Game 6: Black Flag Nightless

Votecount 4.2
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Areal I.(1): Huromi M.
Huromi M.(0):
Duplica W.(0):
Chaz R.(0):
Yuriko P.(0):
Mason A.(0):
Jeanette C.(0):
Not Voting(6): Chaz R., Yuriko P., Jeanette C., Duplica W., Areal I., Mason A.
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There are 7 people so it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is Tuesday the 20th at 9pm EST.

Deadline in 5 hours and 15 minutes!

Plurality applies. If the deadline was now, Areal I. would be lynched.

Huromi M. wrote:

Areal I. wrote:

Huromi M. wrote:Since we don't have a real lead at the moment, I want to point out somethings about Areal. Looking back during the early game, Areal was against the lynch of Bailey.

I don't remember whether this was "cleared up," but it was certainly mentioned before.

My defense against it is that my reasoning was that there was a 30% chance that Bailey was the mafia since we had no info about her. I figured that it was a bad idea to lynch someone who was most likely a villy, so I was against it.

This doesn't necessary clears up why you were against Bailey. Mafia cannot night kill, meaning that to gain information, we have to lynch.

Areal said this on Page 7, " I still don't understand why we are lynching Bailey. There are people that have said less and that haven't said much more. She probably just forgot about this."

Yes there are many others inactive during that time, including me. However, Bailey is also inactive. Why were you so against lynching Bailey? She has the same chance of being mafia as any other inactives. I think Areal is trying to move the attention from Bailey to others. But when she know that Bailey couldn't be saved, she stopped bringing out this point hoping town would forget about it. Therefore, I believe Areal I is the best lynch at the moment.

Lynch Areal I

I didn't think that lynching ANY inactive would help, and didn't understand why we should be lynching one. It was no folly that I was against the lynch, and it was chance that killed a mafia.

Areal I. wrote:So here is my player analysis on Huromi:

He is repeating things that everyone else has already said. His lynch reason on Satchel, his read list, and every post in between seems to be a repeat of either something that someone else has said or the general consensus.

This, no doubt, makes him seem like the scummiest player in the game. However, if you consider his position, you realize that he has come into the game late. Whether he has read the entire game so far or just a synopsis, every good point made will probably factor into his reasoning a lot more than someone who has had their own standpoint and opinions for the entire game.

Really huromi? Quote the whole thing if it is relevant, which it was. I sense YOUR defensiveness now.

I sense Areal getting a bit nervous to be honest. But I still do not quite see how Areal is mafia really.

This is enough. Thanks for convincing me on my lynch choice, Huromi!

Lynch Huromi

Areal can you say everything in one post that makes you think Huromi is scum? Also, if possible, can you do it in the other perspective? As in say everything in one post that makes Areal is scum.

You mean *say everything in one post that makes Huromi scum* @ Chaz above?

Ok sorry for not being on recently. While I do think that the instant OMGUS from Areal surprised me, Huromi on the other hand basically repeated the exact same arguments that I made right after the Bailey lynch (that Mason and Areal seemed suspicious for opposing the Bailey lynch).

Actually, now that I think about it, I wonder why the argument against Mason and Areal was that quickly dismissed at the time. It basically was me bringing it up, nobody responding to it, and the idea just died. Lemme go back and check.

Huromi M. wrote:Lynching someone abruptly would not benefit town in anyway and even arouse suspicion. If I was to lynch, I could lynch Areal or Duplica. They're both scummy in my opinion. The problem is that; what is the benefit of doing that? We still have some time to think who is the best lynch option for town.

The thing is, by the next day (if a townie was lynched), we need all of town to be active or town basically loses.

Chaz R. wrote:Lynching someone abruptly..........hmmmmm.........when did I see that before....OH YEAH!!! when huromi came out of the blue and lynched satchel. Oh and also, how can you be sensing defensiveness from Areal if she is ATTACKING you? The only one who is defending is yourself.

TBH, the entire town was bandwagoning. But yes, Huromi did come in randomly to lynch.

Chaz R. wrote:Interesting, Huromi went as far as actually lynching Areal. Well Huromi, i still do not understand, why is it that you share this same characteristic with Duplica? That you just go ahead and lynch someone without much discussion from most people. Is it because you planned to do that so that you can finish town quicker?

Partly pressure and self-defense, I would assume. As AJ said, if no one lynched, Huromi would be lynched himself. Regardless of whether one is a villy or a mafia scum, they would obviously want to live. Also, I did my quick lynch because if no one was lynched, a random person would. Imagine if that person turned out to be you. Lynching a person who was thought to be a mafia at that time (or at least Areal thought it was fine), would help town. No?

Chaz R. wrote:Fair enough, its exam week at the moment for me too so I am a bit sloppy with the activity

It was for me last week. Afterwards, if there is a flip of town on either side, I will compile a list for town.

Duplica, what are your thoughts on Huromi vs. Areal? Your recent posts sound like you lean towards Huromi being scum.

Its more of a Huromi and Me vs Areal, as two people already classified it as such. Therefore, I'm more inclined to help Huromi. However, I'm still against Huromi in that sense.

Okay so let me get some votes straightened out, in chronological order:

Day 1
Duplica lynches Areal
Jeanette lynches Bailey
Duplica unlynches Areal, lynches Bailey
Duplica unlynches Bailey
Not Voting: Areal, Duplica, Mason, Chaz, Satchel, Yuriko, Huromi, Hajime, Bailey

Day 2
Satchel lynches Hajime
Jeanette lynches Satchel
Areal lynches Satchel
Duplica lynches Satchel
Huromi lynches Satchel
Mason lynches Hajime
Not Voting: Chaz, Yuriko, Hajime

Day 3
Duplica lynches Huromi
Hajime lynches Huromi
Huromi lynches Duplica
Huromi unlynches Duplica, lynches Hajime
Duplica unlynches Huromi, lynches Hajime
Areal lynches Hajime
Mason lynches Hajime
Not Voting: Chaz, Jeanette, Yuriko

Day 4 (TBD)
Huromi lynches Areal
Areal lynches Huromi

There is something that has been bothering me. In Day 3, as shown above, Duplica and huromi lynch each other, then unlynch later to lynch hajime as an agreement occured. But, looking through the posts, hardly any solid evidence was presented in that discussion (of barely any posts) doesn't it scream like Huromi and Duplica made it like a "drama scene" to contradict my scum aims?

Duplica W. wrote:Its more of a Huromi and Me vs Areal, as two people already classified it as such. Therefore, I'm more inclined to help Huromi. However, I'm still against Huromi in that sense.

Sorry I'm still not following this. You are more inclined to help Huromi, but in /what/ sense are you still against Huromi?

Also Chaz that is a good point. Looking back at page 26 (where the unlynching --> relynching of Hajime occurred) shows that only eight hours passed after Huromi switches her lynch. In fact, the relynch by Huromi is not due to any questioning/pressure from any other players. The only thing that caused Huromi to switch her lynch is this thought that Huromi posts:

Huromi M. wrote:I don't really know who to lynch between Duplica and Hajime. My scum reads tell me that Duplica is mafia but seeing how Hajime calls out others as "mafia" and doesn't provide real proof, he is also very scummy.

The thing is - given that Duplica and Huromi did not outwardly express any desire to vote Hajime together, how is it that Duplica and Huromi are now grouped together as a scumteam? Even before Chaz brought up this voting oddity, people grouped Duplica and Huromi together and I guess I wasn't here to experience first-hand how that came about. It's weird to me given that during these Day 3 votes it doesn't seem like Duplica and Huromi were together at all on the surface. Chaz, could you explain maybe?

Also, interestingly Duplica is the only player that has been active in all of the lynches so far (active as in actually using her vote). She has been pretty flip-floppy, as evidenced by the numerous times she has changed her vote around. She has a weird pattern going on: she took her vote off the lynch for when a Mafia was being lynched. Then, she bandwagons on a flip that turned out to be scummy (bandwagon just by looking at the voting order, not necessarily by content right now). Finally, she switches her vote to vote ALONG WITH the person she was just voting before. (I am not as well versed in the Day 3 events so I'm not sure specifics as to how that organically sprung out). Just from this voting analysis alone, Duplica seems really fishy.

Meanwhile, we have Chaz that has not utilized his vote at all this game. Why is that, given that you've contributed significantly so far? (Yuriko also has never voted, but I doubt she ever will.)

OK, here's my scum evidence on Huromi.

First, the weird, out-of-nowhere lynch was odd, but it was thoroughly conversed about.

Second, Huromi seemed to be in-sync with Duplica. Duplica had one post where she quoted Huromi's scumread on Hajime and asked whether this was a good lynch. I know it isn't much, but it said to me, "Huromi and i talked and came up with this. What do you think? A more substantial instance of their connection is when Huromi came on for the first time since his role confirmation, and his first post was townreading Duplica. The quotes are below.

Duplica W. wrote:

Huromi M. wrote:I think our best lynch at the moment is Hajime. He is very inactive and even though he has posted, it doesn't necessary prove anything or contributes to town.

For Town: What do you think guys? Do you want to lynch someone else, keep him lynched, or no lynch for today? We still have (I think) about 28 hours to deadline.

Huromi M. wrote:I'll write my thoughts of Duplica. I'm leaning towards Duplica as town because of the fact that she bandwagoned the lynch on Bailey. Yes, that may sound like what a mafia would do... However, I think that there was absolutely no reason for her to risk herself being suspected by others if she is a mafia. Therefore, I think she is town-sided. The 2 people I'm suspecting right now is Hajime and Satchel. I'll go back and read their posts.

Then, Huromi decided to go on an all-out attack on me, during which he said this:

Huromi M. wrote:

Areal I. wrote:@ Duplica/Chaz: That, or a repeat of day one.

@Huromi: That read list helps us out a lot with reading you and I thought it brought up good points. If everyone were to do a similar post, then scumhunting would be a much smoother operation.

@Jeanette: We haven't seen you in a couple of days. What are your thoughts on the conversation between Chaz and me and Huromi's read list?

@Everyone: It seems like Duplica, Hajime, and I are the main scum right now. if Hajime and Yuriko could post their thoughts (preferably in a read list format), we would have everyone present and there wouldn't be the confusion of, "We don't have enough information on this player."

Areal I. wrote:So here is my player analysis on Huromi:

He is repeating things that everyone else has already said. His lynch reason on Satchel, his read list, and every post in between seems to be a repeat of either something that someone else has said or the general consensus.

If anyone is wondering why I lynch Areal, I think we have sufficient evidence. So Areal said that my scum reads brought up good points, but then also said that my scum read is basically a repetition of what others have said? I think that is a bit contradictory.

The final quote of mine he mentioned here was incomplete. Here it is in its entirety:

Areal I. wrote:So here is my player analysis on Huromi:

He is repeating things that everyone else has already said. His lynch reason on Satchel, his read list, and every post in between seems to be a repeat of either something that someone else has said or the general consensus.

This, no doubt, makes him seem like the scummiest player in the game. However, if you consider his position, you realize that he has come into the game late. Whether he has read the entire game so far or just a synopsis, every good point made will probably factor into his reasoning a lot more than someone who has had their own standpoint and opinions for the entire game.

The whole quote actually townread Huromi, consistent with the first quote Huromi had. Is he framing me, or just not paying attention?

Hey guys, sorry for not posting (teachers decided to assign work AFTER exams, something I honestly wasn't expecting). I have to go for a piano lesson, but i'll check up on what's happening after that and hopefully contribute my thoughts (hopefully they'll be helpful)

Okay, so 3 minutes before the deadline, and the votes are tied 1-1. How does this happen?

Not sure. I wanted to ask AJ for clarification on the server but he disappeared.

Normally plurality means that the player that has the tied number of votes the earliest will be lynched - in this case, Huromi had lynched Areal before Areal had lynched Huromi, so Areal would be gone.

But then AJ made it sound like in the event of a tie, the player with the most votes on them previously will be lynched - in this case, Huromi had prior votes from Hajime, so that would mean Huromi would be gone.

I am unsure what rules are actually used (the tie settled with most votes on them previously could be for NLs only, not sure).

For the record, before the flip, I would want a Huromi lynch, but was looking for evidence for Areal being scum.

You know you could end the confusion and just lynch Huromi. Or you could lynch me, I suppose that's always an option...

Yeah I do know, but it's a tough spot. :c

I guess because it could be my last night here, I should probably help that town as much as possible.

First, look at the dead people's posts knowing they're honest. i thought of that too recently to use it to help, sorry.

Second, my reads on things stay around the same, but now I think huromi is scum and Hajime and Satchel are town.

Third, I would look into two of yuriko, huromi, and duplica being maf. i have stated evidence previously.

Fourth, good luck to the town.

If I die, pay attention to Huromi's cover-up of why he chose me. It may help to confirm/deny my theories.

Also note Duplica's/Yuriko's responses

Hmm a Huromi/Duplica scumteam just seems so... weird.

There is evidence pointing to and against it:

For the scumteam:
- Huromi's first game-detailed post townreading Duplica when people were questioning Duplica's towniness
- The really weird double relynch where Huromi/Duplica unlynch each other and both relynch Hajime, almost out of fabrication

Against the scumteam:
- I don't really know how they were grouped together since Duplica is being vague about being for and against Huromi at the same time
- I personally thought Duplica's Day 1 actions were town-motivated rather than scum-motivated, and so I see Duplica as more town (maybe I am blinded)