Wed May 07, 2014 6:12 am

Sorry for taking so long to join in after I was subbed in. I was reading all 12 pages, and when I got to page 10, someone said that we should just ask to get caught up. However since I was on page 10 already, I just went on with the reading.

To put my input on what I have gathered from the past 13 pages:
I agree with the majority of you on the townread of Jeannette, not because of her lucky mafia lynch, but because of her strong input in helping the town.
I can't get that good of a read on Duplica, because she has been going back and forth between mafia and villy in everyone's collective opinions.
Mason seems fairly town to me as well, for similar reasons to Jeanette, he has had a nice input on the spur of the discussion.
My top two candidates for mafia are Areal and Satchel, but I would not lynch them because I do not have a strong enough scumread on them.
Just to clarify, these reads are mainly based on what I have read, and I may have forgotten a few things as I was reading a lot of this at 1am.

by Satchel N. Wed May 07, 2014 7:38 am

could you like, elaborate on those two scumreads

by Satchel N. Wed May 07, 2014 7:40 am

I read all of Chaz's posts.

They are town

by Satchel N. Wed May 07, 2014 7:46 am

Areal I. wrote:
Satchel N. wrote:
Jeanette C. wrote:Satchel, is there anybody that leans scum to you? In particular, you mentioned all the major voices except Areal, who I'm most interested to see your read for. What is your thought about Areal immediately defending you?

Duplica's defensiveness actually strikes me as weird because at that point Areal was not even threatening or trying to clean herself - so there was no need to switch Duplica's vote away from Areal. Duplica, why is Bailey so attractive to you?
No.

I don't know, defending others is a perfectly normal thing to do.

Satchel, on page six, came on in the beginning, did several posts like the above, and left. The posts were quotes from someone that he thought signified something and a sentence telling whether or not he thought the person was scum. I believe that he figured it was day one, and that he didn't need extensive leads and evaluations yet, as we didn't have many leads anyway. He thought the conversation wouldn't pick up until the next day, and that day one isn't important. This explains his continued absence. I think he is town, despite Jeanette's feelings about him.

What's the difference between short, simple posts, and extensive wall posts that describe reads? They both describe the same feelings.

This post, it looks more of an attack at first, but with the opposite conclusion-I'm town.

Could you explain this?

by Yuriko P. Wed May 07, 2014 8:32 am

What I meant by you (Satchel) and Areal being my top candidates for mafia, is that both seem just a tad bit more scummy than the rest. I would still put you both more town sided, but I still would put you as a possibility.
Also, I don't 100% recall all of the defenses and accusation put toward Satchel, so if there was a large agreement that he is not a mafia, then I apologize.

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