Re: Game 9: Fire and Ice Mafia

by Kazuki N. Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:30 am

Julie C. wrote:
Kazuki N. wrote:
Julie C. wrote:
Kazuki N. wrote:
Julie C. wrote:
Kazuki N. wrote:So here's my analysis/reads of the current players:

Tori P. lynches Bucky A. meaning these two are unlikely in the same faction. This lynch could potentially be a bandwagon, but I understand where he is coming, and honestly I would place my vote on Bucky A. too.

Romeo M. stated "We can't even lynch today." in one of his earlier post, but then started the first lynch on Bucky A. However, this may just be a part of his scum hunting techniques, but also could potentially be a scumslip. And obviously, Romeo M. and Bucky A. is unlikely to be in the same faction.

I am reading Robert O. as town. He seems very innocent at the moment and is contributing to discussions.

Callister W. is in a similar boat with Robert O. Nothing suspicious about her yet, and she seems to contribute to town discussions. For me, she is town. She provided a read and her vote on Trixie may be a bandwagon, but she provided arguments.

Bucky A. is super scummy to me for claiming villy out of the blue, especially after being lynch by Romeo. She is leaning mafia to me at the moment.

Trixie T is in danger of being lynched at the moment. The main accusation of her is lurking, and popping in just to make questionable claims and arguments. Trixie, though, did not took the same approach as Bucky A. did and did not try to defend herself as much. For me at the moment, she is leaning Mafia.

Julie C. and Namiko R. both voted for trixie, and seems to think that trixie is the more scummier one compared to Bucky. This could mean that one of them is mafia with Bucky. I am unclear what to say about them at the moment, partially because I don't really understand what happened during day 1 about Trixie.

Gulzar and Akina hasn't talked at all, so I don't know what to say about them at the moment.

So basically in conclusion, I start to see some opposition in views of players and choosing who to agree and disagree with.

If I was to vote, it would be on BUCKY A. but seeing how town should lynch I wouldn't mind voting on TRIXIE either. I would like to hear some discussions on this first.

Although I am leaning towards Trixie right now, I do believe Bucky and Trixie are our two best options for lynching, and I would be willing to change my vote as long as we lynch one of them.

This is what i am referring to. If julie thinks trixie is scum she would not say this because why would you switch your lynch to bucky if you know trixie is scum. You didn't mention that trixie maybe villy in your reads.

Knowing that Trixie is scum and thinking that Trixie is scum are two totally different things. At the time, I believed Trixie and Bucky were the two scummiest players. I switched to Bucky because he got scummier and scummier to me as the day went on.

I have explained this before. I'm tired of repeating myself. You should probably read through a bit more, because I do explain my switch from Trixie to Bucky.

Can you don't say "read more" because i think you are questioning me over and over about the same issue. And in your reads, you didn't even mention trixie being town. This appears to be a confirmation bias as romeo said as opposed to bucky who you said maybe villy.

And the quote i quoted from you is directly below my reads list and the day hasn't progressed a lot yet so your "as day goes on" is null.

Ok, what? What does "read more" have anything to do with me questioning you on the same issue? What issue would this be?

Tbh you quesioned me way more than I do, and when i start to question you you said go read more i already posted in the past even though i never had that kind of attitude. I am always open to questions and clarification.

by Kazuki N. Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:34 am

What about we pause our discussion here and let others have a chance to discuss

by Julie C. Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:38 am

I agree. I still haven't gotten anything from you that proves or disproves you being mafia, but at least it has gotten you to talk more so we can get better reads on you.

by Tori P. Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:52 am

Are we forgetting about Akina E.? She's got one post. Literally, one. And that's her role confirmation.

by Julie C. Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:40 pm

Last visit : Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:16 pm

That was the last time Akina was on. Her last post was a few hours before that.

She never said that she would be gone for a few days. I'm not sure how long someone has to be inactive to be prodded. /me glances at aj

by Julie C. Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:46 pm

I see you online thar aj. How long does it take for someone to get prodded?

by **ajhockeystar** Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:58 pm

Votecount 3.2
*************************************
Trixie T.(0)-
Gulzar L.(0)-
Robert O.(0)-
Tori P.(0)-
Romeo M.(0)-
Akina E.(0)-
Kazuki N.(0)-
Julie C.(0)-
Not Voting(- Robert O., Akina E., Trixie T., Romeo M., Tori P., Kazuki N., Julie C., Gulzar L.
*************************************
There are 8 players alive so it takes 5 to hammer.
Deadline is Saturday the 16th at 9pm EST.

AJ's (late) tip of the day: If you go to the first post in the game and tap the Alive/Dead spoilers, you can access the ISOs of each player. ISOs show you all the posts of a certain user. It's much easier than having to look through all the posts in the game!

And Julie, I don't sub the person out if I see them in the room often. I also remind them to come on and post when they're in the room.

by Robert O. Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:36 pm

Tori P. wrote:Are we forgetting about Akina E.? She's got one post. Literally, one. And that's her role confirmation.

Nope we havent, well at least I havent becuase I did explain why I thought Akina E was the other ice mafia goon....

by Robert O. Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:46 pm

With the argument that just happened between Julie and Kazuki. It is logical that Kazuki is the ice maf since he read Castiller as town and Julie + Namiko as scum even though they both had the same reasons for lynching Bucky. But really, quite a lot of people thought Castiller was town. However this does open a few answers tho. It could be that Kazuki is scum...not neccesarily ice maf....but he tried to get on Castiller's good side (and other people's since, like I said, quite a lot of people thought he was town). He could also be ice maf trying to support Castiller as town as much as possible. Or he could have had a better impression on Castiller since she was more active overall (at the time) than Julie and Namiko. So yeah...i dont know

by Robert O. Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:47 pm

Antony V., the Vanilla Townie, was frozen to death.

Victor I., the Vanilla Townie, was burned to death.

This is really messing with my head, (I even asked AJ if this was correct lmao). Castiller killed Anthony, but why? It would make MUCH more sense if this was the other way round. If castiller killed Victor then it would make sense because Victor was hunting for lurkers. And if Anthony was burned to death it would make sense (for me at least) because Anthony went against Tori (who I think is fire maf). But not only the fact that the lynches dont make sense. They are the most unusual kills (assuming you are killing the target for a reason) that could have happened. (unless there is another reason that I am unaware of, the fire maf reason is more of what I think but the ice maf is a legit reason) Any other combination would be less unusal than this one. It's like it was agreed on, they killed off each other's burdens, and not to mention, it was extremely risky. For example, why did fire maf decide to kill Victor when ice maf's best kill was Victor? (other than Romeo) Which means it would risk a no kill day. The exact same thing for the other side happened, making it even MORE unusual. So yeah I am really confused.

by Gulzar L. Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:59 pm

Callister W. wrote:
ajhockeystar wrote:
Robert O. wrote:wait y was romeo subbed out he's been active?

Oh oops I worded that oddly. Lemme rephrase that...

@Romeo- Gulzar and Akina have already been subbed out.

Romeo M. wrote:Callister, any specific reasons you ignored Kazuki, Robert, Tori and I on that list? Have you townread the four of us at the moment?
If so, why have you townread Kazuki when he hasn't posted since the start of the game?

I didn't remember Kazuki, I was looking at that post ._.

As for you, I think mostly everyone the same opinion on you. If they didn't, they would have voiced out what they think.

As for Robert, I didn't really have much to say about him. He seems to be a supporter type, but (rereading his posts,) I would like to say that being a bad scumhunter is not a good excuse. I'm pretty sure there are tons of other people who are bad too and its time for you to hone your skills. =P

As for Tori, he was still acting how I thought he would act (at that time), town or so. However,

Tori P. wrote:Kazuki, good to have you active! vote bucky pls

seems to be pushing a lynch on Bucky (which you, Romeo, is also on). This is all a mess as Bucky did not respond to our queries (in 24 hours of his post), and the hint of tunnelling from Tori is scummy.

And since Robert had been subbed after the kills tonight, I doubt either of them are the ice mafia after what Callister said as well as story but I am leaning towards Kazuki being the ice mafia.

by Gulzar L. Thu Aug 14, 2014 5:03 pm

Also Robert, Callister most likely killed Antony to try to get tori killed so tori cannot be ice mafia plus with what I quoted in the above post.

by Gulzar L. Thu Aug 14, 2014 5:13 pm

Same thing goes for the fire mafia killing Victor to get Callister out of the way most probably or namiko and Victor seemed kinda uncontrollable as he was pretty stubborn.

by Gulzar L. Thu Aug 14, 2014 5:15 pm

To add to it, both of them were very active users so most likely so town cant lynch as Romeo said.

by Robert O. Thu Aug 14, 2014 5:38 pm

I know the 2 victims were active but I just feel that it is too much to be a coincidence....but then again if it wasnt a coincidence, what would it prove? So really I don't know. But i guess that is a possibility. I thought both of them were as stubborn as each other to be honest.

by Romeo M. Thu Aug 14, 2014 7:29 pm

Robert O. wrote:Antony V., the Vanilla Townie, was frozen to death.

Victor I., the Vanilla Townie, was burned to death.

This is really messing with my head, (I even asked AJ if this was correct lmao). Castiller killed Anthony, but why? It would make MUCH more sense if this was the other way round. If castiller killed Victor then it would make sense because Victor was hunting for lurkers. And if Anthony was burned to death it would make sense (for me at least) because Anthony went against Tori (who I think is fire maf). But not only the fact that the lynches dont make sense. They are the most unusual kills (assuming you are killing the target for a reason) that could have happened. (unless there is another reason that I am unaware of, the fire maf reason is more of what I think but the ice maf is a legit reason) Any other combination would be less unusal than this one. It's like it was agreed on, they killed off each other's burdens, and not to mention, it was extremely risky. For example, why did fire maf decide to kill Victor when ice maf's best kill was Victor? (other than Romeo) Which means it would risk a no kill day. The exact same thing for the other side happened, making it even MORE unusual. So yeah I am really confused.

Well, you know, that argument DOES center on Tori being the fire mafia, so perhaps Tori ISN'T one of the fire mafia?
If you're not willing to believe that, Gulzar's theory of Antony being killed to frame Tori makes sense (and pretty much solidifies that Tori is NOT the ice mafia, in my opinion). As for Victor dying, I think that all they were doing was targeting an active townie... that's what would make the most sense. The other possible option is that there were/are also lurkers in the fire mafia scumteam.

Gulzar L. wrote:Also Robert, Callister most likely killed Antony to try to get tori killed so tori cannot be ice mafia plus with what I quoted in the above post.

Just quoting the post I was referencing above.

Gulzar L. wrote:Same thing goes for the fire mafia killing Victor to get Callister out of the way most probably or namiko and Victor seemed kinda uncontrollable as he was pretty stubborn.

Not sure what Gulzar is saying here, unless he's saying that the fire mafia killed Victor to try and frame Callister/Namiko.

Robert O. wrote:I know the 2 victims were active but I just feel that it is too much to be a coincidence....but then again if it wasnt a coincidence, what would it prove? So really I don't know. But i guess that is a possibility. I thought both of them were as stubborn as each other to be honest.

I mean, Gulzar did bring up possible reasons (framing others) that could have caused the deaths of both Victor and Antony, but we'll never know what the actual reasons for killing them were until the end of the game... Also, what does them being stubborn have to do with them dying?

by Julie C. Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:13 pm

Gulzar L. wrote:
Callister W. wrote:
ajhockeystar wrote:
Robert O. wrote:wait y was romeo subbed out he's been active?

Oh oops I worded that oddly. Lemme rephrase that...

@Romeo- Gulzar and Akina have already been subbed out.

Romeo M. wrote:Callister, any specific reasons you ignored Kazuki, Robert, Tori and I on that list? Have you townread the four of us at the moment?
If so, why have you townread Kazuki when he hasn't posted since the start of the game?

I didn't remember Kazuki, I was looking at that post ._.

As for you, I think mostly everyone the same opinion on you. If they didn't, they would have voiced out what they think.

As for Robert, I didn't really have much to say about him. He seems to be a supporter type, but (rereading his posts,) I would like to say that being a bad scumhunter is not a good excuse. I'm pretty sure there are tons of other people who are bad too and its time for you to hone your skills. =P

As for Tori, he was still acting how I thought he would act (at that time), town or so. However,

Tori P. wrote:Kazuki, good to have you active! vote bucky pls

seems to be pushing a lynch on Bucky (which you, Romeo, is also on). This is all a mess as Bucky did not respond to our queries (in 24 hours of his post), and the hint of tunnelling from Tori is scummy.

And since Robert had been subbed after the kills tonight, I doubt either of them are the ice mafia after what Callister said as well as story but I am leaning towards Kazuki being the ice mafia.

Robert isn't clear from being ice mafia for being subbed after the kills, because Callister could've sent it.

by Gulzar L. Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:16 pm

But most likely and Callister went against him kinda and by stubborn I mean they would not be willing to change sides to get a lynch to get a mislynch but now that I think bout it, its not really a good reason as mafia would kill at night and still get a kill and the stubbornness might not help the town as well so I withdraw my stubbornness statement.

by Romeo M. Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:16 pm

Gulzar L. wrote:But most likely and Callister went against him kinda and by stubborn I mean they would not be willing to change sides to get a lynch to get a mislynch but now that I think bout it, its not really a good reason as mafia would kill at night and still get a kill and the stubbornness might not help the town as well so I withdraw my stubbornness statement.

How/when did Callister go against Robert?
I still don't understand what you mean by stubbornness ("to get a lynch to get a mislynch" doesn't make sense to me >_>) but since you retracted the statement, it doesn't matter.

by Gulzar L. Fri Aug 15, 2014 1:07 pm

As for Robert, I didn't really have much to say about him. He seems to be a supporter type, but (rereading his posts,) I would like to say that being a bad scumhunter is not a good excuse. I'm pretty sure there are tons of other people who are bad too and its time for you to hone your skills. =P (what Callister said but not really evidence so I withdraw that also lol, I overthink pretty much everything I guess)

by **ajhockeystar** Fri Aug 15, 2014 1:15 pm

Akina E. has been subbed out, a new user is now using the account. Smile

by Akina E. Fri Aug 15, 2014 1:40 pm

Hi I should be more active than the other person was. Can someone give me a summary of what happened?

by Romeo M. Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:42 pm

I'll quote what i posted for Trixie, give me a second.

by Romeo M. Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:46 pm

@Akina: Possible lynch scenarios:

Romeo M. wrote:
IF:
We don't lynch
Best-case scenario: Fire and Ice mafia crossfire. Tomorrow would be 1-5.
Worst-case: Fire and Ice mafia kill townies. Tomorrow would be 2-3-1.
Other cases:
Fire kills Ice, Ice kills townie. We would be at 2-4(mylo).
Ice kills Fire, Fire kills townie. We would be at 1-4-1.
Ice kills Fire, doc protects target of Fire. We would be at 1-5-1.
Fire kills Ice, doc protects target of Ice. We would be at 2-5.
Both aim for townies, doc protects one of the townies. We would be at 2-4-1.

We lynch a townie
Best-case scenario: Fire and Ice mafia crossfire. Tomorrow would be 1-4.
Worst-case: Fire and Ice mafia kill townies. Tomorrow would be 2-2-1.
Other cases:
Fire kills Ice, Ice kills townie. We would be at 2-3(lylo).
Ice kills Fire, Fire kills townie. We would be at 1-3-1.
Ice kills Fire, doc protects target of Fire. We would be at 1-5-1.
Fire kills Ice, doc protects target of Ice. We would be at 2-4.
Both aim for townies, doc protects one of the townies. We would be at 2-3-1.

We lynch the doctor
Best-case scenario: Fire and Ice mafia crossfire. Tomorrow would be 1-4.
Worst-case: Fire and Ice mafia kill townies. Tomorrow would be 2-2-1.
Other cases:
Fire kills Ice, Ice kills townie. We would be at 2-3(lylo).
Ice kills Fire, Fire kills townie. We would be at 1-3-1.

We lynch fire mafia
Best-case scenario: Fire and Ice mafia crossfire. Tomorrow would be 5 townies, auto-win.
Worst-case: Fire and Ice mafia kill townies. Tomorrow would be 1-3-1.
Other cases:
Fire kills Ice, Ice kills townie. We would be at 1-4.
Ice kills Fire, Fire kills townie. We would be at 3-1(mylo).
Ice kills Fire, doc protects target of Fire. We would be at 5-1.
Fire kills Ice, doc protects target of Ice. We would be at 1-5.
Both aim for townies, doc protects one of the townies. We would be at 1-4-1.

We lynch ice mafia
Best-case scenario: Fire targets a townie, but doc protects. Tomorrow would be 2-5.
Worst-case: Fire kills a townie. Tomorrow would be 2-4(mylo).

I think I did that right. Not lynching gives us more possibilities that are good (although lynching fire mafia does as well, it would be hard to figure out who the two fire mafia are and thus we would probably end up mislynching, leading to a scenario that is less desirable).

As of right now, most of us agree that no lynching is probably the best option, and lynching one of the fire mafia would be the second-best option(some people have different opinions on this, though)

by Romeo M. Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:48 pm

@Akina, here's everything that happened up until this day.

Romeo M. wrote:
Gulzar L. wrote:So I'm Gulzar 2.0 or the new sub confirming. Jus got my password and name today and will be checking the conversations and stuff to see what has been going on around here so yeah unless someone wants to sum it up to me in a nutshell that would be really nice and as well if u guys want to post ur previous feedback or opinions to me, that would jus be amazing so I don't have to surf around this thread all day .

Quite a bit of stuff has happened thus far, i'll do my best to summarize but I recommend you skim over everything said as well so that you can form your own ideas of what has happened (because my summary will be from my viewpoint, meaning that some things will be biased and/or wrong, although I will do my best to keep that to a minimum).
Day 1 began, Kazuki, Julie, and Trixie posted once(not all immediately of course), while Victor, Antony, Tori, and I essentially lead the conversation. Tori lynched me to reaction test and also had a feeling I could be mafia because I was trying to start discussion, and he said that some scum start discussion to feel out the strong players and he believed that I was one of those. He unlynched later, saying that he was laying off but not removing all suspicion off of me. Antony was relatively suspicious of Tori, because the post where he lynched me was immediately after a post that townread me. Antony tried to get us to vote off Tori, but nobody really followed it because we all saw Tori as town. Later, I began to complain about the fact that we had a lot of lurkers and Victor went to work, discovering that Namiko and (later) Callister had been lurking. He started a lynch on Namiko that both Tori and Antony followed, since we wanted to lynch inactive townies, but Namiko showed up after those votes were cast and brought up Trixie's one post, which seemed to be trying to shift attention onto Tori and make him seem like he was mafia. Due to this, she lynched Trixie and I, also thinking that this was a valid point in addition to the fact that Trixie had been lurking while Namiko had begun to post, also lynched Trixie. The day ended with a no lynch, with 3 votes on Namiko and 2 votes on Trixie.

In the night, aj put the deadline off a whole day, whereupon Victor and I complained quite a bit about it, but the day eventually started and it was revealed that Victor and Antony had been killed by the two mafia factions. Immediately, I noticed that they were targeting active townies and complained that with this, there wouldn't even be enough people to lynch. I believe around this point Robert was subbed into a new user; this Robert hasn't shown up after the beginning of Day 2. I believe Julie showed up and began to contribute, and in an attempt to spur discussion, I voted Bucky. Namiko soon voted Trixie afterwards, and a new user subbed in for Kazuki. Bucky came out in response to my post and said something along the lines of "don't lynch me i'm a vanilla townie." This seemed pretty suspicious and somewhat forced, since everyone is going to claim vanilla townie in this gamemode. Soon after this, Tori voted for Bucky due to the reasoning I said above and I believe Callister came on and posted her reads on the four people I had mentioned. In that post, she lynched Trixie. Sometime around this post, Julie also lynched Trixie. Later, Bucky posted again saying he understood the criticism and said that he was having trouble with the forums. A lot of us pushed Bucky to contribute, but he essentially refused to do so. I believe after a couple posts of this, Kazuki voted Bucky, Julie unvoted Trixie and voted Bucky (as we have pretty much agreed we want someone to get lynched, since the vote is our weapon). Bucky pointed out Julie's vote-switch and called it scummy. Callister also unvoted Trixie and voted Bucky after Bucky and I (incorrectly) stated that she had bandwagoned onto Bucky, as we both had misinterpreted what Julie said in response to Bucky's post. I believe somewhere near the end of what I just typed was a point where I brought up the possibility of a Trixie + Bucky scumteam.

Ok, I summarized what has happened the best I could, but I still recommend you read the whole thing just in case I messed anything up (which I probably did, no way i'm remembering everything that happened thus far perfectly).

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