Game 19: Star-Crossed

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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Sylvester S. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:36 pm

Just to let you guys know, this game I'm going to map scumhunting evidence along the lines of information theory. I'm going to do it for sure, and I encourage you to do the same for a fun lil' change in the meta ^-^

I'll be using small tidbits of information called "teits" (tenth-bits) to crudely track evidence. Just think of it along the lines of, "Hey, Sylvester's totally sheeping behind Clark the Conductor, that's two teits against him, I'd say. Also, Misato had some nice relevant reads on everybody, minus one teit against her."

The structure is this: every person in the game has a 1/3 crude chance of being scum. Using the teit as our unit, this suggests that in order to have a 50-50 of that person flipping scum if lynched, you need...

log1.1(3) = 11.53 ~~ 12 teits of valid information.

If you have a gut feeling, please don't hesitate to express it like this; it's easier to keep track of, and really cuts through the scum tactics of mystery and illogical passion.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Sylvester S. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:36 pm

For now, everybody has 0 teits.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Clark the Conductor on Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:35 pm

is this mafia or mathia
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Lara C. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:46 pm

Clark the Conductor wrote:is this mafia or mathia

You win this game already.

Can we lynch Sylvester for trying to Math instead of Maf?
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Sylvester S. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:56 pm

Lara C. wrote:
Clark the Conductor wrote:is this mafia or mathia

You win this game already.

Can we lynch Sylvester for trying to Math instead of Maf?

Hahaha.

It's not math, it's a clever way of tracking scumtells without losing them in translation.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by ajhockeystar on Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:59 pm

Before I start the game, it has been told to me that this game has a game-breaking strategy for mafia that involves them announcing a kill in mylo prior to hammering. So I'm just announcing this rule publicly - mafia aren't allowed to announce or softclaim their kill to their partner.

Day 1 Commence!

Votecount 1.0
******************************

Katie P.(0)-
Yosuke D.(0)-
Clark the Conductor(0)-
Misato O.(0)-
Sylvester S.(0)-
Lara C.(0)-
Mateo P.(0)-
Forrest G.(0)-
Not Voting(8)- Katie P., Yosuke D., Clark the Conductor, Misato O., Sylvester S., Lara C., Mateo P., Forrest G.
******************************
There are 8 alive so it takes 5 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Friday the 13th at 9pm EST.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Misato O. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:05 pm

Ok so, I want to hear more about this mathia strat.

If 12 is to a 50/50, can we deduce a sensible number for a 75/25 or so?
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Mateo P. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:15 pm

Hi everyone
Lynch Sylvester S.
He's probably not even sylvester stalone and also he did math

Edit: Bold fail, had permission from aj
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Lara C. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:39 pm

Lynch Sylvester S.

Honestly, you shouldn't need math to scumhunt. It should be entirely based on tells, and it seems to me like the number of teits assigned is relatively arbitrary based upon however scummy you personally think an action is. So to me, something like a freudian slip would be worth 5 or 6 teits but to everyone else it may be worth only 2. SO I think math is the wrong way to go, and you bringing it in is trying to draw our attention away from actual scumtells and reads that could find a scum BEFORE they manage to kill us.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Misato O. on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:51 pm

Lara C. wrote:Lynch Sylvester S.

Honestly, you shouldn't need math to scumhunt. It should be entirely based on tells, and it seems to me like the number of teits assigned is relatively arbitrary based upon however scummy you personally think an action is. So to me, something like a freudian slip would be worth 5 or 6 teits but to everyone else it may be worth only 2. SO I think math is the wrong way to go, and you bringing it in is trying to draw our attention away from actual scumtells and reads that could find a scum BEFORE they manage to kill us.

Lara Croft brings up a good point, it's all up to interpretation. While the mathia idea is interesting, and amusing, it might not be executed correctly. However, I'm going to hold off on a lynch.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Katie P. on Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:41 am

No pun intended
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Katie P. on Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:44 am

Ayy we started.
I WAS going to suggest keeping an eye out for people trying to softclaim kills, but that's not allowed, so idc tbh
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Lara C. on Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:07 am

Katie P. wrote:No pun intended
No pun intended on what? Also, I'm a tad FoS on you, solely because I feel vanillagers wouldn't have even thought about mafia SCing kills.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Sylvester S. on Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:44 pm

Lara C. wrote:Lynch Sylvester S.

Honestly, you shouldn't need math to scumhunt. It should be entirely based on tells, and it seems to me like the number of teits assigned is relatively arbitrary based upon however scummy you personally think an action is. So to me, something like a freudian slip would be worth 5 or 6 teits but to everyone else it may be worth only 2. SO I think math is the wrong way to go, and you bringing it in is trying to draw our attention away from actual scumtells and reads that could find a scum BEFORE they manage to kill us.

Ugh, yes, I suppose that's true, its effectiveness will vary based on prior knowledge of the system :/ In which case I'll use them to privately organize my thoughts, and speak of scumtells verbally. I'll drop all mention of it. All I ask is that others consider at least trying it, you know, maybe a little? To each his own? Is that alright? It helps me, at least.

On Katie P., I don't think discussing softclaiming kills is scummy. In fact, that discussion really should have been the first order of business when the confirmation stage was up. Coordinating softs is really the only way the Mafia are allowed to communicate (except voting patterns). The only thing strange about what Katie said is that she wanted to talk about it after D1 began, not in the confirmation stage. Which is, like, not a big deal.

OMGUS FOS on Mateo for shooting down my scumhunting method just by saying "math is bad".

OMGUS Town read on Lara for using words to describe why math is bad.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Katie P. on Tue Nov 10, 2015 3:21 pm

Suprise suprise, good old me being FOSed already
I dont have much to say rn, but we will say as the game progresses
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Lara C. on Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:07 pm

Katie P. wrote:Suprise suprise, good old me being FOSed already
I dont have much to say rn, but we will say as the game progresses

My FOS on you is probably the slightest FoS possible. It's Day 1, so town is scrambling to pick up on anything. Because other people have so few posts, I'm going off just what I already have, so right now I FoS you above all else. Are you mafia? No, probably not, but until we get more posts you're the closest to it fmpov.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Forrest G. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:22 am

The "announce the kill before MyLo" was a pretty obvious thing. No softclaiming kills? This changes the way I thought this would play out since I expected scumhunting to be centered around that.

I agree with Lara C. on the mathia part.

2 days deadline? Not fun.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Katie P. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:22 pm

So. There's a 1/4 chance we hit scum, which I don't think is worth lynching for. NL?
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Katie P. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:23 pm

no Lynch
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Sylvester S. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:59 pm

Katie P. wrote:So. There's a 1/4 chance we hit scum, which I don't think is worth lynching for. NL?

I agree. As in a normal game of Mafia, we should NL and scumhunt on MyLo; I predict we'll have three of these PMyLos until Mafia lands a kill.

Either we can have 1) two consecutive days of lynching, 2) a few days scumhunting and no lynching followed by a lynching day after Mafia lands a kill, or 3) any moldable, but risky combination thereof.

IMO I think option 1 > 3 > 2.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Sylvester S. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 5:00 pm

Whups, forgot to No Lynch
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Lara C. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 6:36 pm

While I follow the logic on pushing NL, this isn't classic. Mafia won't necessarily kill tonight, so we can lynch without fear of coming closer to MyLo/LyLo tomorrow. In fact, Even in 2v4 at day, we can probably still mislynch and win the game (although the odds are 33/67)
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by ajhockeystar on Wed Nov 11, 2015 7:33 pm

Votecount 1.1
******************************

Sylvester S.(2)- Mateo P., Lara C.
Katie P.(0)-
Yosuke D.(0)-
Clark the Conductor(0)-
Misato O.(0)-
Lara C.(0)-
Mateo P.(0)-
Forrest G.(0)-
No Lynch(2)- Katie P., Sylvester S.
Not Voting(5)- Yosuke D., Clark the Conductor, Misato O., Forrest G.
******************************
There are 8 alive so it takes 5 to hammer. Plurality applies.
Deadline is Friday the 13th at 9pm EST.
If the deadline was now, Sylvester S. would be lynched.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Misato O. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 8:14 pm

No lynch

So basically, I don't trust the concept of "LOL THEY WON'T GET THE KILL THROUGH, LETS LYNCH" On mylo.

Buuutttt, It's not mylo. I think we should nl today, since we have very little info, and lynch tomorrow or the next day.
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

Post by Lara C. on Wed Nov 11, 2015 8:17 pm

Misato O. wrote:No lynch

So basically, I don't trust the concept of "LOL THEY WON'T GET THE KILL THROUGH, LETS LYNCH" On mylo.

Buuutttt, It's not mylo. I think we should nl today, since we have very little info, and lynch tomorrow or the next day.

I'm not saying use it as a strat - I'm saying it's possible. You will have to lynch on MyLo though, because if you NL, mafia gets kill and it turns into LyLo - or they don't get the kill and it remains in MyLo.


I disagree with NLing today, just because I think we could get some information based on reads/etc, but I'm fairly impartial right now.

Unlynch Sylvester S, No Lynch
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Re: Game 19: Star-Crossed

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