Game 14: Protect Wisely!

Toby J. wrote:I am still going to protect Himashi tonight. Idc if mafia knows this, I'll probably get lynched tomorrow anyway, might as well help as much as possible.

You know, Toby, saying such a thing is dangerous. Such a statement surely relies on a few factors in order to determine your true intentions in saying such a thing.
1)If you are mafia yourself or not
2)If Kimyo flipped mafia or not
3)If I am mafia (this is where it gets tricky, stay with me guys)
I shall indicate each scenario with either a + for that's true, and a - for that's false. So --+ means I am mafia, neither of you two were, whike +-+ means me and you were mafia, Kimyo was town. I told you, this gets confusing, try looking at it from the perspective of late yesterday.
So here we go:

---
Okay, so, you know you're town, and you obviously have a protect for another person at that point.
Wait, why'd you have it then? You were a solid pro-town player, surely the mafia would be after your butt--it was best to use it before you died. Well, I suppose that's okay, you'd have self-protected in that scenario like I did, and probably figured someone else would save me; good prediction.
Anyways, you have a solid town read on me; 90% is lofty, effectively, I am clear to you. Kimyo seems good to you, you do not suspect her at all, but town is gonna lynch her anyways, you just give up and know that at least you won't be complicit in the mistake.
So really, saying such a thing shows how much you trust me even though I've made a mistake.
So... Why say such a thing, though? WIFOMing the mafia, as if taunting "Get him! I'm obviously not going to protect him!" when you would do it anyway? Or could you have been fooling the mafia into not targetting me, thus preserving your protect for a later night?
The latter is obviously the better choice. Someone else may protect me anyways... But the chance of that is lessened because you said you'd protect me. That leaves me wide open. And if the mafia took the WIFOM and targetted me then, it'd be 1-4, town would surely lynch you because of the history with Azumi, it'd be 1-3, then everyone's protections are exhausted, easy 1-2 LyLo with a likely woefully inactive town.
Either way, that was a stupid thing for you, a townie, to say, since you thought both me and Kimyo to be town. Man, that was so stupid...

--+
Same as above.
Except the endgame is guaranteed to be me winning as Mafia, I would be the one in that 1-2 LyLo, and Himashi Da Hammah would easily win it for his bussed mafia bros.
So that was a REALLY bad play there.

-+-
You clearly did have a town read on me and Kimyo. So when you said that, it was still stupid for the reasons explained in ---.
Would your plans change upon realizing Kimyo was mafia?
Well, clearly the mafia isn't me, you trust me. The mafia is going to keep you alive for the specific purpose of lynchbait. The mafia won't target me, you said you'd protect me. So it'd go down to 1-4. It's very likely you'd be lynched, and mafia would then just take me out that night, all the protections are gone. Same final outcome as ---, but for different reasons.

-++
Well, you wasted that protect, I the mafia take out someone else, get you lynched, kill another, and I win the 1-2 LyLo. Same as --+ but for different reasons.
To be perfectly honest, I'm starting to lose focus on this myself, keep your minds sharp guys, this is my single most important post of the game.

+--
This scenario is not possible, because you would have known that Kimyo was mafia. Since this theory depends on what is going on in your mind, we can ignore this, it would not be possible.

+-+
Same as above.
It’s a smiley!

++-
Aaahhhh, the real beans of this entire post.
You knew your other scumpartner was about to be felled, yet again, by Himashi Da Hammah. You'd already dug yourself into a hole by saying you thought Kimyo was not scummy in an attempt to get me to back off if her, which backfired when I realized you had a very high probability of being mafia. The only way to stop her impending lynch was for both of you to vote the same person to stop her from being harmed. It would be the substance of the D3 minority failed lynch, but have the effect of the D2 successful lynch. It would then be 2-4, with you two nigh-confirmed mafia. The only way you could win this is if you avoided the protections both remaining nights and somehow avoided a lynch some day later... All in all, not an ideal situation.
So you two decided to bite the bullet and allow her to be lynched so you could carry on, "admitting your mistake about Kimyo". It's 1-5 with the hammer on Kimyo, night is about to come as the mod wanted to update the two games simultaneously. So what do you decide to do?
The above quote.
What purpose would it serve to aid you as the mafia? Psychologically, it shows you have guts. Usually mafia lose their guts in favor of pusillanimously flipping out in such a situation; by demonstrating otherwise, it can be interpreted as townie. It also puts on the illusion that, even though you were mistaken, you 'now know' I'm town, for a fact. This could be used as a way of gaining propinquity to a town power source, and perhaps encouraging me to forgive you. I would obviously be a nightkill of yours later on when all the protections are gone. Then you could really beat the drum about how you 'so knew it'. And the part about not knowing if mafia cares can be explained as a combination of the above two factors. You 'so knew' I was town that you gutsily and valiantly protected me, not even caring that the mafia could not target me. And even though I’d declared you to suddenly be one of my main suspicions, you did manufacture your words in such a way as to suggest that you really were just a mistaken townie.
The below quotes could all be interpreted as said.

Toby J. wrote:I'd rather not lynch Kimyo. I know this seems scummy but I hope you guys won't lynch me tomorrow for the same reason you lynched Kimyo.

Mostly because I personally don't find him scummy, and I don't want to end up lynching someone just because Himashi said so, which is probably why most of you lynched Kimyo.

Toby J. wrote:xD whatever, we'll just have to see what happens

Toby J. wrote:Also, Rossi, don't 'change your mind easily'
It'll be easy for mafia to manipulate you later Anyway, it doesn't matter anymore.

After a long and disappointing day, the sudden shift in your demeanor was likely a facade on your part to appear a happy townie, and to be so apologetic as to allay most accusations against you. So psychologically, this is a great move for you, though it does make you out to be a bleeding heart of sorts.
So what could such a declaration do for you logically?
Well, by saying you’d protect me, you could either drive people who would have protected me away from protecting me, or drive people who would not have protected me to protect me because you had landed on my suspicions list. So it depends; as mafia, would you kill me, kill someone else, or NK tonight?
If you did kill me, and nobody protected me because of what you’d said, it would reveal that you’d lied about protecting me, and it would be Azumi D2 all over again. You lose.
If you did kill me, and I was protected, then it would be 1-5 (holy Miltank), you could say, “See? I WIFOMed with Mafia and protected Himashi when it was ‘obvious’ I would not protect him!” The other guy who protected me would claim to have also protected me, and you’d say, “Well… You just had to have trusted me.” With smart play, you could maybe get Sunreeser lynched, 1-4, kill me, 1-3, then the final day would be a MyLo. Since No Lynching is not allowed, you probably have about a 50% chance of convincing the remaining town of Satoru-Dayton-Rossi to lynch the wrong guy. 50% chance of success.
If you targetted someone other than me, and nobody protected me because they believed you, welp. Let’s say a 50% chance that town protects correctly. If it was a good protect, 1-5, you could play it exactly like the above scenario. If town does not protect correctly, then it’s 1-4 and you are the main target of suspicion. Even if you got town to lynch wrong somehow, probably on Sunreeser, and killed me that night, it would be 1-2 LyLo with Dayton and Rossi. I doubt at that point either of them would give you any mercy. 50% success if town protects correctly, ~10% success if town does not.
If you targetted someone other than me, and people protected me, then it’s the same thing as the latter scenario of the above line of thought. ~10%
If you NKed, then it’s just the second scenario. Except by doing so, you remove the possibility of the first scenario happening.
Okay, so, if you hadn’t made that post, I would likely have been protected anyways--You’d either just NK or target someone else, obviously.
If you killed someone else, then it would be 1-4. Because I didn’t take the time to analyze this post of yours, I would have weighed between you and Sunreeser the next day as if you were equally scummy. I probably (75% chance) would have gone after you considering how well you worked with Kimyo, but in the case that I’d go after Sunreeser, I would have lynched you anyways the next day. 0% chance of success.
If you NKed, you’d have no real defense. It’s pretty much the exact same scenario as above, except with an additional townie for us to convince. 1% chance of success.
So, as you can see, in this circumstance of you being mafia, Kimyo being mafia, and me being town, this post was very good for you both strategically and psychologically. It opens up new doors for you that allow you to have a tangible grasp on winning, and even if you don’t win, you’d still get more points in most cases. As for psychologically, I’d like to ask people, what did you think of Toby before and after you read that post of his?

+++
Same as +-- and +-+. Plus Azumi was a thing, sooo... Yeahhh…

As you can see, the only ones bothering to look at are -+-, -++, and ++-, because Kimyo, was, in fact, mafia, and it’s impossible for all three of us to have been mafia. I’ll even include the one where I am scum to be perfectly fair, but -+- and ++- are the only real contenders.
-+- entails that you screwed up royally as town in trusting Kimyo, one of the last scum, and claiming that you would protect me was a very bad idea. If this is the correct scenario, then it’s pretty clear that Sunreeser is the last remaining mafia, so your death is only a stumbling block that causes the town to lose final points.
-++ entails that you screwed up even more than royally as town in trusting both me and Kimyo, the last two scum, and claiming that you would protect me serves no purpose other than to appease me. Sunreeser would, of course, die the next day, and I, the mafia, would win.
++- entails that you are mafia, and that was a good move both psychologically and strategically for the reasons explained.
Once again we're at a crossroads with a ml. Just the fact that we have a ml makes me want to lynch you straight away, considering how protective you seemed of Kimyo yesterday, but I'll humor you.
Remember how I said Azumi was either mafia or a bad-logic townie? And how I said that Kimyo was either mafia or an unfathomably anti-town townie? Well, I have a similar proposal for you, Toby J.
You are either the last mafia or you screwed up amazingly as town considering yesterday's occurrences.
Pick.
Your.
Freaking.
Poison.
LYNCH TOBY J.

Plus the theory that he's mafia, ++-, totally supports the idea that he'd No Kill last night. Since nobody died, and, really, nearly all the protections should be gone by now, this reaffirms my theory.
Though, NKing was the way to go anyways for the mafia anyways considering it would force a MyLo after today's mislynch. But still, duly predicted.

Seriously, every time I read your posts, it makes me laugh XD. But I'll have to admit, they are logical. sort of.

Anyway, if I was mafia, do you really think i would make the same mistake Kimyo did? :/ I mean, kimyo only got lynched because he refused to lynch Azumi. I don't think I would do the exact same thing.

I didn't lynch Kimyo because I didn't find him scummy. I'm also sure that not everyone who lynched Kimyo thought he was mafia. They did it because you did.
The only reason I thought to not to that was because if I lynched him and he flipped town, it would have partly been my fault. Adding that I thought he was town, I wouldn't have lynched him anyway.

Theres probably only one mafia left, you got two in a row so don't change course now gdi.
As for my opinion. The only thing I thought of now is Sunreeser as the last mafia. Because of the things I added before and now that I know Kimyo is mafia, looking back I noticed that Kimyo 'suspected' satoru and not sunreeser.
I understand we have a mislynch. I'm not gonna try to convince you to unlynch me, but if you do, when i flip town, imo you should focus on sunreeser.

As for the others. Please contribute more. All you guys do is wait around for Himashi to do something and agree with it >_< I understand that Himashi is town and whatnot but have your own opinions for once.

hehe, well played Himashi, glhf guys

Himashi G. wrote:Plus the theory that he's mafia, ++-, totally supports the idea that he'd No Kill last night. Since nobody died, and, really, nearly all the protections should be gone by now, this reaffirms my theory.
Though, NKing was the way to go anyways for the mafia anyways considering it would force a MyLo after today's mislynch. But still, duly predicted.

we arent gonna NK we MIGHT nl though

kimyo what do you know about yourself

and resite a new scum rate

what happened to Dayton?

NLing isn't allowed. Wait, is it?

tbh I do not think it is toby and for one sole reason. He didn't lynch me (I think and am pretty tired atm so will check later but before I forget) he was more active than me and could've lynched me anytime I wanted before I even had the chance to lynch thus he would hammer me I think. I do not think it is sun anymore due to kimyo plus azumi playing exactly the same in terms of lynching me. Finally I think it is Dayton for the lynch on me and for the sole reason that he lynched kimyo but seemed more (I didn't really check his post but remember it a little) that it seemed rushed and jus went for kimyo auto plus toby was active around the same speed azumi was and could've just lynched me to my death. I still need to read as this read might be highly inaccurate but had to post this so I do not forget my ideas later and can use this for my future ideas later on. I am busy atm and will check and read everything more carefully later (thus why I am not lynch Dayton also atm).

Himashi G. wrote:NLing isn't allowed. Wait, is it?

It is.

Also, Himashi, if I was mafia. why the heck would I no kill? I'm pretty sure mafia wouldn't risk the no kill. Besides, I openly told everyone I was protecting you. So I'm pretty sure mafia wouldn't have targeted you.

Also, theres really no point in nl'ing. Not like one night would let us gather any information.

Toby J. wrote:I am still going to protect Himashi tonight. Idc if mafia knows this, I'll probably get lynched tomorrow anyway, might as well help as much as possible.

Didn't you say before that you shouldn't say who you protect because mafia will know. Why did you say "idc if mafia knows this" now? This could be mind games, but if it is, I think it is too obvious and your second sentence doesn't really seem like you are playing mind games. If you are trying to help as much as possible, why would you say who you will protect? Isn't it better to lure mafia into killing Himashi (but you will protect him) rather than scare them out? Please clarify your intentions because I am confused

Also, "I am still going to protect Himashi" - What do you mean by still? You do realize that you have only one protect on someone else right, or are you just saying you will protect Himashi even though he reads you as scum? Anyways, I am quite interested in your thoughts.

Sunreeser wrote:

Toby J. wrote:

Sunreeser wrote:

Toby J. wrote:I never found Azumi scummy until yesterday. Even then, she didn't exactly say anything scummy. So I don't think lynching Azumi TODAY is a good idea. But I always picture whatever she says from a mafia point of view though.
But if she is a townie, then its not her fault that two people saved her at the last minute and made her seem scummy.
Right now, I'm focusing more on sunreeser and Satoru. Both seemed desperate to save Azumi. Not saying Azumi isn't mafia, I just feel we should focus on those two more.

I don't think what you said here made much sense because if Satoru or me was desperate to save Azumi because we are mafia, then Azumi should be mafia too. However, the way you said that it isn't Azumi's fault that Satoru and me lynch Azumi should mean that Satoru and I lynch Azumi because of personal reasons, not because Azumi is mafia. I definitely see where you are coming from, but this is just my personal opinion.

All I'm saying is that since we are unclear about Azumi, we should lynch one of you two. If you flip out to be mafia, then we lynch Azumi. Only because if Azumi is not mafia, and you are, then you really had no reason to save her at the last minute like that and make her look scummy.

That's logical, but your logic assumes on the fact that we lynch a mafia today. You never discussed what will happen if the person we lynch doesn't turn out to be mafia. It seems as if you are too sure who is what. Also, I used my lynch to lynch who I believed was the best option for yesterday. As I said before, my lynch wasn't pressured by anyone (unless deadline i guess). If you're not lynching anyone, you cannot blame me for mislynching.

The main scummy thing about Toby is that he seems to know "too much". I have repeated this in many of my previous posts and I think Himashi did mention it too that many of his strategies are based on too much assumptions. Is this always a mafia thing tho? To me, it doesn't always necessary mean that this person is mafia. However, I have said before that this game is more about "who seems the scummiest" or "who is least town" rather than "this guy is mafia" (to me, at least). I don't see a better lynch option than Toby today tbh.

Here is my opinion on Toby. I'll do a read list today but I have to go for now.

Okay, I should have re phrased that. By 'still' I meant even though Himashi was turning against me.

and dammit guys, because you look into every word I say, I'm gonna have to triple check everything from now on, only because I can't seem to say anything normal without you finding something scummy about it :/

I'm not surprised that sunreeser would turn against me tho. I suspect him so he obviously would suspect me.

Also, what do you mean by 'knows too much'. If I knew too much I wouldn't be hesitating to lynch you right now. I don't know anything smh. The only thing I know is that I am town and you're using Himashi's suspicion on me to your advantage.

Even then, I don't know if you're mafia. I could be wrong.

Toby J. wrote:Also, what do you mean by 'knows too much'. If I knew too much I wouldn't be hesitating to lynch you right now. I don't know anything smh. The only thing I know is that I am town and you're using Himashi's suspicion on me to your advantage.

Even then, I don't know if you're mafia. I could be wrong.

Scummy words/thoughts come up naturally as a scum. Let's take Kimyo as an example when he asked what does the modified doc do or something. If you are town, you would already know, but since he was mafia, he "slipped."

And no. I am not using Himashi suspicion to my advantage. I have said way before Himashi suspected you that you seems to know too much. If you don't know what I am talking about, see the post I quoted.

Sunreeser wrote:

Toby J. wrote:I am still going to protect Himashi tonight. Idc if mafia knows this, I'll probably get lynched tomorrow anyway, might as well help as much as possible.

Didn't you say before that you shouldn't say who you protect because mafia will know. Why did you say "idc if mafia knows this" now? This could be mind games, but if it is, I think it is too obvious and your second sentence doesn't really seem like you are playing mind games. If you are trying to help as much as possible, why would you say who you will protect? Isn't it better to lure mafia into killing Himashi (but you will protect him) rather than scare them out? Please clarify your intentions because I am confused

Also, "I am still going to protect Himashi" - What do you mean by still? You do realize that you have only one protect on someone else right, or are you just saying you will protect Himashi even though he reads you as scum? Anyways, I am quite interested in your thoughts.

He meant 'still' as in, he'll 'still' protect me, even though I turned on him--with one post about how he never seemed to think any of the mafia were scummy and he seemed to be working with Kimyo.

Toby J. wrote:

Sunreeser wrote:

Toby J. wrote:I never found Azumi scummy until yesterday. Even then, she didn't exactly say anything scummy. So I don't think lynching Azumi TODAY is a good idea. But I always picture whatever she says from a mafia point of view though.
But if she is a townie, then its not her fault that two people saved her at the last minute and made her seem scummy.
Right now, I'm focusing more on sunreeser and Satoru. Both seemed desperate to save Azumi. Not saying Azumi isn't mafia, I just feel we should focus on those two more.

I don't think what you said here made much sense because if Satoru or me was desperate to save Azumi because we are mafia, then Azumi should be mafia too. However, the way you said that it isn't Azumi's fault that Satoru and me lynch Azumi should mean that Satoru and I lynch Azumi because of personal reasons, not because Azumi is mafia. I definitely see where you are coming from, but this is just my personal opinion.

All I'm saying is that since we are unclear about Azumi, we should lynch one of you two. If you flip out to be mafia, then we lynch Azumi. Only because if Azumi is not mafia, and you are, then you really had no reason to save her at the last minute like that and make her look scummy.

Toby knew full well Azumi was scummier, yet he wanted to go after Sunreeser on PMyLo.
Also, I am so sorry, guys, I didn't know we could NL. I'd not have encouraged a vote on PMyLo, even though I was 100% sure Azumi was scum at that point. First game, sorry.

Toby J. wrote:Even then, theres still a possibility of Azumi being mafia (if yiou both are town) its just that the chances seem less.
And because Kimyo gives a town read and Himashi, although very... uhm... agressive? still seems like town. The others are too inactive to tell.

He was defending Kimyo even back then, when the only real things she'd done the entire game at that point was post a reads list and attempt to mitigate her inactivity.

Toby, hadn't we agreed early this game that submissively giving up was townie-like in the case of Koji? If you were town, you'd be quiet now so that we could focus on scumhunting before the day ended and you were proven right, and I wrong.
You are acting exactly the opposite of what a good townie does.

Sunreeser, lynch 'im
Satoru, lynch 'im
Dayton, lynch 'im
Rossi, lynch 'im