Re: Game 31: Separated Scum

by Ed S. Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:03 pm

I will probably not be online at deadline. I do not know when I will have to leave. I will try to place my vote prior.

by Ed S. Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:47 pm

I'm wondering if Roderick came on, saw a vote on Wilkinson, and thought he could quickhammer or something without noticing Kodama's unlynch.

Wilkinson's thought process is poor, but following said mindset would in fact lead him to react in the way he did, albeit he'd do this as town or scum. Wilkinson not defending any of the scummy thing's he's done is bad.

I'm honestly leaning towards a Roderick/Wilkinson scumteam slightly more now. Wilkinson's motivation for changing to null on Mona is a reread of the thread, which is possible but also comes at a time when it coincidentally sheeps "consensus" only really me and Kodama have given reads on Mona, and they have some contrast.

The most to least likely scumteams, in my opinion, are Roderick/Wilkinson>Roderick/Kodama/Wilkinson/Mona. I'm being "pressured" (read: harassed) to get offline now, so I will Vote Roderick.

by Kodama N. Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:20 pm

Ugh. I seriously don't know what to do rn >.>

SOMEONE PLEASE COME ONLINE .-.

by Kodama N. Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:22 pm

I just woke up... and yeah. I'm screaming so loudly internally. >.>
Whatever. Let's go for it. Well, if Ed and Mona are the scumteam then gg, you guys played really well but now I shall
Vote Roderick since he is my top scumread / OS Vig read.

prays ~~btw, good job guys, we're on Page 16 and game 30 is on Page 14~~

I'M GOING TO REGRET THIS SO MUCH AREN'T I

by Ed S. Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:48 pm

I'm here. I'm screaming. AJ, save us.

by **ajhockeystar** Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:05 pm

Votecount 4.3
******************************
Roderick S.(3)- Mona L., Ed S., Kodama N. HAMMER!
Wilkinson A.(1)- Roderick S.
Kodama N.(0)-
Mona L.(0)-
Ed S.(0)-
Not Voting(1)- Wilkinson A.
******************************
There are 5 alive so it takes 3 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Sunday the 16th at 9pm EST.

Roderick S. was lynched.

he was the...:

by **ajhockeystar** Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:35 pm

the death last night was of...:

by Ed S. Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:36 pm

NONONONONONONO.

I'm getting this right. I'm not choking.

Also, I am the Compulsive Vigilante.

by Ed S. Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:43 pm

I have some explaining to do regarding my godawful shots.

I lost my wallposts I was making each night about why I was shooting each person (lost them during the Grand Assault on my Computer), but here is the one for Kodama. I was planning on shooting Wilkinson prior to typing this out.

First, I went through Roderick’s posts. Only Roderick #2’s really, as Roderick #1 was only active D1 and was thus useless as far as interactions went. The basic conclusion is that I think he was softing a scum inspect on Rhonda and subtly defending her through D3, while also trying to convince anyone he could to shift to Wilkinson with him.

Spoiler:

TL;DR the most likely situation I think:

N1: Roderick #1 inspects one of Wilkinson/Rhonda
N2: Roderick #1 or #2 inspects the person not mentioned above
N3: Roderick #2 inspects me to ensure he’s not pushing a scumteam that includes a partner.

After this, I examined the possibilities of a scumteam with Roderick+Rhonda+each person.

Mona:

Spoiler:

Kodama:

Spoiler:

Wilkinson:

Spoiler:

by Ed S. Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:49 pm

I'll quickly summarize the other shots. They mostly come down to me doubting myself and recency bias.

Night 1 I was between Mr. Honcho, Wilkinson, and Kazalie and ultimately ended up shooting Kazalie due to concluding her comments to be potential softs (the ones I pointed out d1).

Night 2 I was between Rhonda and Magnus, and effectively switched to Magnus last second largely due to wanting to see more from Rhonda and recency bias regarding Magnus.

Night 3 I hedged between Mona and Maria basically right up to deadline (I really don't trust my skills as Vig) and Maria was the one I had PMed most recently at the time of deadline.

by Kodama N. Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:27 pm

Well... Okay. >.>
Good luck, town!
I tried my hardest, and I hope you guys will too.
bah.

by Ed S. Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:53 pm

That bah post, and Maria's gives me the feeling there's going to be a lot of Ed hate in the reveals chat.

I should mention that were I to lynch at this exact moment, I'd lynch Wilkinson due to his individual scumminess outweighing Mona's.

by Mona L. Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:43 am

okay so first I want to know if Wilkinson wants to cc Ed, as that is still a relevant question.

Then I am going to say that I am surprised. Not about the Roderick flip, but the fact that after the Roderick flip, Kodama turned out to be town.

Until we know whether Wilkinson CC's ed or not, I can't say for certain who is scum. If he does, then there's a dilemma, if he doesn't then Wilkinson must be scum (at least from my perspective).

I will say though that a Wilkinson + Roderick scumteam wouldn't actually be that surprising though. After all, if you and your scum buddy are seen as the scummiest people, you are probably going to lose. Unless you bus your buddy to make people believe that whichever of you doesn't die that day is town. Roderick might have seen it as the only way out. A sacrifice to win the game.

This especially makes sense if you take into account that Wilkinson, who was so eager to lynch Rhonda before, did not lynch Roderick. It was a choice between Roderick and Wilkinson, and Wilkinson did not lynch. Now that could definitely be because of Kodama hammering before deadline, but it is still something to keep in mind. Earlier with Rhonda he talked about how it was lylo and we had to lynch, and he lynched quite early. Yesterday with Roderick I'm pretty sure he didn't even talk about lynching, at all. It was between him and Roderick, that much was obvious, and yet he didn't lynch.

The only reason I can think of why someone wouldn't lynch when it's plylo and it's between them and someone else, is if that someone else is their scumbuddy and they are not on board with the bussing plan.

If Wilkinson ends up cc'ing Ed I'll talk about how Ed as scum might work, though at that point I guess I'd be the one deciding and it would mostly be to make my thoughts clearer for myself, if Wilkinson does not cc Ed, I guess to me at least it's clear who's scum.

Again, my thoughts are a bit jumbled, but considering I'm still alive in 3p plylo/mylo I guess everyone's used to it by now or something.

by Wilkinson A. Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:12 am

Ok, so I do not CC Ed S.

Which leaves this as LyLo between me and Mona, with Ed S. as the clear.

Lynch Mona

Why would you consider me and Roderick interactions in deciding scumteams when he's a traitor and I would be a normal Mafia?

Secondly, I believe I was the more scummier of the two, why would he offer himself up when he can just as easily BS something at me, assuming we somehow know each other.

Why would you be expecting me to lynch Roderick when the chance of a quickhammer is from Kodama is real? It was between me, Roderick and Kodama, even though the choices were still pretty much between me and Roderick, I'm not planning to take unneccesary risk.

by Ed S. Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:25 am

Well, I was hoping someone would cc because I felt like that would be easier, but ¡nope!

The problem I have with Roderick voting Wilkinson as a sacrifice is that even if he inspected Wilkinson and got a Guilty inspect, he could have at most by day three only inspected one of Rhonda or Kodama and there are few scenarios I can imagine where Roderick starts pushing Wilkinson's lynch the second he subs in (unless Kodama is the hidden miller and he inspected Kodama+Rhonda). The point about Wilkinson's contrast between his willingness and unwillingness to lynch makes sense, though.

As far as bussing goes, there's no doubt that it happened (either Mona bussed Roderick or Wilkinson bussed Rhonda, regardless of if the bussing was intentional or not).

So, question to Wilkinson: You said during D3 that "it's LyLo and we have to lynch" and used this as motivation to vote Rhonda. Yesterday was also LyLo, so why the change in attitude re: lynching?

Also Wilkinson, you're pointing out Mona talking about interactions when that's something I've been doing since Day Three and that's been happening since Day Two (see Maria's original interpretation of my read on Roderick). Why is it only now, when it pertains directly to you, that you have a problem with it?

Time to read tf back.

by Ed S. Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:35 am

Also hold up.

Wilkinson A. wrote:
Why would you consider me and Roderick interactions in deciding scumteams when he's a traitor and I would be a normal Mafia?

I can't tell if this is an attempt to fake townslip or not, but you realize all scum in this are Traitors, right?

by Ed S. Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:00 am

Ed S. wrote:
After multiple requests for Wilkinson to go into more detail with his reads, we've only gotten one liners again. He's handwaving away his reaction to Kodama's vote with "oh didn't see it was pressure rip." Other than that, his only "scumread" is Roderick, and he doesn't actually call Roderick scum, just notes his activity and that he's potentially the other lynch target. I'm glad he's still posting and responding, but that fact in itself is NAI now, as he'd feel pressured to contribute regardless of alignment.

Wilkinson, you said Kodama was taking advantage of your scumminess to push you. AKA lynching you because you were scummy. This was an incorrect interpretation, but even if it were right what's wrong with lynching someone scummy? And why wouldn't you proceed to explain prior scummy actions? That, in my opinion, is better to try and say that you don't approve of someone's reasoning (*cough* Mr. Cheeves). You came across as trying to discredit the person instead of their read, which doesn't answer for anything you've done that was scummy.

I fixed typos. But this still applies and I've bolded areas of interest.

by Mona L. Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:00 pm

I too was hoping on a cc to make things easier, which is why I tried to rile Wilkinson up with the "you cc or you're scum" thing, but I guess it didn't work. So now we are left to "convince Ed that I'm the town", and I'm sorry Ed but I don't really trust your judgement, even after your explanations of night kills. But I guess we don't really have a choice now.

lynch Wilkinson

because we are going to do a good old 3p lylo I guess.

Anyways I'm not sure how someone would forget that this theme is all about traitors, and honestly a mafia with only one kill is no different from a traitor with one kill when the others are all traitors. So I would say that he's trying to seem like he doesn't even know the roles when at this point we've had a lot of discussions about the roles and the implications of them. It simply doesn't make sense to not know at this point, and considering Wilkinson specifically says normal mafia, this isn't just saying mafia because of lazyness or whatever. God knows I myself have had to stop myself from saying mafia out of habit.

Wilkinson, I believe I talked about how he didn't exactly offer himself up, rather he was putting up an ultimatum of sorts, choose between you and Roderick. He tried to get you lynched, he failed. That is what I was talking about, the fact that he was probably trying to bus you. You couldn't both survive and win the game unless you pushed Kodama, but Roderick didn't do that for whatever reason. I guess another option would be Kodama as hidden miller while Roderick hadn't inspected you, making him think that this was the easy way to get a kill on town. Because he definitely tried, so no, it wouldn't make sense for him to sacrifice himself, but it would make sense that with the two of you being scum, he would do this to get out of a very tight situation.

I would say that considering one of the first things you did when you entered the game was lynch Rhonda, it wouldn't be surprising if you had lynched Roderick early in the day too. Before there was a chance of quickhammer. And you said it yourself, the only real options were you, Roderick and Kodama, at least yesterday. I suppose Ed could still be considering killing me. From your perspective, what difference does it make? Unless you believed YESTERDAY that out of me and Ed one might be scum (which I can't look up right now for lack of time) either option should have been fine for you, and there shouldn't have been any problem in lynching Roderick.

Anyways, at this point really the only discussion left is for convincing Ed. So Ed, if you have any questions, no matter how small, do ask. It would suck if you lynched me or if you didn't do anything at all, letting plurality fall on me, simply because you couldn't get all the answers you wanted in time. You don't even need to tell us what you're thinking if you don't have time for that, though it would be appreciated so we can still correct you if you misunderstood something (as that did happen a lot with me).

Wilkinson, if you have anything about me to point out which you feel is scummy, you should. It's lylo and even though I am now 100% sure that you are scum, it would be nice if I had a chance to respond to anything that anyone notices about me as I don't have a lot else to do, except perhaps look for more strange things with Wilkinson, though I feel like I'd end up nitpicking a lot.

I have run out of time so I will be back tomorrow, hopefully at a bit of a different time so I can actually check on stuff like what Wilkinson's reads from yesterday were.

by Ed S. Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:49 pm

I have little time at the moment, so all I can say is that I do intend to read the game in full and compile questions to ask.

by Wilkinson A. Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:35 am

Re: Interactions, I took the previous ones with a grain of salt as well, given the number of stars needed to align for us to figure out who is interacting with who. I don't feel like LyLo should include such "What If" situations and more "Why did you..." arguments.

I was more rushed Day 3 as I was informed it was nearing DL and the threat of a No Lynch loomed. Day 4 was more slow-paced, and I did not anticipate my inability to arrive before DL came, so I was less hasty to lynch, and was mostly trying to clear up questions and accusations.

I already said that as the main scummy bit about was not contributing, there really isn't a lot I can defend about that. I'm trying to fix that as of now but then the only real option to stave off my lynch was by pointing out whatever was wrong with said lynch

by Ed S. Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:59 am

Here's a "why did you" then: Why did you not bring up the concern with interaction theory earlier?

There was no threat of a No Lynch in sight on any day, so I'm not sure where you're getting that from.

What you pointed out what that Kodama was "taking advantage of" your being scummy to "bs" a lynch. What I'm failing to see is how a lynch is bs if it's because someone found you scummy.

I'm beginning the reread.

by Mona L. Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:22 am

Okay so I checked on Wilkinson's reads.

Wilkinson, yesterday when talking about reads you only read Wilkinson as scum. Why then were you afraid of Kodama quickhammering Roderick if you were to lynch? Surely since you said yourself that it was between you and Roderick (at least you said so yesterday) it wouldn't be wise to risk your own death by waiting so long to lynch. And as you had a town lean with Kodama I am not sure why you thought Kodama might quickhammer. You waiting with a lynch yesterday but not with Rhonda doesn't make sense.

You apparently got info about a no lynch looming (which would be easy enough to check) and deadline fast approaching (which would be easy enough to check). This does not explain how little you seemed to consider everything before lynching Rhonda, and how you didn't even end up lynching anyone yesterday.

by Ed S. Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:38 pm

So far, I see very little I want to ask people that I have not asked already. Something that has occurred to me though:

Let's assume that, as I proposed D3, that Mona and Rhonda were scum who knew each other. Roderick would thus be the third scum, and he commented that Mona and Rhonda were likely 1 scum and 1 town. It's likely in my opinion that he inspected Rhonda, and the implication from that comment would then be that he had at least inspected Mona as well (despite his continual push on Wilkinson). It's possible that he was trying to postpone a read on Mona to inspect her that night, but at the time he said this there was a somewhat realistic chance that he could move the lynch off of Rhonda.

If Roderick inspected Mona and got her as town, this comment makes sense for him to make and it also means he doesn't know his second partner. This could steer him away from a popular lynch and towards forming a wagon that wouldn't gain traction. However, he was on some level pushing for Wilkinson's lynch so this clearly wasn't a concern of his and supports that he actually inspected Wilkinson as town.

If Roderick inspected Mona and got her as scum, he may have reason to worry that she is the hidden miller. It still makes sense for him to comment on them being 1 scum and 1 town in this case. However, given that Roderick seemed to be trying to soft to Rhonda that he inspected her, it's unlikely he thought she was the hidden miller. He'd thus try to soft to Mona as well, but there's nothing in his ISO that seems like that.

If Roderick didn't inspect Mona, it's possible he was postponing a read on her until he inspected her, but this has problems for reasons stated above. His ignores his thoughts on Mona/Rhonda as town/scum in favor of a PoE read during D4 (which could be cause for alarm), but I'm not expecting Mona to be able to answer for something Roderick did.

Wilkinson, the few reasons I haven't lynched you yet are wanting to read back and wanting your defense. I'm almost done reading back, so if you have any reasons as to why you are town or Mona is scum the time to list them would be now. And then comes the obvious follow up question for if you do: Why did you not mention these things earlier in the game?

by Ed S. Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:39 pm

Also Wilkinson: no stalling on it this time, because I will lynch you if we get to deadline and you haven't given said reasons.

by Ed S. Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:49 pm

Maria S. wrote:
Maria S. wrote:Also mona u say you think both kodama and rhonda are both scum, so then why are you so torn? Surely in your perspective you have absolutely no worries in lynching either one?
I should probably make my point clearer here, you're absolutely right that hammering right now is silly coz you just cut precious discussion time. You already have your lynch on kodama and you say you're torn between kodama and rhonda yet you know you cant lynch rhonda anyway (you can, just not a good idea). So why the need to say you're torn between the two? Its a fair assumption that you arent changing your kodama lynch and you even said that both are scum in your eyes so in your perspective you're fine with either one getting lynched. It feels as though you said it in order to perhaps make us believe you arent buddying with rhonda. I mean it's fine to give reasons as to why you think both are scum which i thought is great but its the opening bit that i am not liking.

Here's a question I had for Mona actually that I don't think got answered due to Maria's death.

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