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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Victor W. wrote:
Shingo E. wrote:
Victor W. wrote:you shouldn't be talking about things relevant to your game in ours until yours is over.
You eliminated the wws because their skill level was equivalent to the skill level of the two mafia we lynched (Shingo's a good player, Eliza was lazy/busy, Zach was too paranoid).

Aw, you're too kind. :3
I'd basically given up by Day 2...

Heh.
Hey, of the three of your partners, the only person who suspected you before it was almost mandatory to do so was me(iirc), so there's that.

I had a bet going with myself that I wouldn't win.
I lost.
by Shingo E.
on Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:44 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Victor W. wrote:You hear that, all of town sans Momoko?
You aren't a threat.
How do you FEEL about that?

They may not have been a threat, but the mafia were! Spoooooky mafiaaaaa!
by Shingo E.
on Sun Sep 13, 2015 5:08 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Victor W. wrote:you shouldn't be talking about things relevant to your game in ours until yours is over.
You eliminated the wws because their skill level was equivalent to the skill level of the two mafia we lynched (Shingo's a good player, Eliza was lazy/busy, Zach was too paranoid).

Aw, you're too kind. :3
I'd basically given up by Day 2...
by Shingo E.
on Sun Sep 13, 2015 5:03 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

My mafia partners still haven't said anything.
Come on guys. Don't leave me here by myself. Sad
by Shingo E.
on Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:11 pm
 
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Also, Victor, just because your wife got endgamed and your daughter disappeared, didn't mean you had to run away with Kyle and become a WW. Your son is still out there! What would he think about having a WW Dad?!
by Shingo E.
on Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:56 am
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Man, I'm gonna miss Shingo. I love that name.
The avatar creeps me out, though
by Shingo E.
on Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:53 am
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

The activity sure picked up now.
Well, when reading through the final game page, I thought Moe might have been scum based on the aggressiveness of his last post.
It wouldn't have been enough evidence for me to have wanted to lynch him, though. I've had issues with people who are just aggressive in the past, and I've thought they were scum for it. Plus, I liked Moe. Sad it's not even like I would have ever said that that feeling was anything more than me just being paranoid. In many ways, I think I'm just saying this to try and feel slightly better about how that went.
Anyway, my reads list was perfect? y/y
by Shingo E.
on Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:48 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Emily's not exactly my biggest fan. Somehow I don't exactly see why she'd be paired with me, unless you're implying that she's thought ahead, like, ten moves. Right now, Emily's looking like a solid lynch choice for today, to me at least, and she probably feels the same way about me. She seemed taken aback by my lack of reaction to her Day 1 lynch, but I didn't realise it was supposed to be a reaction lynch. It honestly just seemed like an RL.
She also keeps jumping between me being either Mafia or WW. Like, that's understandable and all, but it's still a pain.

Honestly, I think it makes more logical sense to say that I'm paired with Moe, since at one point in one post I said I liked his playing style.
Personally I don't pick at straws, but it's at least understandable why people are doing it in this situation. I guess.
I feel like I didn't answer the question.
by Shingo E.
on Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:43 pm
 
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

I've been having technological difficulties again, so sorry about that. I was basically being given every single post as one big long paragraph, so I had no idea who was saying what, and I was also unable to reply. I'm back with actual technology now though, so I should be back up and running soon.
I hate pointless posts. ;-;
by Shingo E.
on Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:15 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Victor W. wrote:Victor W.
Kiyo H.
Kyle L.
Emily R.
Shingo E.
Moe P.
-Stolen from AJs D1 post.

We're in a pretty terrible situation right now. As Shingo said, we need to lynch a ww today or we lose. I doubt nling is a good idea since the only person it's going to help is the mafia (assuming they don't get nightkilled, which is something unlikely). If we nl, it's almost certain that the werewolves will go for one of the three townies (who I currently believe are myself, Kyle, and Kiyo).

That leaves the last three scum to be Shingo, Emily, and Moe.
Emily is almost certainly not mafia just based on the way she went for Eliza and stayed on her until she was lynched.
Therefore, by process of elimination (which i'll admit isn't the best method), she has to be a werewolf.
I'm not sure who the final mafia is between Shingo and Moe. I honestly thought it was The Hunter.
Lynch Emily

NOBODY ELSE GET ON THIS LYNCH UNTIL WE HAVE DECIDED A LYNCH TARGET.
If I am wrong and Emily is not ww + another townie/ the mafia lynches Emily as well, the wws can quickhammer this lynch and we lose. I'm just keeping my vote on the person I think is likeliest to be werewolf.

NLing would raise the percentage chance of lynching a WW by 10%, making it a 50% chance for each non WW. Granted, it would also mean that any lynch would be quickhammerable, and would allow the WWs to manipulate the vote more. If I'm honest, I initially only thought about the percentage.
Just like what Moe asked, I'm curious as to why Kyle and Kiyo aren't seen as being WWs in your list. I can understand why you haven't put yourself on there, because nobody really wants to analyse their posts to prove whether they're a WW or not, but why not Kyle and Kiyo? You said that you would explain why if need be, so I'd just like to know.
To me it just feels like it would be better to consider every possibility, rather than assuming that your scumreads are 100% accurate.
by Shingo E.
on Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:01 am
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

ajhockeystar wrote:You can NL if you wish. I would've said so if you weren't allowed Razz

Darn you AJ, and your tricky business of leaving it really vague, but still leaving it off of your Votecounts.
by Shingo E.
on Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:49 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Is it just me, or did the player list just decrease dramatically?
Right, so basically today, the WWs will win if we don't lynch one of them. That may feel like a tight corner, but there's a fairly high chance to lynch one (40% for each non WW). Lynching mafia or town today is an immediate loss, while if we NL, we would still get another day (I think. I've looked over the rules, and it says nothing about not being able to NL, but AJ isn't including an NL vote in his Votecounts, so I'm not sure on that front. Chances are that you can't NL).
So, it's just a case of trying to find a pairing of scum (or NLing if that turns out to be a possibility).
by Shingo E.
on Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:38 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

The Hunter wrote:oh uh oops, didn't know lol, should i just edit them back out and post them?

I'm starting to doubt that it's appeal to emotion, largely due to how confused The Hunter seems about so many things. I mean, it could still be an appeal to emotion, since we don't know if he's new to these games or not. It could always just be an act. Man I feel bad for suggesting that.
by Shingo E.
on Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:11 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

The Hunter wrote:Reads:

Otoshi F. - At first they tried to spur up a lynch on me near the beginning of the game, (before everyone thought i looked super scummy). This wasn't taken very well by the rest of the participants, and since then they've taken a much more passive role of agreeing with other town members and injecting a little filler into the conversation now and then. (I know I haven't done much, but I've tried to keep filler to a minimum).

Victor W. - I feel Victor is Town, he's been the start of and the head of a lot of useful discussion during the days and led to our two scum lynches, therefore I don't think it's bussing, but you never know, eh? (People will probably view this as me trying to get town on my side for a last ditch attempt not to die; but it's not the case).

Kyle L. - He's been very active in the game, I can't say the same for myself but if you look closely quite a few of his posts are filler. Also consider this "I know I'm townie but Victor and Kiyo could still be mafia bussing partner." I can't recall whether he's confirmed or not, but if not this would arise some suspicion, no? He seems experienced in Forum Mafia, and I'm pretty sure saying "I know I'm townie" without being confirmed isn't a good statement.

Eliza L. - Eliza has been pretty much the same as me, she hasn't been as active so it's harder to get a real read on her, after I die you should push her to contribute a little more in order to determine her allegiance.

Shingo E. - I don't have time to go through the full set of posts again for him, but I get a slight feeling of town-lead scum from him, he's very over-enthusiastic, which to me gives an indication that he's town leading as scum(obviously I could be wrong; and probably am).

Momoko D. - I think she could be WW, she sort of "fades" into the background until something exciting happens, her other posts are basically reiterating what's been discussed previously without actually building upon these ideas.

posting those now; will edit more in once they're ready, if I die before then, good luck! Razz

Yeah, Eliza and Momoko sure haven't said much since they died.
by Shingo E.
on Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:59 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Victor W. wrote:
Otoshi F. wrote:You remind me of me shingo, you really do

Does he remind you of you when you play as scum, or when you play as town?

I just assumed he meant in terms of reads. Damn Victor, always with the stuff that I miss. Although, this is a question I'd like answered as well.
by Shingo E.
on Sun Aug 30, 2015 8:38 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Victor W. - He seems to want discussions to be started, which is to be expected in forum mafia. As I've said before, his thing with Kyle doesn't actually seem to impact on their playstyle or views or anything. It's just shameless flirting. Only time they really did the same thing because of it was when they lynched Zach at the start of Day 1, and that was intended to be a reaction lynch, to which he reacted badly, got lynched, and was mafia. It does kinda bother me that Victor keeps going on about my soft defense of Zach when I would have said "Guys, don't lynch so quickly because if he's seer then claiming will screw him over" regardless of who it was, but I guess that's life. He did say that it was surprising that I'd taken the lynch seriously, which is a sentence I don't really like, but I think that's more because of the word choice than anything. Like... If he'd been seer, he would have been screwed. That's the entire reason I was cautious and took it seriously. That's it.
The thing is though, Victor focusing on that tiny detail so strongly actually makes me think that he's a town that's really good at analysing the situation. Most people would be like "OK, he defended it. Good enough for me.", but Victor's acting more like "It still happened, and I'm not gonna forget it. We need everything we can get". So yeah, as weird as it no doubt seems, I have Victor as a strong town read.

Otoshi F. - Fillers a lot, isn't WW. Honestly, no matter what he is, WW'll probably kill him tonight. Regardless of what he is, he's not any real threat to town right now, so I'll just leave him alone. Although, he has an interesting thing going with The Hunter, where The Hunter won't justify a point he made about Otoshi defending Zach, nor will he even admit it was a mistake. Interesting.

Kiyo H. - Made a post directed at Eliza, and was fairly aggressive in it. Wasn't exactly "tunneling" on her or anything, like other people thought, since it was just once message, but it still got her point across. I wasn't a big fan of her reasoning in the message where she actually lynched Eliza, but maybe that's just me. I feel like she was over-exaggerating the stuff she actually wanted to say versus what Eliza actually said, but Eliza was mafia, so I guess I can't really complain. Just... Some of that bs reasoning better not return. .-.
Anyway, I don't think Kiyo's mafia. It seems a bit weird for mafia to only focus on one of their teammates and then not say much else, especially after the first one was lynched, you'd think mafia would have done more to prevent Eliza's lynch. That being said, I'm actually slightly unsure of Kiyo at the moment. Could be town or WW with how much she focused on that one person that turned out to be mafia. Not really enough posts for me to gauge whether she just isn't buddying with anyone, or whether she just hasn't done it yet.

Kyle L. - Lynched Zach like he promised he would. However, Kyle suggested that we hypo, which was a pretty good strategy that I doubt a WW would suggest, unless they were trying to make themselves seem not like a WW, mindgames etc. As far as I'm concerned though, that gives him +1 town point.
Sadly, nobody said anything about WW insects. WW insects oooooh.
Anyway, he also wanted an active game. He stated Zach's paranoia, which was definitely there. Because of his focus on Zach, I find it difficult to believe that Kyle is the last mafia. But, that could still just be bussing. What really makes me think he's not the next mafia is the fact he went after Eliza the next day. Could just be really hardcore bussing, but I severely doubt it. Once again though, I can't tell if he's town or a WW, as both would want mafia lynched. However, I do feel like a WW wouldn't draw this much attention to themselves, so I'm leaning much more towards town than WW with Kyle.

Emily R. - Her initial post was a bit filler-y, but it at least had some information in it about her views on Kyle. The reason I didn't feel any need to comment on her lynch on me was because it felt really random, and I kinda thought there'd be some more explanation at some point later, but I guess it was just a reaction test and I went all noble gas on it. :/
Apparently no reaction was good enough for her though, which is... Weird. I would've thought there would have been more questions at the time as to my lack of reaction, but I guess not. Of course, she did also say that she sometimes finds it difficult to convey her feelings, so I guess I can understand and relate to that. Sometimes I don't get my point across as well as I'd like. Her reasoning for lynching Eliza seems a little random, but she did at least say that it was pretty much just random, due to statistics. She then lynched Eliza again Day 2, this time at least saying that she felt Eliza was the scummiest person Day 1.
I'm not sure how to feel about her analysis on my post. Sure, a lot of it was obvious, but I'd actually already said that it was obvious before she did. She wasn't particularly saying anything new right there, which is something she criticised me on in that very post. Also, I'm seriously really sure that nobody else mentioned that we should get the WW first, so I don't know if she just pulled that out of nowhere, or if I just still can't find it. It's more likely that I just missed it, though. While I feel that Victor actually had a valid point that he's sticking with something barely noticeable, I actually feel like Emily's clutching at straws right now. If anything, she could actually be that last mafia trying to get something beneficial done. Now it feels like I'm clutching at straws.
So, I don't have anything close to a strong town read from her, but she also doesn't really give me much of a scummy vibe. I'm actually quite neutral towards her.

Shingo E. - Not gonna say anything about myself because I personally find it weird when people do that.

The Hunter - My personal lynch choice for today. I feel like The Hunter saying "Oh, it's my first forum game, that's why I suck" is an appeal to emotion. He just wants us to feel bad and not lynch him. Granted, appeal to emotion is usually a last resort, but that doesn't mean he's not trying it out. Like, almost all of his recent posts have just been appeal to emotion.
However, I'm not gonna lynch him yet because I want to hear what he has to say on the subject. I think it's more likely that he's Mafia than WW though, due to the appeal to emotion. Could always just be a town, in which case I'll kinda feel bad.

Moe P. - I really like some of Moe's analysis on things. He's also really eager for my reads, which is likely because he doesn't have all too much information about me, and he wants to be able to analyse me better. I can't help but like this guy's playing style. Also, he lynched me, but I'm pretty sure it was to pressure me to give out these reads, meaning his lynch was actually making sure he was able to get his information and make further analysis. I personally think he's town, but I guess he could also be a WW trying to find that final mafia. Strong town lean for me, though.

Sorry if there's not as much detail as people had hoped for.
by Shingo E.
on Sun Aug 30, 2015 4:49 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Moe P. wrote:
Victor W. wrote:Ah, gotcha.
So are Kyle and I your top scum or were you just saying that we could still be scumteamed with other people?


I have no top scum right now, its just that the pairs i mentioned have connections to each other, in some way or another. If anything, I'm just highlighting for others if they have a scum read on any one in the pairs, to look at the other person I mentioned and consider if they would fit well on a scumteam together.

I am leaning towards either Shingo, Hunter, or possibly Emily. The first 2 have promised reads, and I'm still waiting for them. And Emily, she just "took a guess" at Eliza day 1. Turns out she was right, but never really backed up her reads too much. It's sort of the same with Kiyo, if I really think about it: Random lynch on Zach to start, then a lynch because Eliza never followed up on her "reads". Granted, the reactions of both were scummy. It's still possible that Kiyo could be a WW buddy with someone.

All in all, I'm down with lynching Shingo until further notice.

lynch Shingo

I'm back with technology that's capable, so you shall get your reads soon enough. I just have some stuff to do right now that takes top priority, but I'll get them done tonight.
by Shingo E.
on Sun Aug 30, 2015 1:45 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Victor W. wrote:Interested to see why you think Otoshi's mafia.
Also, if Shingo's ww #1, who's his partner? I don't think finding one person as a ww is as useful if we can't figure out a partner for them; if they're scummy, they may just be the final mafia.

@Moe: Kyle and I have lynched together once, calm yourself. Why haven't you mentioned Kyle and I other than in the situation where we are scumteamed? Is it impossible for us to be teamed with anyone else?

This is something I've wanted to mention for a while, but there hasn't really been a good place to say it. It's also pretty much stopped now, so it's probably irrelevant. :/
But, even though Kyle and Victor used to shamelessly flirt and show public displays of affection, they never really teamed up, or defended each other, or anything. It was always a sort of joking thing, so I unless I missed something really vital, you can't really use shameless flirting as evidence.
by Shingo E.
on Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:28 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Emily R. wrote:
Shingo E. wrote:Well, that kinda sucks. At least we have one person confirmed as not WW, and given the amount of mafia left (ie 1), the chances of him being anything other than a vanilla townie are slim. Of course, WW might always just kill him tonight. :/
We have little to no actual evidence to work with just now, so I'm pretty sure scumhunting is the best way forward right now. It's also a better plan to try and go after the WWs first, I think, since they're more threatening to town just now, and there's still always a chance that WWs might kill the final mafia.
Of course, if it ends up that people have a strong mafia lead and almost no WW lead, then it's still good to get rid of the final mafia, as they will become a threat if left unchecked.


Firstly, I just want to explain that I believe Otoshi to be the mafia, that is why I refer Shingo as the WW.
Anyways, let's begin.

I think this post is pretty much a repeat of obvious stuff or what everyone has said. For example, of course we should scumhunting and someone already mentioned that we should get the WW first. In general, it did not contribute much and the fact that he did not react to my lynch day 1 makes me think it's a little scummy, but of course it is a very light hunch and I will not lynch him just yet.

Eh, it is just obvious stuff, yeah. I even said that in my next post. But if anyone said we should go after the WWs first, I missed that, and that was really the main point of my post; I thought that bit was new information. Also, since it was my viewpoint and may not be shared by everyone, I thought I should get it out there so that people can see my viewpoint.
Also, I fail to recall why at the present moment, but I didn't feel the need to comment on your lynch. If I had the technological capabilities to check why in less than ten minutes, then I would check, but I can't right now, so sorry about that. I just know that I didn't feel the need to comment on it.
by Shingo E.
on Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:21 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Moe P. wrote:Well, that reveal made it easier for me to find ww teams...

I was going to say that Kiyo + Otoshi could have been a good WW team, except Otoshi can't be ww so... yeah.

There's the obvious Kyle + Victor ww team, however unlikely that may be. They've been buddy buddy since day 1 and have practically lynched as one person for the whole game.

That leaves a bunch of stragglers, namely Emily, Hunter, Shingo.

Possible that there's a Kiyo + Hunter ww team, Kiyo has been pretty much leading the lynches thus far, and on mafia too. There's not much connection other than the cross-inspection during the hypo claims yesterday, especially since they both don't talk much.

And finally that leaves Emily + Shingo, again, there isn't much of a relation because it's only Emily's 'reaction' lynch onto Shingo day 1, then rescinding it and not pressing further.

All in all, those are just the people with connections to each other. There isn't much to go on aside from the fact that we're not lynching Otoshi for a while. I do want to hear everyone's reads, especially Shingo's that he promised before deadline. As well, Emily + Hunter + Kiyo could talk more so we can get some decent reads on you three.

Everyone should really give reads before deadline. #Shingo'sReadsHype doesn't need to be a thing. :/
Unless you just meant because you wanted some information out of me, in which case I guess I can approve #ShingoHype as a thing.
by Shingo E.
on Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:07 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Kyle L. wrote:Now that I think about it. It's best to do this old school. Everyone post your read list and who you want lynched today.

I'm not able to do one at the moment, due to technology limitations. I'd prefer to analyse each post, and that'd just be a pain for me at the moment. However, I'll get a reads list out a couple of days before deadline, so it's not like I'm going to try stalling.
by Shingo E.
on Sat Aug 29, 2015 11:53 am
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Game 17: Jungle Republic

Otoshi F. wrote:I will have a lot of time to do reads in 2 days time so expect them, but for now Shingo why would you say that, it's just going to remind the WW that I'm either Mafia goon or confirmed townie, so is this tbh. NOOOOO am gonna die

I actually thought it was way too obvious a thing for me to have said. WW should really already know that you can't be a WW. x.x
by Shingo E.
on Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:36 am
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
Replies: 557
Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Well, that kinda sucks. At least we have one person confirmed as not WW, and given the amount of mafia left (ie 1), the chances of him being anything other than a vanilla townie are slim. Of course, WW might always just kill him tonight. :/
We have little to no actual evidence to work with just now, so I'm pretty sure scumhunting is the best way forward right now. It's also a better plan to try and go after the WWs first, I think, since they're more threatening to town just now, and there's still always a chance that WWs might kill the final mafia.
Of course, if it ends up that people have a strong mafia lead and almost no WW lead, then it's still good to get rid of the final mafia, as they will become a threat if left unchecked.
by Shingo E.
on Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:23 am
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

I felt like it'd be a smarter move to only comment when I actually have something to say, as opposed to making filler posts all the time. Technically someone could use that as a reason for never talking, but I don't plan on doing that. I just don't want to say something unless it'll actually be of any help whatsoever.
by Shingo E.
on Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:20 am
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
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Views: 11085

Game 17: Jungle Republic

Moe P. wrote:So Eliza, you got them reads?

and as far as the "zach would flip town" thing, I don't think that's indicative of anything.

I'd also like to know why Kiyo thinks Otoshi isn't the best lynch. Not saying I think he is, I would probably lynch Shingo, Hunter, or Emily right now (maybe Kiyo and Eliza too). I'd just like to hear them speak more.

I just feel like I can't really add anything. I've been paying attention and looking for a chance to say something, but I'd just end up fillering most of the time, and there's no point in that.
But yeah, I'm pretty sure the "Zach would flip town" thing was more a case of "Knowing our luck..." than a case of "This is definitely what will happen!".
by Shingo E.
on Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:28 pm
 
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Topic: Game 17: Jungle Republic
Replies: 557
Views: 11085

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