Game 6: Black Flag Nightless

Do you think it was the design of the plan that was scummy, or perhaps reaction to Areal's response that was scummy?

Oh well, but I would like to bring your attention to the list that Yuriko said. It kinda proves the fact that Duplica is the most likely lynch. We could get one from everybody so that we group them together and agree on the most likely mafia

I just noticed that Chaz didn't group himself and Huromi together as a likely scumteam. Why is this so, Chaz? Why did you deem that possibility as "too unlikely to happen?"
I don't know if this is true, but this makes me think of the possibility of a Huromi/Chaz scumteam(which could be why Chaz, who is essentially established as a town player in pretty much everyone's eyes right now) could be a cleverly hidden mafia trying to move a vote onto an innocent Duplica to get the heat off of Huromi.

This might just be complete idiocy, but that's a random theory I thought up just now. Any thoughts on it?

Something that supports that theory is that Chaz did rank the two OTHER people who we currently think could be mafia as more likely to be mafia than Huromi, so that could be a way Chaz tried to move the focus off of Huromi onto Yuriko/Duplica...
One thing that goes against the theory is that Chaz did rank a scumteam with Huromi in it as the most likely possibility, but that could be an attempt to make Jeanette and I (who are currently FOS'ing Huromi) be more comfortable with the idea of Duplica being mafia...
Ugh, I don't even know. What are everyone else's thoughts?

Another piece of evidence that goes against it is that Chaz seems to really be pushing the idea of a Duplica + Huromi scumteam... However, this is something he did bring up previously, during the Areal lynch. That would be a piece of evidence against the Chaz + Huromi scumteam, since we weren't really looking at Duplica being suspicious at that time (I think) and there would have been no need for him to put more focus on Huromi if he was maf partners with him.

Huromi and Jeanette
Huromi and Chaz

Duplica and Chaz
Duplica and Mason

Are the teams that Chaz omitted. I get omitting teams of himself because from his eyes it might be obvious that he wouldn't be paired with them, but I'm not sure why Duplica/Mason was left out. I don't remember any obvious interaction between the two.

Ah, he omitted Duplica and himself as well. My theory probably isn't true then (since he omitted Duplica + himself AND Huromi + himself, not just Huromi + himself). I'm not sure why Duplica + me is left out either, but I would guess its because we didn't really interact. I'm not sure.
Anyways, its getting late where I am and I really need to sleep, so goodnight everyone.

One thing that strikes me about Chaz is that he is a backseat player - he is very vocal but he gives his opinions without ever acting upon them - he has never used a single lynch. It's easy for scum to just talk without having to justify their votes if they are never the ones voting.

I brought this up about Chaz a few pages ago but it may have been buried.

Hmm I would still be inclined to lynch Huromi because her after-explanation for lynching Areal was so weak. Like, it was like barely brushing on any changed reads from Areal's flip and trying to avoid stepping on anyone else's toes.

Chaz R. wrote:So errr, thanks for pointing out the obvious, as usual. So i have a few scum teams that I would like to list out. The top is most likely and the bottom is least likely

1.) Duplica + Huromi
2.) Duplica + Yuriko
3.) Huromi + Yuriko
4.) Duplica + Jeanette
5.) Yuriko + Chaz (me)
6.) Mason + Yuriko joint with Jeanette + Yuriko
7.) Jeanette + Mason
8.) Jeanette + Chaz (me)
9.) Mason + Chaz (me)
10.) Huromi + Mason

Of course there are others but they are way too unlikely to happen lol. But I would like to point out something, look at the top 5. Lets count how many of each player is listed.

Yuriko = 3
Huromi = 2
Chaz = 1
Duplica = 3

so obviously we can see that the top 5 scum partners have these players as the most common, Duplica and Yuriko. In other words, lynching them means they are most likely mafia. But what do you think guys? At this point using scumhuning maybe good but the fact that we are in LYLO and most of us suck at scumhunting, we need to start to look at probability.

Hmm. Yes, if your list is accurate, lynching me or Yuriko would have the highest chances. However, there are elements of bias, as you said "Of course there are others but they are way too unlikely to happen lol.". Yes, other scum teams might not be possible, but it shows that there is a certain bias of what you think. Therefore, this list is not accurate and lynching either me or Yuriko would not have the highest chances, don't you agree?

Mason A. wrote:First: We do have two lynches (based on what AJ said) so that means we have a pretty good chance of finding the mafia.

Next: here's the possible list.
Players: Jeanette, Chaz, Mason, Duplica, Huromi, Yuriko
Possible teams:
Jeanette and Chaz
Jeanette and Mason
Jeanette and Duplica
Jeanette and Huromi
Jeanette and Yuriko
Chaz and Mason
Chaz and Duplica
Chaz and Huromi
Chaz and Yuriko
Mason and Duplica
Mason and Huromi
Mason and Yuriko
Duplica and Huromi
Duplica and Yuriko
Huromi and Yuriko

Here are the scumlists that I think are possible, based on my reads:
Duplica and Huromi
Duplica and Yuriko
Huromi and Yuriko

For me, I cancelled those which I think aren't possible. Go ahead and ask questions if you want. Also, could you repost your "scumread"? I could almost swear you didn't talk about me at all (unless I somehow missed it >.>)

Yuriko P. wrote:I would say that my top 3 scum teams are:
1) Duplica+Huromi (reasoning for this has been stated already by other players)
2) Duplica+Jeanette (You two have been very cooperative, and I think it is possible that the leader of the game could be a mafia)
3) Chaz+Mason (I think these are the two that I meant, they have also been cooperative, and have each had a few scum incidents, e.g: the false plan, and I can't think of anymore right now because I have to leave class now.)
This is what I think right now, and if you have any questions just ask.

1)I understand that me and Huromi were in sync, but I believe that at that point, we have come to a truce. I switched lynches as Huromi seems to be getting higher in activity, and lynching someone I thought to be mafia might work too. Also, just a small test: What are the reasons stated by other players? Could you at least give an example? It would help.

2)Take note that Jeanette has been busy with exams (iirc), and is no longer the head of the town. It would be VERY advantageous if we were a mafia team, but I think that if Jeanette was scum she is doing a very risky play. I also don't think that she has been protecting anyone, and if she is protecting someone, someone would have already catch on, no? Therefore, this is my reasoning as to why if I am a mafia at all, I am not a partner with Jeanette.

3)Not much for me to say. This is the team I am thinking that is scum. However, I think its possible that Mason is just going with the flow of Chaz, with Chaz going head on with the fos.

...
...

Speaking of fosing, Chaz. You have a scumhunting list, don't you? IIRC, you have 2 posts on it, one explaining to Satchel and the other on a two-part process (find out who is scum, then try to persuade town to lynch the supposed scum). I would like to ask you on the first post. Which post which I posted, led to you thinking that the post was scum sided? I would love to explain it, if any, to you.

Jeanette C. wrote:Huromi and Jeanette
Huromi and Chaz

Duplica and Chaz
Duplica and Mason

Are the teams that Chaz omitted. I get omitting teams of himself because from his eyes it might be obvious that he wouldn't be paired with them, but I'm not sure why Duplica/Mason was left out. I don't remember any obvious interaction between the two.

Duplica and Chaz are out for obvious reasons. Chaz seems to be fighting against Huromi in the previous day, so I don't think too much. I don't think I really talked about Mason, nor did he talk about me, so that is a little off if we were really a scum team. Huromi and Jeanette is the same as above, and also that Jeanette with anybody is possible due to the active day 1 and 2 (She was leading the town). However, also due to day 1 and 2, I don't think Jeanette is scum, which I believe many of you also agree with.

Mason A. wrote:Ah, he omitted Duplica and himself as well. My theory probably isn't true then (since he omitted Duplica + himself AND Huromi + himself, not just Huromi + himself). I'm not sure why Duplica + me is left out either, but I would guess its because we didn't really interact. I'm not sure.
Anyways, its getting late where I am and I really need to sleep, so goodnight everyone.

I don't see a point in adding it in IF he is going to go all fos on me.

Jeanette C. wrote:One thing that strikes me about Chaz is that he is a backseat player - he is very vocal but he gives his opinions without ever acting upon them - he has never used a single lynch. It's easy for scum to just talk without having to justify their votes if they are never the ones voting.

I brought this up about Chaz a few pages ago but it may have been buried.

Hmm I would still be inclined to lynch Huromi because her after-explanation for lynching Areal was so weak. Like, it was like barely brushing on any changed reads from Areal's flip and trying to avoid stepping on anyone else's toes.

I actually never noticed that Chaz never lynched. If might be not lynching as to protect himself, if the lynched person flips town.

So far, I'm still looking for a little more evidence.

Also guys, I do have a tendency (as you know), of not saying what I meant to say clearly. If you need clarification on any of my posts, I'll be happy to give one.

Votecount 5.1
************************************
Huromi M.(0):
Duplica W.(0):
Chaz R.(0):
Yuriko P.(0):
Mason A.(0):
Jeanette C.(0):
Not Voting(6): Chaz R., Yuriko P., Jeanette C., Duplica W., Mason A., Huromi M.
************************************
There are 5 people so it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is Sunday the 25th at 9pm EST.

Plurality applies. If the deadline was now, Huromi M. would be lynched, as they had the second most votes from yesterday.

If you really need to know why I havent lynched yet, I'll tell you

Day1: I wasn't subbed in until half of it and when I was, no one really had an initial lynch except jeanette on bailey. But thats it, because there wasnt really a good reason

Day 2: The hate on Satchel

Its not that I was ssaving myself from tge lynch, I did not WANT the lynch to happen and I explain clearly my reasons. But ofc no one gave a shit and ignored me

Day 3: The "I am inactive so lynch me" day

So most of you guys wanted to lynch hajime because of 2 reasons

1.) He was inactive

2.) When he was active he posts off topic stuff (until the end bit)

So really? Do you really think that was gonna convince me to lynch him? I mean who would freaking spur suspicion on themselves if they were mafia, like WTF?

Day 4: Areal's Tragedy

Well really I did not know who to lynch as really I had no decisive reason to. Coz its obvious, if one lynches withiut reason then one gets shooted down and blamed mafia so why would I baselessly lymch just so I dont fall ibto the scum hole of "not using your lynch to keep safe"

So yeah thats prettyumuch it

well Duplica, the thing is, there is so much shiz against you, but it isn't enough that really proves you are mafia. Well do you know why people before seem to kinda read you as null? it is because you are actually really shadier, you are not very clear with your stuff. You do really scummy stuff, explain it with town shiz and post like a townie, then do something scummy again and repeat the process. For example, you lynched Huromi with the reason "he seems scummish".....like.....omg

but there is something that you guys are not getting about this probability thing. this isnt the "level of scumminess" list, its "list of scumteams" list and with that you count how frequently they appear. I understand that Huromi at the moment is probably the scummiest here at the moment but that doesn't mean can be in different scum teams, so for example Huromi. He looks like he can go with Duplica, he can also go with Yuriko but I do not see who else he can go with. but lets say Duplica, she may not be as scummy as Huromi but she could go with Jeanette, Huromi and Yuriko. So duplica has a higher chance of being mafia when lynched.

Chaz R. wrote:If you really need to know why I havent lynched yet, I'll tell you

Day1: I wasn't subbed in until half of it and when I was, no one really had an initial lynch except jeanette on bailey. But thats it, because there wasnt really a good reason

Day 2: The hate on Satchel

Its not that I was ssaving myself from tge lynch, I did not WANT the lynch to happen and I explain clearly my reasons. But ofc no one gave a shit and ignored me

Day 3: The "I am inactive so lynch me" day

So most of you guys wanted to lynch hajime because of 2 reasons

1.) He was inactive

2.) When he was active he posts off topic stuff (until the end bit)

So really? Do you really think that was gonna convince me to lynch him? I mean who would freaking spur suspicion on themselves if they were mafia, like WTF?

Day 4: Areal's Tragedy

Well really I did not know who to lynch as really I had no decisive reason to. Coz its obvious, if one lynches withiut reason then one gets shooted down and blamed mafia so why would I baselessly lymch just so I dont fall ibto the scum hole of "not using your lynch to keep safe"

So yeah thats prettyumuch it

So NOW!? Why aren't you lynching now? If you lynch a scum team, I am very sure it will reveal at least a team, no? You fos'd me and Huromi, why aren't you lynching ANY of them?

Chaz R. wrote:well Duplica, the thing is, there is so much shiz against you, but it isn't enough that really proves you are mafia. Well do you know why people before seem to kinda read you as null? it is because you are actually really shadier, you are not very clear with your stuff. You do really scummy stuff, explain it with town shiz and post like a townie, then do something scummy again and repeat the process. For example, you lynched Huromi with the reason "he seems scummish".....like.....omg

but there is something that you guys are not getting about this probability thing. this isnt the "level of scumminess" list, its "list of scumteams" list and with that you count how frequently they appear. I understand that Huromi at the moment is probably the scummiest here at the moment but that doesn't mean can be in different scum teams, so for example Huromi. He looks like he can go with Duplica, he can also go with Yuriko but I do not see who else he can go with. but lets say Duplica, she may not be as scummy as Huromi but she could go with Jeanette, Huromi and Yuriko. So duplica has a higher chance of being mafia when lynched.

Because using a plan and lynching someone, trusting someone for one day is scummy. I do not feel like explaining the plan thing anymore. And, if me and Huromi really were a scum team, we would not have done it so obviously! Also, does Huromi NOT look scummy? I am very sure someone else, at that point of the game, also thought Huromi looked scummy. So this is the part where I get bashed up for lynching? Linking back to your other comment on your no lynch, isn't that what I have been implying? Act stupid, live longer. If you don't lynch, town can't get a read on your views on lynching! Therefore, whatever views they already HAD on you, will stick!

Also, apparently me and Jeanette appeared more than Chaz and Mason.

~~
I'm sorry for the tone of this post. The thing is, Chaz is writing it like how a child would. I'm not saying his reasoning is bad, its okay (I think I can see from his viewpoint, IF he is not mafia.). Its just the way he types is annoying me. He seems really annoyed trying to explain his views when people don't get it,

Chaz R. wrote:For example, you lynched Huromi with the reason "he seems scummish".....like.....omg

Also, sometimes (and only sometimes), it seems like he doesn't read. Maybe he does, but he doesn't explain enough.

Chaz R. wrote: it is because you are actually really shadier, you are not very clear with your stuff.

Duplica W. wrote:Also guys, I do have a tendency (as you know), of not saying what I meant to say clearly. If you need clarification on any of my posts, I'll be happy to give one.

I beg of everyone: Ask if you do not understand. Again, sorry if I sound like I am bashing you up.

After writing up that post, I don't feel as "agitated" as before. Now I'm back to neutral again.

Also Chaz, I forgot to ask: Who do you plan to lynch now?

I was trying to read everything that was posted, but I was unable to process and understand any of it. I'll try to get back to it later.
(Hopefully later today). If there's anything you guys do want to ask me though, please do.

My comments in bold

Jeanette C. wrote:One thing that strikes me about Chaz is that he is a backseat player - he is very vocal but he gives his opinions without ever acting upon them - he has never used a single lynch. It's easy for scum to just talk without having to justify their votes if they are never the ones voting.

This is definitely a legitimate point, but it may be just due to a hesitance to vote against someone in general without solid reasoning. Honestly, for a majority (if not all) of the lynches, we did not have a large amount of solid reasoning against the person.

Hmm I would still be inclined to lynch Huromi because her after-explanation for lynching Areal was so weak. Like, it was like barely brushing on any changed reads from Areal's flip and trying to avoid stepping on anyone else's toes.
I agree with this also. The only problem with this that I have is that other than the fact that Huromi didn't really explain his lynch on Areal, there isn't very much I can see that could cement him as a mafia. Since we only have two lynches left, we need to be really careful about who is lynched.

[quote="Duplica W."]

Mason A. wrote:
Also, could you repost your "scumread"? I could almost swear you didn't talk about me at all (unless I somehow missed it >.>)
I'm pretty sure my "scumread" pretty much said that I couldn't really tell and that you seemed town to me.

Yuriko P. wrote:I would say that my top 3 scum teams are:
1) Duplica+Huromi (reasoning for this has been stated already by other players)
2) Duplica+Jeanette (You two have been very cooperative, and I think it is possible that the leader of the game could be a mafia)
3) Chaz+Mason (I think these are the two that I meant, they have also been cooperative, and have each had a few scum incidents, e.g: the false plan, and I can't think of anymore right now because I have to leave class now.)
This is what I think right now, and if you have any questions just ask.

3)Not much for me to say. This is the team I am thinking that is scum. However, I think its possible that Mason is just going with the flow of Chaz, with Chaz going head on with the fos.

I have tended to agree with Chaz and townread him in everything he has done thus far, so a scumteam for us two would seem likely. However, given that I am town, I just don't think its possible. I also think there are people who it would be better to lynch (Huromi) instead of Chaz, who I still think is probably town, and me.

Chaz R. wrote:
Day 2: The hate on Satchel

Its not that I was ssaving myself from tge lynch, I did not WANT the lynch to happen and I explain clearly my reasons. But ofc no one gave a shit and ignored me
To be fair, there seemed to be some strange bloodlust for Satchel that occurred, mainly because many viewed that he hadn't contributed much to town... I'm pretty sure all of our lynches (minus the Areal one) have been based off of inactivity/how a person is not a help to town thus far. Also, I was against the lynch for Satchel, though not as strongly against it as you.

I think that's everything that would be related to everyone or that could be addressed by me. If i missed something, please tell me.

wow, that was a failed quote. The one that was quoted and attributed to me was actually something Duplica said. Sorry for the confusion there.

Well Duplica the answer to your question is.....I do not know. I kinda want Huromi to talk, Duplica is seriously getting annoyed at me (sometimes I feel like she is gonna track me down and kill me IRL) I want to lynch either Huromi or Duplica, but what I am trying to work out is who would be more likely to be mafia so we do not lose if we lynch town

Chaz R. wrote:Well Duplica the answer to your question is.....I do not know. I kinda want Huromi to talk, Duplica is seriously getting annoyed at me (sometimes I feel like she is gonna track me down and kill me IRL) I want to lynch either Huromi or Duplica, but what I am trying to work out is who would be more likely to be mafia so we do not lose if we lynch town

/me stabs the person right in front of me, staring at me directly in the face

And I just failed the 3rd person perspective. Oh well.

Chaz R. wrote:well Duplica, the thing is, there is so much shiz against you, but it isn't enough that really proves you are mafia. Well do you know why people before seem to kinda read you as null? it is because you are actually really shadier, you are not very clear with your stuff. You do really scummy stuff, explain it with town shiz and post like a townie, then do something scummy again and repeat the process. For example, you lynched Huromi with the reason "he seems scummish".....like.....omg

but there is something that you guys are not getting about this probability thing. this isnt the "level of scumminess" list, its "list of scumteams" list and with that you count how frequently they appear. I understand that Huromi at the moment is probably the scummiest here at the moment but that doesn't mean can be in different scum teams, so for example Huromi. He looks like he can go with Duplica, he can also go with Yuriko but I do not see who else he can go with. but lets say Duplica, she may not be as scummy as Huromi but she could go with Jeanette, Huromi and Yuriko. So duplica has a higher chance of being mafia when lynched.

I was rereading this, and I saw something interesting. According to you, Chaz, I lynched Huromi with the reason "He seems scummish". I would like you remind you that there aren't cops here, and the only way to make an "accurate" lynch is to scum hunt. Don't tell me you lynch because "He doesn't seem scummish".

Chaz R. wrote:Well Duplica the answer to your question is.....I do not know. I kinda want Huromi to talk, Duplica is seriously getting annoyed at me (sometimes I feel like she is gonna track me down and kill me IRL) I want to lynch either Huromi or Duplica, but what I am trying to work out is who would be more likely to be mafia so we do not lose if we lynch town

If you can't decide, Huromi would be lynched anyway. So I'll see who you lynch.

No, you hang someone just for the fun of it -.-.....

Ofc you lynch someone if they are scummy but 1.) You said "scummish" indicating that you are not even certain and 2.) Just for seeming a bit scummy does not need to result in a lynch, its when we have solid evidence and actually have some discussoon when we decide on a lynch.

And no, I am not gonna lynch coz 1.) Give me a good reason and 2.) I am not gonna let you boss me about like that.

Votecount 5.2
************************************
Huromi M.(0):
Duplica W.(0):
Chaz R.(0):
Yuriko P.(0):
Mason A.(0):
Jeanette C.(0):
Not Voting(6): Chaz R., Yuriko P., Jeanette C., Duplica W., Mason A., Huromi M.
************************************
There are 5 people so it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is Sunday the 25th at 9pm EST.

Plurality applies. If the deadline was now, Huromi M. would be lynched, as they had the second most votes from yesterday.

ajhockeystar wrote:Votecount 5.2
************************************
Huromi M.(0):
Duplica W.(0):
Chaz R.(0):
Yuriko P.(0):
Mason A.(0):
Jeanette C.(0):
Not Voting(6): Chaz R., Yuriko P., Jeanette C., Duplica W., Mason A., Huromi M.
************************************
There are 5 people so it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is Sunday the 25th at 9pm EST.

Plurality applies. If the deadline was now, Huromi M. would be lynched, as they had the second most votes from yesterday.

Hold on a second, did you just say "They will be lynched" even though you referred to Huromi, meaning that both mafia are gonna be lynched as you are saying this in the plural form?

I say they so it doesn't say a certain gender. And seriously, did you not see that in any of my other votecounts? >.>