Game 17: Jungle Republic

Im going to look back to see if i can find scumtells from Emily/partnertells to either Moe or Shingo.

Emily R. wrote:I believe Kyle to be town because suggesting to hypo seems like a townie thing to do.

Some random (keyword: random) things I notice:

Momoko's grandma seems to be Sakie H. from Game 13 iirc
and Victor's background reminds me of Neji's 64 palms jutsu thing

Anyways, I believe I will
Lynch Shingo

Cool, so she random lynches Shingo here, and as I said before, scum like to RL their partners so there isn't much of a bad reaction; however, I was wrong in the only example we have of this in this game (Zachary --> The Hunter)

Emily R. wrote:I'm really sorry that I did not contribute much during this first day. I have been very busy in real life, and also I really don't know how to start discussion on day 1. Usually when I play mafia, I wait for someone to start a discussion then I contribute with my opinions. As the game progress, there will be more discussions that I can participate in. Also, I am quite a newbie at playing forum mafia so hopefully you guys understand I promise I will contribute more.

Since I do have some free time right now, I will

UL Shingo

because of the lack of reaction to my lynch. (not sure if he missed my lynch or did not care to question why I did so) I do not mind a lynch on Zachary - I was looking back on other forum games and the townie people lynched Day 1 were usually like "Yeah whatever, lynch me idc". Thus, I am not really sure if Zachary is a townie or not.

I don't really know why, but Eliza A. seems a bit scummy from her reactions. Sometimes I don't really know how to convey my feelings, but it's just the tone of the message that leads me to believe so. Of course this depends on the person, so I am fine with you guys not understanding me and needing quotes. Hopefully I can better develop my opinions over the next few days.

I do want to lynch someone in order to get some points, but I really don't know who yet. But since this game has a 50% chance of a scum lynch, I guess I'll

lynch Eliza.

I want to wish Seer the best of luck in finding the werewolves tonight!

Just quoting this because she slightly FOSes Zachary and FOSes Eliza; if she was mafia, she'd have no reason to FOS both her partners D1.

Emily R. wrote:Eliza did not contribute much today, and I don't see why I should not continue my lynch from yesterday.

Lynch Eliza

This may seems like a bandwagon, but I already thought that Eliza was the scummiest yesterday and she has done nothing today that prove to me she is town(ier).

Honestly Otoshi seems a bit scummy too but I just want to see how Eliza would react now with 3 lynch on her

Just continuing up on my point and showing that it makes no sense for Emily to be mafia.

Emily R. wrote:I was really happy when I found out that Eliza was mafia because it seems like every time I lynch I always get villy but when I have a hunch and don't lynch they turn out to be mafia so yayyyyy.

Anyways, I have a slight hunch on Shingo as the WW and I'll explain why in my next post.

Going in on Shingo again.....

Emily R. wrote:

Shingo E. wrote:Well, that kinda sucks. At least we have one person confirmed as not WW, and given the amount of mafia left (ie 1), the chances of him being anything other than a vanilla townie are slim. Of course, WW might always just kill him tonight. :/
We have little to no actual evidence to work with just now, so I'm pretty sure scumhunting is the best way forward right now. It's also a better plan to try and go after the WWs first, I think, since they're more threatening to town just now, and there's still always a chance that WWs might kill the final mafia.
Of course, if it ends up that people have a strong mafia lead and almost no WW lead, then it's still good to get rid of the final mafia, as they will become a threat if left unchecked.

Firstly, I just want to explain that I believe Otoshi to be the mafia, that is why I refer Shingo as the WW.
Anyways, let's begin.

I think this post is pretty much a repeat of obvious stuff or what everyone has said. For example, of course we should scumhunting and someone already mentioned that we should get the WW first. In general, it did not contribute much and the fact that he did not react to my lynch day 1 makes me think it's a little scummy, but of course it is a very light hunch and I will not lynch him just yet.

She's casting some shade on Shingo here, yet she seems to not want to vote him at all. This isn't too relevant yet, but wait till what happens later....

Emily R. wrote:(Please note that this read list maybe completely wrong, but it is an accurate representation of my opinions and in no way should not be fully responsible for the outcome of the lynch/game)

Right now I have:

Shingo as Mafia: Shingo didn't lynch Zachary or Eliza, and also seem, to me at least, to try to stay kinda neutral towards the lynch on Zachary but kinda discouraging it at the same time. He didn't quote any of Zach's posts until the end of day which I think is an attempt to try to earn town's trust since many people questioned him. As for Eliza, he didn't much - not really supporting or discouraging again. He was also my scum read for the first half of day, so I believe he is the mafia.

As for the werewolf, I believe it is a process of elimination. I think Moe and Kyle are clear towns for me. That leaves, Otoshi, Victor, Kiyo, and The Hunter. The reasons I don't think it is The Hunter is that he seems to be oblivious of Eliza and Momoko's death. He may be pretending, but assuming he isn't, if he was ww, he would know that Momoko died. Otoshi is, as everyone said, filler city and I don't know how to feel about it. Victor does contribute quite a lot, but nothing really stands out to me as overly townie. Kiyo posts sporadically and basically is just lynching without much reasoning except for Eliza. For now, I can see a Kiyo/Victor or The Hunter scum team. I am sorry if my werewolf reads are not conclusive, but since none has died it is extremely hard to get a good read.

So this post here is stating that Shingo is a mafia read, and that Otoshi is a possible werewolf? That's a switch from her last contentful post (she had 2-3 posts about how she would make readslists in between those two, but that's not scummy, IRL takes priority over mafia) which I find surprising.

Emily R. wrote:

Victor W. wrote:Reasoning for linking Kiyo and I together instead of Kiyo and The Hunter / me and the Hunter?

Well I said it could be Kiyo and you or Kiyo and The Hunter. Firstly, I don't think the Hunter is a werewolf. The only reasons I list him there is because Kiyo is acting like he's trying to save The Hunter, which the only logical explanation would be they are mafia. Thus, if The Hunter is werewolf, I believe his partner must be Kiyo. However, Kiyo can be partner with you or The Hunter, if you get what I mean.

Alright, so since The Hunter has been lynched, do you believe the werewolves are definitely me and Kiyo?

Cool, so for Emily's partner:
It's Shingo if Emily was bussing, which is entirely possible since Emily went after Shingo slightly but didn't actually try to hard to get him lynched - something that's the opposite of her lynch on Eliza.
It's Moe if Emily was trying to not interact with her partner at all aside from townreading him.

I believe Kiyo and Kyle are townies for reasons that I can explain if need be, so feel free to ask if you want any clarification.

BTW, this part's directed at the mafia goon: if you're about to be lynched, claim so you don't get lynched and lose the game for both us and you.

RIP in pieces, ah well, good luck town, make the right choice

What takes Kiyo/Kyle/yourself off of the WW list?

Yourself aside, what about the possibilities of Kiyo being ww, or Kyle for that matter?

Yes, Kiyo has practically led the lynches on 2 mafia so far. But there's still the chance he's WW.

Kyle as well, he was on both Zach & Eliza, though he was also on Hunter lol.

Regardless, please do tell us why you think both Kyle & Kiyo are off your WW list.

Victor W. wrote:Victor W.
Kiyo H.
Kyle L.
Emily R.
Shingo E.
Moe P.
-Stolen from AJs D1 post.

We're in a pretty terrible situation right now. As Shingo said, we need to lynch a ww today or we lose. I doubt nling is a good idea since the only person it's going to help is the mafia (assuming they don't get nightkilled, which is something unlikely). If we nl, it's almost certain that the werewolves will go for one of the three townies (who I currently believe are myself, Kyle, and Kiyo).

That leaves the last three scum to be Shingo, Emily, and Moe.
Emily is almost certainly not mafia just based on the way she went for Eliza and stayed on her until she was lynched.
Therefore, by process of elimination (which i'll admit isn't the best method), she has to be a werewolf.
I'm not sure who the final mafia is between Shingo and Moe. I honestly thought it was The Hunter.
Lynch Emily

NOBODY ELSE GET ON THIS LYNCH UNTIL WE HAVE DECIDED A LYNCH TARGET.
If I am wrong and Emily is not ww + another townie/ the mafia lynches Emily as well, the wws can quickhammer this lynch and we lose. I'm just keeping my vote on the person I think is likeliest to be werewolf.

NLing would raise the percentage chance of lynching a WW by 10%, making it a 50% chance for each non WW. Granted, it would also mean that any lynch would be quickhammerable, and would allow the WWs to manipulate the vote more. If I'm honest, I initially only thought about the percentage.
Just like what Moe asked, I'm curious as to why Kyle and Kiyo aren't seen as being WWs in your list. I can understand why you haven't put yourself on there, because nobody really wants to analyse their posts to prove whether they're a WW or not, but why not Kyle and Kiyo? You said that you would explain why if need be, so I'd just like to know.
To me it just feels like it would be better to consider every possibility, rather than assuming that your scumreads are 100% accurate.

" Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown"

If we nl town cannot win unless wws kill mafia THIS night
Lynch Emily

Kiyo, I would prefer if you elaborate on your lynches. Also, didn't Victor just said NO ONE LYNCH???????????? Rushing to lynch anybody doesn't help right now. ._. Anyways, i would like to know why Victor thinks Kiyo is clean (Kyle i understand but an explanation would still be nice).

Emily R. wrote:Kiyo, I would prefer if you elaborate on your lynches. Also, didn't Victor just said NO ONE LYNCH???????????? Rushing to lynch anybody doesn't help right now. ._. Anyways, i would like to know why Victor thinks Kiyo is clean (Kyle i understand but an explanation would still be nice).

For those who do not yet think that Emily is scum: Just read this one more time.

And yet has not provided info on why you lynch me.

Honestly to me it's like

1) Kiyo disobeyed Victor, I said wtf???? and I'm wrong.

2) Have you posted why I am scum?

3) Can I not defend myself at all because this is a crucial day yet you hastily lynch and I can't be like wtf??? because thay seems scummy to you.

/me rant over and will have actual discussion when on com

Kiyo, do me a huge favor and unlynch. If i'm wrong and Emily isn't werewolf, we lose if the two werewolves are online to coordinate a quickhammer.
Responding to moe's post in a bit.

Moe P. wrote:What takes Kiyo/Kyle/yourself off of the WW list?

Yourself aside, what about the possibilities of Kiyo being ww, or Kyle for that matter?

Yes, Kiyo has practically led the lynches on 2 mafia so far. But there's still the chance he's WW.

Kyle as well, he was on both Zach & Eliza, though he was also on Hunter lol.

Regardless, please do tell us why you think both Kyle & Kiyo are off your WW list.

Ok, we can establish that Kyle and Kiyo are not mafia, yes?
I think Kyle is town/not WW not only for his play but also because he suggested HYPO - no werewolf is going to want to suggest that, even though HYPO has a high chance of failing if the town does not commit.

I don't have anything definite for Kiyo - rather, it's just his general playstyle that makes me think he's town. He's incredibly aggressive, but with the exception of his latest lynch on Emily, he's always provided reasoning for his targets. He also hasn't posted anything unless it's something to contribute (if i'm remembering correctly), no filler "hey im gonna make a reads post" "hey real life fucking sucks" "im sorry ive been real busy" - something mafia often do so that they don't get lynched. It's like.... he doesn't care what others think of him, he wants to state his opinion and convince others of it. If he does that, he's fine. That's terrible scum play. Given that Kiyo has been right on the money for two of our lynches (he lynched Emily on the last day, so he wasnt on the mislynch there), he's obviously a smart/perceptive player, so I highly doubt he would be playing like that if he was scum.

Emily R. wrote:Honestly to me it's like

1) Kiyo disobeyed Victor, I said wtf???? and I'm wrong.

2) Have you posted why I am scum?

3) Can I not defend myself at all because this is a crucial day yet you hastily lynch and I can't be like wtf??? because thay seems scummy to you.

/me rant over and will have actual discussion when on com

I think he quoted that because of your response (it was very Zach-like).
....Which doesn't actually show us anything, just that you really don't want to be lynched (which makes sense regardless of your role at this point - every faction has a decent chance to win right now).

Kiyo, do you have any reasoning to lynch Emily other than what has already been stated by others?

Moe P. wrote:What is this rand lynch city?

Posted at start of day 1 when the only lynches were on zach and from zach
Thats why I think that Moe is Final Mafia.

This leaves 1 ww between Emily and Shingo (I doubt that both) and one between me Kyle and Victor.
Almost everything she says is scummy and she counted the hypos which will only bring one type of info. which is who got "Not WW" on a ww and cant be seer.

Victor W. wrote:Ok, we can establish that Kyle and Kiyo are not mafia, yes?
I think Kyle is town/not WW not only for his play but also because he suggested HYPO - no werewolf is going to want to suggest that, even though HYPO has a high chance of failing if the town does not commit.

As to whether or not they are mafia - Yes, it is very unlikely that either of them are mafia because in the case either of them are mafia, they'd have bus'd both of their partners lol

Kyle being clear of WW for suggesting HYPO d1 is hardly a reason. Yes, it makes him seem more town, I even said as much d1, but Kyle hasn't done much as of late. Where are your reads at Kyle

Emily R. wrote:Kiyo, I would prefer if you elaborate on your lynches. Also, didn't Victor just said NO ONE LYNCH???????????? Rushing to lynch anybody doesn't help right now. ._. Anyways, i would like to know why Victor thinks Kiyo is clean (Kyle i understand but an explanation would still be nice).

Again, why is Kyle clean lol

I dunno, I get a towny vibe from Kyle's play and it doesn't really make sense for him to be scum in my eyes because he doesn't really have a connection to any players that could be scum (maybe Emily, i guess, but it's a weak connection).
So Moe, do you agree with my assessment of Kiyo or not?

Victor W. wrote:I dunno, I get a towny vibe from Kyle's play and it doesn't really make sense for him to be scum in my eyes because he doesn't really have a connection to any players that could be scum (maybe Emily, i guess, but it's a weak connection).
So Moe, do you agree with my assessment of Kiyo or not?

I can't refute the fact that Kiyo's "guns blazing" style doesn't seem like something scum would do. I just want to see more substantial reads coming from him, other than my first post after the game began, in reference to the Zach lynch.

Don't dodge the question, i'd like a yes or no answer. If no, explain why.

Votecount 4.1
******************************
Emily R.(1)- Victor W.
Shingo E.(0)-
Kiyo H.(0)-
Victor W.(0)-
Kyle L.(0)-
Moe P.(0)-
Not Voting(5)- Shingo E., Kyle L., Moe P., Emily R., Kiyo H.
******************************
There are 8 alive so it takes 5 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Monday the 7th at 9pm EST.
If the deadline was now, Emily R. would be lynched.

MY LYNCH STREAK
NOOOOOOOOOOOO
I FEEL LIKE CRYING
*sulks*

Brb crying, I'll look at everyone's posts and make my decision in a bit.

GAME 18's TOWN IS AHEAD!! GRR

THEY ONLY LYNCHED ONE SCUM AND THEY LYNCHED THEIR SEER AND THEYRE AHEAD JUST BECAUSE WW KILLED SCUM TWICE.
SO FRUSTRATED AHHH

I built the courage to read through everything.

What are your reasons for your suspects? Its hard to make a decision I FEEL SO BAD I'M SORRY HUNTER

I've been observing Victor's posts lately and they really confuse me. I can see him as scum because if he is, he's sorting me and Kiyo on possible lylo but I have a really good feeling that he is not, looking at some posts, they just seem like things only a townie would say

I DON'T KNOW, GUYS. I DON'T WANT TO DO SOMETHING WRONG AND FAIL TOWN.

Kyle L. wrote:THEY ONLY LYNCHED ONE SCUM AND THEY LYNCHED THEIR SEER AND THEYRE AHEAD JUST BECAUSE WW KILLED SCUM TWICE.
SO FRUSTRATED AHHH

Pshhh, we're better scumhunters.

Kyle L. wrote:I built the courage to read through everything.

What are your reasons for your suspects? Its hard to make a decision I FEEL SO BAD I'M SORRY HUNTER

I've been observing Victor's posts lately and they really confuse me. I can see him as scum because if he is, he's sorting me and Kiyo on possible lylo but I have a really good feeling that he is not, looking at some posts, they just seem like things only a townie would say

I DON'T KNOW, GUYS. I DON'T WANT TO DO SOMETHING WRONG AND FAIL TOWN.

Who's the first part directed at?
What do you mean by "sorting" you and Kiyo (townreading you two?)
If you worry about screwing up, you probably will, so just do what you've been doing on the non-hunter lynches and you ought to be fine.
Except find the wws, not the mafia

ffs guys we're in a lylo situation (if we don't lynch ww, we lose and only get to pick who wins between mafia/wws unless ww hits mafia) so we need people to talk....