Game 6: Black Flag Nightless

Yeah, the one that sticks in my mind is Satchel + Areal because of the quick defense that Areal had when Satchel was first being questioned. The others, I will need to go back and take a closer look.

How detailed of an analysis are you planning to do? Kinda go by gut feeling for now?

Pretty detailed, but then again tge other guys who havent given their opinion of the events should give as it helps a lot with the analysis

Yeah, that means Bailey, Hajime, Huromi, and Yuriko, welcome to the game!

Who me?

Nothing was directed at you, just reinforcing that "other guys who haven't given their opinion on the events" should do so!

Oh right ok

Although I don't believe Jeanette is scum, I have to bring it up, as she is as suspect as everyone else at this point: no one is confirmed.

As for Jeanette, she is the conversation leader a this point. She has worked very well with me (looking from an objective point), Mason, and Chaz. She has recently deemed Duplica town. She has not worked well with Satchel.

I believe it is very possible that Mason, Jeanette, and Chaz are the mafia. Chaz's "plan" could have been a subtle attempt to warn Jeanette of something if Chaz was unaware of the PM system here. Mason and Jeanette immediately decided each other were town seemingly based upon their activity level and pro-town portrayal, which any mafia could portray. This went overlooked because they did portray a very town-sided view, and were the only regular posters.

Of course, I see the holes in my theory. Chaz's "plan" was probably a late lynch, which could easily have been mafia or town. Chaz's "plan could also have been something like a player analysis that would be released last-minute so the mafia can't counter it, or it could have been anything else. Jeanette and mason are very likely to be very pro-town townies that are also very active players.

It is also possible that Jeanette is working with Satchel and trying to destroy any positive ties there.

I do not believe that Jeanette or Mason are mafia. Chaz raises a red flag with his "plan," but I'm not about to lynch him. Satchel also seems a little scummy, but I think he is town. Despite this, if no one brings up Jeanette's and Mason's possible suspicion and they are mafia, we will be completely routed. Right now everyone is a suspect, not just the people who don't talk constantly.

BTW, happy tenth page!    

My comments will be in bold.....

Areal I. wrote:Although I don't believe Jeanette is scum, I have to bring it up, as she is as suspect as everyone else at this point: no one is confirmed.

cheers for stating the obvious

As for Jeanette, she is the conversation leader a this point. She has worked very well with me (looking from an objective point), Mason, and Chaz. She has recently deemed Duplica town. She has not worked well with Satchel.

thats true

I believe it is very possible that Mason, Jeanette, and Chaz are the mafia. Chaz's "plan" could have been a subtle attempt to warn Jeanette of something if Chaz was unaware of the PM system here.

Hate to break it to you, but I am not that stupid

Mason and Jeanette immediately decided each other were town seemingly based upon their activity level and pro-town portrayal, which any mafia could portray. This went overlooked because they did portray a very town-sided view, and were the only regular posters.

who said it was overlooked, just coz no one said it doesnt mean it was overlooked, in fact I took that into consideration myself

Of course, I see the holes in my theory. Chaz's "plan" was probably a late lynch, which could easily have been mafia or town. Chaz's "plan could also have been something like a player analysis that would be released last-minute so the mafia can't counter it, or it could have been anything else. Jeanette and mason are very likely to be very pro-town townies that are also very active players.

like I said, my "plan" will not be revealed until the right time

It is also possible that Jeanette is working with Satchel and trying to destroy any positive ties there.

I do not believe that Jeanette or Mason are mafia. Chaz raises a red flag with his "plan," but I'm not about to lynch him.

thank you very much

Satchel also seems a little scummy, but I think he is town.

ok so you are saying he is scummy to state the obvious and try to make the town people believe you and then you say he is town to clear him, kk that makes lots of sense

Despite this, if no one brings up Jeanette's and Mason's possible suspicion and they are mafia, we will be completely routed. Right now everyone is a suspect, not just the people who don't talk constantly.

BTW, happy tenth page!    

Alright so what we witness here, ladies and gentlemen, is someone who has heard that I am trying to make a plan. So it looks like she wants everyone else to think that my plan is actually trying to help mafia. We can tell that because she said "Chaz raises a red flag with his "plan" but i am not about to lynch him."

I made about in italics so people notice that she is intending or will eventually lynch me. Is it really because I mentioned her name that she rang my scum bell?

You guys realise how she stated that "satchel was scummy but still town"? Well basically she doesnt want to contradict the fact she defended satchel but she wants to contradict the mafia aims that I listed. And the evidence for this is.....why didnt she say satchel was scummy BEFORE I stated the mafia aims when the initial discussion was actually going on?....

Anyway, yes Areal rang my scum bell really loudly however I am open for discussion and defense from Areal.

I like your consideration of all options, Areal. Looking at relationships as we know them now is something that Chaz seemed like he had started a detailed analysis on, and something that I want to look at in the future. I want to point out that through an ISO of my posts ( https://psanon.forumotion.com/spa/Jeanette%20C.) I never declared Duplica town. In fact, the last post that I had regarding Duplica was this one:

Jeanette C. wrote:I am flattered that you would call Mason and I a dream team, but sadly, it is just that - a dream. I think that throughout these pages, Mason has been questioning (in a good way) and very observant. I have tended to agree with most of what Mason says - one thing that I didn't really agree with was reasoning for suspicion on Duplica. I know that several players here thought that Duplica was scum for that vote itself, including Mason. But I don't think that the vote was the problem, just Duplica's response to explaining her vote. In the end, Mason has been a solid contributor so far. I do wish that Mason would be more proactive in utilizing his vote, because he seems reluctant to give out scumreads despite his involvement in discussion. Whether this is due to being bad of scumreading like he says, or possibly being scum and avoiding a slip-up, I'm not sure.

In this post I explain that I feel uneasy about Duplica's explanation for her vote, rather than for her bandwagoning vote itself. I think her strategy of applying more pressure was fine, but the attitude/wording was off. Areal, are you sure you aren't talking about Mason deeming Duplica as town now? Because Mason recently stated that he feels much better about Duplica IIRC.

As far as my relationship with Satchel, it has kind of been one-sided. I've questioned him several times, but his only responses have been quick statements that do not go over his thought processes:

Satchel N. wrote:

Jeanette C. wrote:Oh, awesome, the game has started!

Satchel, I am curious as to what part of Mason's first after-the-game-started post seemed town. Mason urges us to not hastily bandwagon others and to discuss before we vote. Well, that should be the case for all Forum Mafia games, so I don't think there was anything particularly scum or town-motivated in that post alone. What did you see there, Satchel?

Its more town than scum.

Also what kind of town player (besides a pr), intentionally chills in order to avoid the nk?

Satchel N. wrote:Jeanette is town for obvious reasons

Satchel N. wrote:

Hajime U. wrote:well i might as well try to vote to spur some more discussion             wait thats been done  , i'm not good at discussion, so i shall flee *Hajime U. Flees*

You know, I really want to policy lynch you for this. but this is too scummy to be scum, I'm reading you as town

Satchel N. wrote:

Duplica W. wrote:Yeah, sorry.

Unvote: Areal I.

There was nothing much in that lynch, its just to get some conversation started. (Although, there is still not much people talking >.<)

@Areal I.
Yeah, I had a long day and I don't think where I stay is the best place for activity, but at least forum mafia allows me to play =P

@Everyone
This setup is basically 7 Town + 1 Mafia Goon + 1 Mafia Doublevoter (7vs3). I'm sure, we can actually afford a mislynch as Day 1 goes by. Currently, I think the only lynch would be Bailey.

Lynch Bailey

Assuming someone is mafia, if their team doesn't want one of their mafia to be lynched, they will have to vote 1 more than the vote on their friend count on someone else. Of course, after reading my post the mafia might just let Bailey (if he is mafia) die, but that would be a disadvantage. Also Bailey, when you come online, what do you think of the lynches?

I sense defensiveness, but this is town

Satchel N. wrote:I liked duplica's reasoning for her vote, it seemed pro-town

You can see that it is difficult for me to follow how Satchel arrived at his conclusions. His replies to me have been one-sided: just me asking the questions, and him answering the minimum just to get my question answered, but not to truly discuss the topics. Note his reads: for example, he claims that I am obviously town without considering any other options, unlike the thought processes that Areal is currently going over. I don't think that a scumteam of Satchel and I really makes sense (at least from my *biased* perspective) because the communication is just totally one-way.

As far as a Mason/Chaz/Jeanette scumteam, I addressed Mason and me earlier - it would completely ballsy to state right out of the gate NOT to buddy up, and then proceed to vocally townread each other that quickly. I still think Mason is a solid town contributor, wishing he would push for more scumreads.

Chaz on the other hand, has just recently started to become active. The only real interaction Chaz has had so far is with me earlier today, besides his vague posts about his "plan" yesterday. I actually felt uneasy about Chaz yesterday when he wouldn't say anything on his mind, and I thought that his "plan" was going to be a last-minute vote on somebody (perhaps with scum partners if Chaz was scum) without letting them get a chance to defend themselves. Pleasantly surprised that the plan turned out to be a detailed analysis instead!

But since Chaz is just now getting into the game, I would appreciate other's opinions on Chaz. Particularly, what exactly about doing a relationship analysis required Chaz to hide it for several days?

Oh I actually thought that the analysis was what Chaz's "plan" was: like a reveal of all the possible scumteams on his paper. But it sounds like that isn't the case, so disregard the last part please.

Actually you would be surprised what the plan is, but in order for it to work, I cannot mention what it is. But I'll assure you, mafia won't be pleased when it works

Votecount 1.3
************************************
Bailey E.(1): Jeanette C.
Duplica W.(0):
Hajime U.(0):
Satchel N.(0):
Huromi M.(0):
Chaz R.(0):
Yuriko P.(0):
Mason A.(0):
Jeanette C.(0):
Areal I.(0):
Not Voting(9): Hajime U., Satchel N., Huromi M., Areal I., Chaz R., Yuriko P., Mason A., Bailey E., Duplica W.
************************************
There are 10 people so it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline is Monday the 5th at 9pm EST.

DEADLINE IN JUST OVER 4 HOURS!!!

Plurality applies. If the deadline was now, Bailey E. would be lynched.

Chaz R. wrote:
Alright so what we witness here, ladies and gentlemen, is someone who has heard that I am trying to make a plan. So it looks like she wants everyone else to think that my plan is actually trying to help mafia. We can tell that because she said "Chaz raises a red flag with his "plan" but i am not about to lynch him."

I made about in italics so people notice that she is intending or will eventually lynch me. Is it really because I mentioned her name that she rang my scum bell?

You guys realise how she stated that "satchel was scummy but still town"? Well basically she doesnt want to contradict the fact she defended satchel but she wants to contradict the mafia aims that I listed. And the evidence for this is.....why didnt she say satchel was scummy BEFORE I stated the mafia aims when the initial discussion was actually going on?....

See, I didn't want to show that Jeanette is scum, I wanted to point out that she could be scum. I wanted for everyone to keep in mind that it is very possible that she is scum, but also show that I don't believe she is.

@Jeanette: Sorry I got the impression reading page four that you were leaning toward Duplica being town.

I also think it is very possible that your response to Satchel's posts are to disassociate yourself from him.

Jeanette C. wrote:]As far as a Mason/Chaz/Jeanette scumteam, I addressed Mason and me earlier - it would completely ballsy to state right out of the gate NOT to buddy up, and then proceed to vocally townread each other that quickly. I still think Mason is a solid town contributor, wishing he would push for more scumreads.

I think Mason's agreement with you seemed arbitrary. It is, after all, pretty correct advice.

Areal I. wrote:
I also think it is very possible that your response to Satchel's posts are to disassociate yourself from him.

If it is Mafia's goal to dissociate from each other, and Satchel and I are a scumteam, then Satchel sure isn't putting in any of his own efforts to split us apart. He could be calling me out or at least defend himself from my accusations if we really wanted to distance ourselves from each other.

Instead, it's just me asking questions to who I believe is scummy, and his response is to say the least amount possible, probably to avoid incriminating himself further. That sounds like Town vs Scum to me.

CHAD Bot would be pleased if Chaz was CHAD.

...
...

Okay, back to topic, it would be nice for a day when I can come back here and talk a lot more, you guys exhausted a lot.

@Jeanette being possible scum
I'll be honest, I have thought of her being scum too, but it is a little crazy to think that a person who gathers town would be scum. However, it is still possible for a scum to be controlling the town. The scum could try and improve his mafia friends conditions by "rejecting" some scum reads if you know what I mean, but in this mafia setup I think if we successfully catch the other 2 mafia then it would be fine, won't it?

I'm on phone right now and I have to check other pages, I'll be writing another post.

It is possible that Satchel just came on to make a post, and you reacted to it with suspicion.

I want to make it clear that I don't want Jeanette (and by extension Mason, Chaz, or Satchel) to be lynched, I just want to see her possible scumminess discussed.

Duplica W. wrote:it is a little crazy to think that a person who gathers town would be scum. However, it is still possible for a scum to be controlling the town. The scum could try and improve his mafia friends conditions by "rejecting" some scum reads if you know what I mean, but in this mafia setup I think if we successfully catch the other 2 mafia then it would be fine, won't it?

This is pretty much how I feel; I think it is also possible that such mafia could also disassociate him/herself from certain people to make it completely impossible for them to seem close.

I'm all open to hear my possible scumminess discussed. So far what Duplica and Areal have brought up is just the possibility of my situation being scummy - that being a vocal opinion during the day could be a benefit for scum since they can direct who the entire town sees as scum and who they seem as town. However, my positioning has nothing to do with my actual content - just because I have said a lot so far doesn't equate to me having scummy intentions of me misguiding the village. So please bring up things that I have said, or viewpoints that I have, that seem scummy, rather than just say that being in a power position immediately makes me scum.

And yes Duplica, we only need to lynch two Mafia to win. Mafia needs town to mislynch four times to win.

@Chaz's scum aims
Other than what Jeanette pointed out, the rest is pretty much a no brainer. Not casting suspicion on you to anything but just saying.

@Chaz's suspicion on me being scum
I think I worded my messages a little, how do you put it, too messy. But if you would realize, I never worked with anyone but Jeanette. Jeanette is only because of the questions asked and there isn't much more.

Reaching school, ugh. I'll just say this though, your analyses seem to be pro town, and for now I have a town read on you.

@everyone,
Do you think a lynch in the last few hours toweek today is a good idea assuming it's possible?

Areal I. wrote:I want to make it clear that I don't want Jeanette (and by extension Mason, Chaz, or Satchel) to be lynched, I just want to see her possible scumminess discussed.

Who do you want to be lynched, then? Pretty much the only options besides the inactives are Jeanette, Mason, Chaz, Satchel, Duplica, and Areal - so you just eliminated everybody except Duplica. Pretty soon we're going to need a flip on one of the active members so that we can get much more information than just lynching an inactive, so I think you should consider more carefully if you had to lynch somebody, who you would choose.

For me personally, me switching away from Bailey onto somebody else now with so little time remaining though would not be wise because nobody would have a chance to defend themselves.

Oh and btw, aj, is there going to be a guess-who-is-who after the game ends, but before people's identities are released? I have some reads on that that I want to air...

So I guess to answer your most recent question, Areal, no I don't think a lynch in these two hours is a good idea. It wouldn't be fair for a player to be quicklynched without them giving any response whatsoever. They should at least have a chance to air out some thoughts before they are lynched.

Also, happy 99th birthday!

Areal I. wrote:Oh and btw, aj, is there going to be a guess-who-is-who after the game ends, but before people's identities are released? I have some reads on that that I want to air...

Sure! Wynaut.

UNDER TWO HOURS REMAIN!